New UA Destinations coming soon Rumors
Apr 21, 2018, 11:10 am
#136
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Apr 21, 2018, 11:11 am
#137
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I think EWR-BLR is more likely than SFO-BLR. It's not as far and the Himalayas will make SFO-BLR very challenging. They could fly a SFO-EWR-BLR-EWR-SFO routing so they could use a 789 (like they do with IAH-SYD to get a 789). If SFO were to get an Indian destination, I think it would be BOM or DEL because these markets have more traffic and are not quite as far. BOM has no nonstop at the moment, so it's definitely possible.
Apr 21, 2018, 11:30 am
#138
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If you are talking about aircraft change this winter then I am not sure. From October 31, SFO-NRT, FRA, PEK and TPE will all use 777-200, at least according to United timetable.
Apr 21, 2018, 11:31 am
#139
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There's a 77W becoming available on Oct 27th (former SFO-TPE bird). Wonder where that bird is going. Of the cities we've discussed (BKK, SGN, MNL, DEL, BOM, BLR), which can be reached by the 77W?
Apr 21, 2018, 12:34 pm
#140
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No corroboration to offer, just speculation.
Apr 21, 2018, 12:34 pm
#141
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Apr 21, 2018, 1:39 pm
#142
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I think you do a good job of explaining why flight loads NRT/HND-BKK or ICN-BKK tell us little about what the demand would be for SFO-BKK. Lots of middle market manufacturing by Asian companies is done around BKK, and it is also a major tourist destination, and some of both of those groups will pay a premium to fly in J/F. However, there is a big difference in the price spread needed to support a flight of 2500 miles vs one that is 7918 miles. The Asian airlines can fill a plane in Y on a 2500 mile flight, and make it profitable, they don't need high priced J tickets. A ULR flight does.
And there is no way that what UA would get from mileage tickets being redeemed is anything like what they would get in discounted J. Were there to be a flight like this, I would expect J would be $7-8K RT (if not more). UA would then fill J with discounted corporate tickets selling for around $4K each. A reward ticket would be arround 180K miles, which UA books at slightly less than 1c/mile. But the actual redemption purchase paid by other *A carriers is less than that. The reality is that UA gets at best a book credit of less than $1800 (off the MP owing balance), or they get an offset for mileage used on other *A carriers that is also worth less than $1800. No way you run a ULR flight - which burns lots of cash - so as to burn off the book value of outstanding MP liability.
And there is no way that what UA would get from mileage tickets being redeemed is anything like what they would get in discounted J. Were there to be a flight like this, I would expect J would be $7-8K RT (if not more). UA would then fill J with discounted corporate tickets selling for around $4K each. A reward ticket would be arround 180K miles, which UA books at slightly less than 1c/mile. But the actual redemption purchase paid by other *A carriers is less than that. The reality is that UA gets at best a book credit of less than $1800 (off the MP owing balance), or they get an offset for mileage used on other *A carriers that is also worth less than $1800. No way you run a ULR flight - which burns lots of cash - so as to burn off the book value of outstanding MP liability.
1. There's a ton of tourists paying $2300 for J and $3500 for F for BKK<>TYO. The dollar jump to the fare for a flight to the U.S. is not that high.
2. Think you're overestimating, average J fares. There's plenty of published J fares on DL, SQ, CX for TPAC under $3500 RT. I would be surprised if UA gets much more than that RT on their corporate contracts.
3. Think the calculation on the award reservation is a little off. Your miles are high, award ticket is only 150k miles, but I'm pretty sure UA books at 1.5 cents so that works out to about $2250.... less than a J fare... but a lot better than putting non-revs or GPUs up front.
4. That said, I agree BKK would not be as profitable as SIN, which is why every penny counts and why EWR764 is off when he says it does not matter if the 789 has to fly weight restricted.
Last edited by 5khours; Apr 21, 2018 at 1:48 pm
Apr 21, 2018, 1:47 pm
#143
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Those are placeholders, still too early to tell. Considering UA has 17 frames and the only 77W routes scheduled after 1NOV18 are EWR-NRT/EWR-TLV/SFO-HKG. Of course, doesn't rule out that they might use the 77W on a brand new route.
Apr 21, 2018, 1:50 pm
#144
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The 747 was used in many instances for charters. I wonder if United is going to set aside a frame or two for DOD needs?
Apr 21, 2018, 1:57 pm
#145
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3. Think the calculation on the award reservation is a little off. Your miles are high, award ticket is only 150k miles, but I'm pretty sure UA books at 1.5 cents so that works out to about $2250.... less than a J fare... but a lot better than putting non-revs or GPUs up frontree BKK would not be as profitable as SIN, which is why every penny counts and why EWR764 is off when he says it does not matter if the 789 has to fly weight restricted.
Apr 21, 2018, 2:25 pm
#146
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I would imagine these are in place on the assumption that the 772s, if they stick, would be retrofitted with Polaris.
