Last edit by: WineCountryUA
This is an archive thread, the active thread is
[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight
Related thread - Understanding the United Upgrade List Comprehensively
[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight
Related thread - Understanding the United Upgrade List Comprehensively
[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight {Archive}
#4051
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: West Palm Beach, FL
Programs: UA 1k, Hilton Diamond, Marriott Titanium
Posts: 363
That ORD flight on the 1st is 7200 bucks for the two of us, I can get a PZ4 flight on 1st via EWR for 3,635.
I think I will just go for the 29th UA14 - $2,763 for two - that's a good price even if I only end up in P+, I can then view the upgrade as a bonus, just like complimentary ones on domestic flights , I guess
I keep holding out to see of the 9pm on the 29th opens up , as it is a 764 , but I risk losing the UA14 one....the games we play loi
#4052
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Los Angeles / Basel
Programs: UA 1K MM, AA EXP, Hyatt Globalist
Posts: 26,926
We've now passed the 1K and Plat windows and still no upgrade. PZ space is gone. Cabin now booked 13/24. Still hoping, but if it doesn't clear overnight I'll apply the RPU tomorrow and hope it still clears...
And I think the lesson for me...it is to take PZ space when it is offered...
#4053
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: West Palm Beach, FL
Programs: UA 1k, Hilton Diamond, Marriott Titanium
Posts: 363
UPDATE: in case you care
We've now passed the 1K and Plat windows and still no upgrade. PZ space is gone. Cabin now booked 13/24. Still hoping, but if it doesn't clear overnight I'll apply the RPU tomorrow and hope it still clears...
And I think the lesson for me...it is to take PZ space when it is offered...
We've now passed the 1K and Plat windows and still no upgrade. PZ space is gone. Cabin now booked 13/24. Still hoping, but if it doesn't clear overnight I'll apply the RPU tomorrow and hope it still clears...
And I think the lesson for me...it is to take PZ space when it is offered...
#4054
Join Date: Oct 2016
Location: SBA
Programs: UA Gold 1MM, Marriott Gold, IHG Plat, Hertz PC
Posts: 941
Always an interesting game , at least flying to ORD you have a choice, I think I would have waited too, you still have a chance, looks like only 2 seats taken in last 5 days. I always have to go though EWR - I have a 0/ lost count RPU upgrade ration LAX to EWR / EWR to LAX .
EWR-LAX on 8/31 6pm dinner flight is currently PN8, PZ2, which is one I'm keeping an eye on.
#4055
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: West Palm Beach, FL
Programs: UA 1k, Hilton Diamond, Marriott Titanium
Posts: 363
I even had a time when there was 25 open seats on a 772 LAX to EWR T-1 hour and still didn't clear lol
#4056
Join Date: Jun 2019
Location: DEN
Programs: UA 1K, Global Entry
Posts: 1
Hey all, I'm a UA 1K traveling with two non-status family members UA 960 (EWR-FRA) on 6/27 (Thurs). There sadly wasn't any PZ availability that week, so we booked W fares back on 4/3 and immediately applied 3 GPUs to the whole PNR.
Since then I've been pulling fare updates on a weekly basis to try guessing how likely we are to clear; here's a detailed spreadsheet I've been building:
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1r8pwZQTgqHXjEe5vVyZxTKVLziyaT5o8e60DXRaEpWQ/preview
(Each "block" is a snapshot in time of UA 960 on same DoW for every week out until our departure, to get an idea of trending.)
The fact that ZN has opened up recently on our 6/27 flight seems to indicate that UA doesn't expect to sell everything, which is raising my hopes a bit.
Since it's looking pretty close (I'm guessing ~40 of the 44 seats up front will be sold), a few questions are brewing in my mind:
Since then I've been pulling fare updates on a weekly basis to try guessing how likely we are to clear; here's a detailed spreadsheet I've been building:
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1r8pwZQTgqHXjEe5vVyZxTKVLziyaT5o8e60DXRaEpWQ/preview
(Each "block" is a snapshot in time of UA 960 on same DoW for every week out until our departure, to get an idea of trending.)
The fact that ZN has opened up recently on our 6/27 flight seems to indicate that UA doesn't expect to sell everything, which is raising my hopes a bit.
Since it's looking pretty close (I'm guessing ~40 of the 44 seats up front will be sold), a few questions are brewing in my mind:
- Since our PNR has 3 people, if UA only releases PZ1 at a time, will we get skipped over in favor of a single-person PNR further down on the list?
