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Originally Posted by ringingup
(Post 33857678)
By the way, does this mean I could potentially be infectious even within 24 hours from exposure?
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Daily data:
Cases 189,846 (122,186 last Friday) Deaths 203 (137) Patients admitted 1,915 (1,183 on the 20th) People vaccinated up to and including 30 December 2021: First dose: 51,771,384 Second dose: 47,412,181 Booster: 33,924,738 The rolling seven day daily average for cases is now up 48.7% on the previous week and the same measure for deaths is down 5.3%. The rolling 7 day daily average for deaths is 108.0 today. All nations are reporting today. |
So the death rate per week went today to 756, whereas yesterday it was 690 due to the relatively high 203, around 70 higher than normal for a Friday. Tomorrow we are 1 week from 25 December, when zero deaths were reported. I think we are mostly on top of the backlog now, perhaps 100, 120 tomorrow.
The other thing to go unheralded yesterday, thanks to the late data update, was that we hit the 90% first vaccine take-up for the UK population over 12 years old. For the adult population it's about 91.5%. |
Originally Posted by DaveS
(Post 33858005)
Daily data:
Cases 189,846 (122,186 last Friday) Deaths 203 (137) Patients admitted 1,915 (1,183 on the 20th) People vaccinated up to and including 30 December 2021: First dose: 51,771,384 Second dose: 47,412,181 Booster: 33,924,738 The rolling seven day daily average for cases is now up 48.7% on the previous week and the same measure for deaths is down 5.3%. The rolling 7 day daily average for deaths is 108.0 today. All nations are reporting today. |
Originally Posted by under2100
(Post 33858307)
Happy NewYear and thanks DaveS. Are we near peak case numbers since we are near testing capacity? Is it reasonable to work out a kind of adjusted-for-testing-capacity-limitation case numbers by factoring in positivity rate for the data during the next few weeks compared to current positivity?
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“You scaremongering ignorant ....ing ...., you and your retarded team made predictions that could have ....ed this country for billions of pounds, ....ed Christmas for a second time and cost thousands thier [sic] jobs only to have your most pessimistic ballshit [sic] now found to be just that. How ....s like you can sleep at night is beyond me and I hope you are ....ing held to account for what you have done and could have done if there weren’t some people in the government with a brain.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...e_iOSApp_Other One could totally paraphrase this into a Telegraph piece. |
I've finally got to today's techical briefing from the UKHSA regarding Omicron. The following paragraph makes astonishing reading, unfortunately not backed up by a public friendly graph. This is based on half a million cases of infection, and is the strongest piece of evidence I've seen on the matter. Buried away on page 9:
Originally Posted by UKHSA
Stratified Cox proportional hazard regression was used to assess that the risk of presentation to emergency care or hospital admission with Omicron was approximately half of that for Delta (Hazard Ratio 0.53, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.50 to 0.57). The risk of hospital admission alone with Omicron was approximately one-third of that for Delta (Hazard Ratio 0.33, 95% CI: 0.30 to 0.37). These analyses stratified on date of specimen and area of residence and further adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity, local area deprivation, international travel, vaccination status and whether the current infection was an identified re-infection (that is the individual had a previous PCR positive test).
The risk of being admitted to hospital for Omicron cases was lower for those who had received 2 doses of a vaccine (65% lower) compared to those who had not received any vaccination (Table 4). The risk of being admitted to hospital for Omicron cases was lower still among those who had received 3 doses of vaccine (81% lower). https://assets.publishing.service.go...ity_update.pdf |
Fascinating numbers from ONS, with 1 in 25 people in England expected to have tested positive in the week to 23rd December (and 1 in 15 in London).
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...31december2021 |
Originally Posted by corporate-wage-slave
(Post 33858760)
I've finally got to today's techical briefing from the UKHSA regarding Omicron. The following paragraph makes astonishing reading, unfortunately not backed up by a public friendly graph. This is based on half a million cases of infection, and is the strongest piece of evidence I've seen on the matter. Buried away on page 9:
Two caveats, the data remains skewed towards younger people, the impact on older people is less clear, and the key missing item is that this isn't a guide to severity yet, hospital admission covers everything from "the worried well" to those close to death. https://assets.publishing.service.go...ity_update.pdf |
Originally Posted by corporate-wage-slave
(Post 33858760)
I've finally got to today's techical briefing from the UKHSA regarding Omicron. The following paragraph makes astonishing reading, unfortunately not backed up by a public friendly graph. This is based on half a million cases of infection, and is the strongest piece of evidence I've seen on the matter. Buried away on page 9:
Two caveats, the data remains skewed towards younger people, the impact on older people is less clear, and the key missing item is that this isn't a guide to severity yet, hospital admission covers everything from "the worried well" to those close to death. https://assets.publishing.service.go...ity_update.pdf |
Originally Posted by corporate-wage-slave
(Post 33858760)
I've finally got to today's techical briefing from the UKHSA regarding Omicron. The following paragraph makes astonishing reading, unfortunately not backed up by a public friendly graph. This is based on half a million cases of infection, and is the strongest piece of evidence I've seen on the matter. Buried away on page 9:
Two caveats, the data remains skewed towards younger people, the impact on older people is less clear, and the key missing item is that this isn't a guide to severity yet, hospital admission covers everything from "the worried well" to those close to death. https://assets.publishing.service.go...ity_update.pdf https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-59840524 The UKHSA analysed more than 600,000 confirmed and suspected cases of the Omicron variant up to 29 December in England. It found that a single vaccine dose reduced the risk of needing hospital treatment by 52%. Adding the second dose increased the protection to 72%, although after 25 weeks that protection had faded to 52%. And two weeks after getting a third dose, that protection against hospitalisation was boosted to 88%. |
Originally Posted by Internaut
(Post 33858847)
Astonishing bearing in mind that for those who’ve had two doses the second dose, for many, will have been some time ago?
- has wiped out Delta - removes two thirds of hospital admissions (but half of hospital presentations) compared to Delta - risk of the above is further reduced by 81% if vaccinated or 88% looking at the other study in the report above, compared to the unvaccinated. [It's not two thirds plus 81%, since most people are vaccinated now] I oppose mandates, but goodness knows, this is straining my tolerance. |
Originally Posted by ahmetdouas
(Post 33858842)
has london peaked yet ?
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/v2/8...923/I7UrXW.jpg |
Originally Posted by corporate-wage-slave
(Post 33858883)
Yes, there is something in there we clearly don't understand, since those with one old dose don't seem to have much protection. It's presumably T cell related, combined with timing / endurance, always a nebulous area. But the simple version is you can plausibly argue that Omicron:
- has wiped out Delta https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...8678e64379.png https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...31december2021 |
Originally Posted by corporate-wage-slave
(Post 33858883)
Yes, there is something in there we clearly don't understand, since those with one old dose don't seem to have much protection. It's presumably T cell related, combined with timing / endurance, always a nebulous area. But the simple version is you can plausibly argue that Omicron:
- has wiped out Delta - removes two thirds of hospital admissions (but half of hospital presentations) compared to Delta - risk of the above is further reduced by 81% if vaccinated or 88% looking at the other study in the report above, compared to the unvaccinated. [It's not two thirds plus 81%, since most people are vaccinated now] I oppose mandates, but goodness knows, this is straining my tolerance.. |
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