Apr 21, 2018, 3:15 pm
#147
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How do you known SIN does not carry any cargo? Do you know what the weight restrictions are? Are you speculating or is this based on actual knowledge? How much is a "full load of cargo"? Do you mean bulked-out? Why would the cargo demand exist westbound but not eastbound? How do you know UA wouldn't be able to carry cargo ex-SGN, KUL, BKK, etc.?
Local carriers in BKK and SGN have been precluded from launching nonstop service to the USA not because of lack of capable equipment (myth), but because both countries remain classified as Category 2 by the FAA's International Air Safety Audit (IASA) program. Absent a Category 1 rating (which is expected this year, but not official), local carriers are forbidden from launching new nonstop service to the United States.
My guess is one of those markets is coming, either SFO-BKK or LAX-SGN. Maybe both.
Local carriers in BKK and SGN have been precluded from launching nonstop service to the USA not because of lack of capable equipment (myth), but because both countries remain classified as Category 2 by the FAA's International Air Safety Audit (IASA) program. Absent a Category 1 rating (which is expected this year, but not official), local carriers are forbidden from launching new nonstop service to the United States.
My guess is one of those markets is coming, either SFO-BKK or LAX-SGN. Maybe both.
(2) I know that SIN-SFO has little cargo at times of the year because the A/C is weight limited (particularly westbound), and can not carry a full complement of passengers and cargo. Do I know exactly how limited it is? No, but we could run the weights for particular head-wind configurations, the answer would come back little too none. That said, cargo is not needed to make the flight go.
Note that it is 12,767km from SFO-BKK (LAX is 13309km). The B789 in standard configuration can fly its max payload (53,000kg) about 9500km. By 12,000km it can only carry 40,000kg. See https://bigsynthesis.com/understandi...-range-diagram. Depending on winds that can go yet lower. SFO-SIN is 13,593 km. That cuts the payload to 30,000kg.
(3) you are correct about TG and VN not currently having access, but the reason why they have worked hard to get that access is to add direct flights. See https://skift.com/2017/10/18/thai-ai...r-withdrawing/ (BKK to CA); https://onemileatatime.boardingarea....ngkok-seattle/ (BKK to SEA, which is only 7500m). It is also why they have ordered the A359.
Does UA jump, and try to head off TG? My guess is that this (given that BKK is a regional connection point, SGN is not) is the most likely add. UA has more feeder traffic ex-SFO, and SFO is about 300 miles closer and an hour less in flight time. Would I like to see it? Yes. Would I fly UA on it in PE or J to BKK (if the price is right vs other better carriers?) Yes. Would I fly it in Y on a 789? No.
you can still carry cargo, however, you would be looking at smaller allocations rather than multiple pallet shipments. Years ago, the HKG-EWR flight couldn't carry much, but always had a dedicated LD3 container that was always a go. Just about the only time I saw cargo move prior to passengers.
Agree the manufacturing situation is not the same, but...
1. There's a ton of tourists paying $2300 for J and $3500 for F for BKK<>TYO. The dollar jump to the fare for a flight to the U.S. is not that high.
2. Think you're overestimating, average J fares. There's plenty of published J fares on DL, SQ, CX for TPAC under $3500 RT. I would be surprised if UA gets much more than that RT on their corporate contracts.
3. Think the calculation on the award reservation is a little off. Your miles are high, award ticket is only 150k miles, but I'm pretty sure UA books at 1.5 cents so that works out to about $2250.... less than a J fare... but a lot better than putting non-revs or GPUs up front.
4. That said, I agree BKK would not be as profitable as SIN, which is why every penny counts and why EWR764 is off when he says it does not matter if the 789 has to fly weight restricted.
1. There's a ton of tourists paying $2300 for J and $3500 for F for BKK<>TYO. The dollar jump to the fare for a flight to the U.S. is not that high.
2. Think you're overestimating, average J fares. There's plenty of published J fares on DL, SQ, CX for TPAC under $3500 RT. I would be surprised if UA gets much more than that RT on their corporate contracts.
3. Think the calculation on the award reservation is a little off. Your miles are high, award ticket is only 150k miles, but I'm pretty sure UA books at 1.5 cents so that works out to about $2250.... less than a J fare... but a lot better than putting non-revs or GPUs up front.
4. That said, I agree BKK would not be as profitable as SIN, which is why every penny counts and why EWR764 is off when he says it does not matter if the 789 has to fly weight restricted.
Apr 21, 2018, 3:26 pm
#148
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(1) Cargo demand exists eastbound because lots of finished or components for electronics are air freighted. In turn almost nothing is air freighted westbound (except some limited produce and fresh fish/meat, nearly all to Japan, and to a lesser degree PEK, HKG, and PVG). The US not only runs a huge trade deficit, but what the US experts to the countries in question is nearly all licensing/branding or bulk goods which are shipped via ship.
(2) I know that SIN-SFO has little cargo at times of the year because the A/C is weight limited (particularly westbound), and can not carry a full complement of passengers and cargo. Do I know exactly how limited it is? No, but we could run the weights for particular head-wind configurations, the answer would come back little too none. That said, cargo is not needed to make the flight go.