- If our chances are looking slim, I'm thinking of calling the 1K desk to split our PNR early, which gives me personally a better chance of clearing, but pretty much 0% chance of family members clearing. If I do clear this way, I'm thinking of letting my brother discreetly pretend to be me and take my upgraded seat at boarding, and I'll take his seat in the back. (I've read mixed things on this strategy here on FT, and it seems like trying to inform the FAs of what we're doing can have mixed results. So I'm thinking forgiveness-over-permission is the best route.)
- It sounds like non-CPU flights (like this TATL) will force-split our PNR at checkin, and each person will get a separate PNR while also inheriting my 1K status with the GPUs still intact. Does that mean 2/3 of us might clear?
#4057
Join Date: Apr 2014
Location: HND, NRT
Programs: UA Gold (1K 2016–2023 by miracle extensions; RIP 1K status), 1MM
Posts: 220
It's possible. That ticket would go off to the rate desk; if they're paying attention, they'd basically do the audit that I was talking about. If they're not, or if they can't figure out what happened to the ticket to get it in its current state, they might just give you the quote for a half-round-trip up-fare to W. (For example, they might assume it was an op-up or something).
So, at a minimum, I'd have the expectation that I'd need to pay the round-trip W fare if I were to call back.
The bigger concern is that some agents seem to get personally offended if they think that you're trying to "cheat" the company, so you may end up with a particularly unhelpful agent.
So, at a minimum, I'd have the expectation that I'd need to pay the round-trip W fare if I were to call back.
The bigger concern is that some agents seem to get personally offended if they think that you're trying to "cheat" the company, so you may end up with a particularly unhelpful agent.
For the return, I decided not to risk things and used that GPU, which was never taken, to upgrade to Premium Plus, which didn't require me to buy up to a specific economy fare. I consider that a huge win, Polaris one way and PP the other all on a cheap transpac econ fare for a single GPU.
Thanks again for the reassurance.
#4058
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: NY Metro
Programs: SPG Titanium, United Premier 1K
Posts: 1,601
MAN - EWR UA 80 on July 7th shows J9 JN9 C9 D9 Z9 ZN9 P4 PN0 PZ0. Have a GPU applied, 1K status. I think there are 20+ seats available so hoping for the best but the P4 has me a little worried.
#4059
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Los Angeles / Basel
Programs: UA 1K MM, AA EXP, Hyatt Globalist
Posts: 26,926
UPDATE: in case you care
We've now passed the 1K and Plat windows and still no upgrade. PZ space is gone. Cabin now booked 13/24. Still hoping, but if it doesn't clear overnight I'll apply the RPU tomorrow and hope it still clears...
And I think the lesson for me...it is to take PZ space when it is offered...
We've now passed the 1K and Plat windows and still no upgrade. PZ space is gone. Cabin now booked 13/24. Still hoping, but if it doesn't clear overnight I'll apply the RPU tomorrow and hope it still clears...
And I think the lesson for me...it is to take PZ space when it is offered...
At T-23, two people cancelled or moved flights and I was instantly upgraded. So it worked out in the end, but I wasted too much time checking the space. Should have just appleid the RPU and been done with it. I did enjoy the pesto chicken...
My return, onboard a PMUA 777-200 international, cleared at the window, and ended up leaving with several opens seats in J/F.
#4060
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: San Francisco
Programs: UA MM Plat, UA 1MM, Hilton Lifetime Gold, Marriott Gold, Hertz Gold, CLEAR, AS MVP Gold
Posts: 3,620
Final Update - flight went to 15/24 at T-24 and then all of a sudden the sweep upgraded many...but skipped me! Flight was 22/24 with me #1 on the waitlist. I don't get how that was possible. That many 1Ks on a Friday evening flight? I was on a K-fare and ended up not applying the RPU...
At T-23, two people cancelled or moved flights and I was instantly upgraded. So it worked out in the end, but I wasted too much time checking the space. Should have just appleid the RPU and been done with it. I did enjoy the pesto chicken...
My return, onboard a PMUA 777-200 international, cleared at the window, and ended up leaving with several opens seats in J/F.
At T-23, two people cancelled or moved flights and I was instantly upgraded. So it worked out in the end, but I wasted too much time checking the space. Should have just appleid the RPU and been done with it. I did enjoy the pesto chicken...