Note that it is 12,767km from SFO-BKK (LAX is 13309km). The B789 in standard configuration can fly its max payload (53,000kg) about 9500km. By 12,000km it can only carry 40,000kg. See https://bigsynthesis.com/understandi...-range-diagram. Depending on winds that can go yet lower. SFO-SIN is 13,593 km. That cuts the payload to 30,000kg.
(3) you are correct about TG and VN not currently having access, but the reason why they have worked hard to get that access is to add direct flights. See https://skift.com/2017/10/18/thai-ai...r-withdrawing/ (BKK to CA); https://onemileatatime.boardingarea....ngkok-seattle/ (BKK to SEA, which is only 7500m). It is also why they have ordered the A359.
Does UA jump, and try to head off TG? My guess is that this (given that BKK is a regional connection point, SGN is not) is the most likely add. UA has more feeder traffic ex-SFO, and SFO is about 300 miles closer and an hour less in flight time. Would I like to see it? Yes. Would I fly UA on it in PE or J to BKK (if the price is right vs other better carriers?) Yes. Would I fly it in Y on a 789? No.
Agreed. My point is that to the extent that there are A/C limits (and unless there are favorable winds, and at some times they are not that strong eastbound where the cargo demand is) it makes a cargo dependent route unworkable.
I was going off the SFO-SIN pricing. Its a ULR flight. I don't think UA could make the economics work at published J fares of $3500 (and then corporate J being $2000+).
(2) I know that SIN-SFO has little cargo at times of the year because the A/C is weight limited (particularly westbound), and can not carry a full complement of passengers and cargo. Do I know exactly how limited it is? No, but we could run the weights for particular head-wind configurations, the answer would come back little too none. That said, cargo is not needed to make the flight go.
Note that it is 12,767km from SFO-BKK (LAX is 13309km). The B789 in standard configuration can fly its max payload (53,000kg) about 9500km. By 12,000km it can only carry 40,000kg. See https://bigsynthesis.com/understandi...-range-diagram. Depending on winds that can go yet lower. SFO-SIN is 13,593 km. That cuts the payload to 30,000kg.
(3) you are correct about TG and VN not currently having access, but the reason why they have worked hard to get that access is to add direct flights. See https://skift.com/2017/10/18/thai-ai...r-withdrawing/ (BKK to CA); https://onemileatatime.boardingarea....ngkok-seattle/ (BKK to SEA, which is only 7500m). It is also why they have ordered the A359.
Does UA jump, and try to head off TG? My guess is that this (given that BKK is a regional connection point, SGN is not) is the most likely add. UA has more feeder traffic ex-SFO, and SFO is about 300 miles closer and an hour less in flight time. Would I like to see it? Yes. Would I fly UA on it in PE or J to BKK (if the price is right vs other better carriers?) Yes. Would I fly it in Y on a 789? No.
Agreed. My point is that to the extent that there are A/C limits (and unless there are favorable winds, and at some times they are not that strong eastbound where the cargo demand is) it makes a cargo dependent route unworkable.
I was going off the SFO-SIN pricing. Its a ULR flight. I don't think UA could make the economics work at published J fares of $3500 (and then corporate J being $2000+).
Apr 21, 2018, 4:55 pm
#149
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OTOH routes that have high airfreight demand (and BKK and SGN both have lots of outgoing air freight) the ability (or lack of ability) to carry freight plays a part in whether a route is feasible. All everyone is saying is (1) these are not high paid traffic J destinations from the UA, (2) the range, and such casm is very high, and (3) you are not going to make up for the lack of lots of full fare J with cargo.
Apr 21, 2018, 5:01 pm
#150
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UAL had $293M in cargo revenue last quarter, it earned $147M in net income. Absent that cargo revenue, UA would be in the red.... You are right, most if not nearly all routes are not cargo dependent (and many have nearly zero cargo). My guess is that SFO-SIN carries almost no cargo, both because of MTOW issues, but also because there is less demand on that route, and certainly not demand at that extreme range. I would bet that e.g. SFO-LHR carries little to no cargo. Not a lot of flow of perishable goods or manufactured parts/goods between those city pairs.
OTOH routes that have high airfreight demand (and BKK and SGN both have lots of outgoing air freight) the ability (or lack of ability) to carry freight plays a part in whether a route is feasible. All everyone is saying is (1) these are not high paid traffic J destinations from the UA, (2) the range, and such casm is very high, and (3) you are not going to make up for the lack of lots of full fare J with cargo.
OTOH routes that have high airfreight demand (and BKK and SGN both have lots of outgoing air freight) the ability (or lack of ability) to carry freight plays a part in whether a route is feasible. All everyone is saying is (1) these are not high paid traffic J destinations from the UA, (2) the range, and such casm is very high, and (3) you are not going to make up for the lack of lots of full fare J with cargo.
SGN does have a lot of outbound opportunities, generally geared towards the garment market. Which has seen a few charters from Etihad operating SGN-ANC (I believe)-CMH.