My return, onboard a PMUA 777-200 international, cleared at the window, and ended up leaving with several opens seats in J/F.
#4061
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: PHX
Programs: AS 75K; UA 1MM; Hyatt Globalist; Marriott LTP; Hilton Diamond (Aspire)
Posts: 56,455
Final Update - flight went to 15/24 at T-24 and then all of a sudden the sweep upgraded many...but skipped me! Flight was 22/24 with me #1 on the waitlist. I don't get how that was possible. That many 1Ks on a Friday evening flight? I was on a K-fare and ended up not applying the RPU...
#4062
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: West Palm Beach, FL
Programs: UA 1k, Hilton Diamond, Marriott Titanium
Posts: 363
Hey all, I'm a UA 1K traveling with two non-status family members UA 960 (EWR-FRA) on 6/27 (Thurs). There sadly wasn't any PZ availability that week, so we booked W fares back on 4/3 and immediately applied 3 GPUs to the whole PNR.
Since then I've been pulling fare updates on a weekly basis to try guessing how likely we are to clear; here's a detailed spreadsheet I've been building:
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1r8pwZQTgqHXjEe5vVyZxTKVLziyaT5o8e60DXRaEpWQ/preview
(Each "block" is a snapshot in time of UA 960 on same DoW for every week out until our departure, to get an idea of trending.)
The fact that ZN has opened up recently on our 6/27 flight seems to indicate that UA doesn't expect to sell everything, which is raising my hopes a bit.
Since it's looking pretty close (I'm guessing ~40 of the 44 seats up front will be sold), a few questions are brewing in my mind:
Since then I've been pulling fare updates on a weekly basis to try guessing how likely we are to clear; here's a detailed spreadsheet I've been building:
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1r8pwZQTgqHXjEe5vVyZxTKVLziyaT5o8e60DXRaEpWQ/preview
(Each "block" is a snapshot in time of UA 960 on same DoW for every week out until our departure, to get an idea of trending.)
The fact that ZN has opened up recently on our 6/27 flight seems to indicate that UA doesn't expect to sell everything, which is raising my hopes a bit.
Since it's looking pretty close (I'm guessing ~40 of the 44 seats up front will be sold), a few questions are brewing in my mind:
- Since our PNR has 3 people, if UA only releases PZ1 at a time, will we get skipped over in favor of a single-person PNR further down on the list?
- If our chances are looking slim, I'm thinking of calling the 1K desk to split our PNR early, which gives me personally a better chance of clearing, but pretty much 0% chance of family members clearing. If I do clear this way, I'm thinking of letting my brother discreetly pretend to be me and take my upgraded seat at boarding, and I'll take his seat in the back. (I've read mixed things on this strategy here on FT, and it seems like trying to inform the FAs of what we're doing can have mixed results. So I'm thinking forgiveness-over-permission is the best route.)
- It sounds like non-CPU flights (like this TATL) will force-split our PNR at checkin, and each person will get a separate PNR while also inheriting my 1K status with the GPUs still intact. Does that mean 2/3 of us might clear?
I have not done GPU waitlist before as I just do not book a flight until PZ space opens up (been fine so far for my 4 trips to UK a year). How do you know how many J seats are booked ? Do you just count on the seat map ?
The downside to waiting is that the price is up 250 bucks in 5 days.
#4063
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: Murder Mitten
Posts: 298
What do you think my chances are of clearing? 1K status.
YYZ-DEN
Tues Jun 11 3:45 to 5:27PM
DEN-BUR
Tues June 11 7 to 8:30PM.
YYZ-DEN
Tues Jun 11 3:45 to 5:27PM
DEN-BUR
Tues June 11 7 to 8:30PM.
#4064
Join Date: Nov 2012
Programs: BA Bronze, United 1K, HH Gold, SPG Platinum, Marriott Platinum
Posts: 3,477
#4065
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Pasadena, California
Programs: UA 1K, 1MM
Posts: 10,412
Don't quote me but ...
I would be surprised if this clears ... unless you throw an upgrade instrument at it (and even then I dunno). There are only three J seats left currently. OTOH, YYZ isn't a hub, so ...
I think that this looks pretty good. There are already 4 seats in the PZ bucket. That's not a definite indication, but I would give you decent odds on that leg.
I think that this looks pretty good. There are already 4 seats in the PZ bucket. That's not a definite indication, but I would give you decent odds on that leg.