If Scotland's really quick they might get a hogmanay!

Indeed, though it obviously lags the daily UKHSA figures in two respects. Firstly on the report's cut off date of 23 December and secondly because the ONS swabs people at semi-random, regardless of infection date, whereas people getting tested will normally be 2 or 3 days past their infection date.

So looking at the UKHSA data of confirmed cases, mostly PCR:

Omicron new infection samples, percentage of total
UKHSA 23-Dec 86.2%, London 93.4%
UKHSA 29-Dec 95.7%, London 96.5%
UKHSA 31-Dec 97.1%, London 97.8% (provisional)

Where we are heading at the moment, based on the figures above, the two damaging aspects of this pandemic, in an Omicron context, are people having to self isolate, particularly key workers; and the unvaccinated who need to be protected from infection, otherwise their impact on the healthcare system will impact all of us. Those who have had boosters won't give have much impact on the NHS, particularly as I suspect they would be more willing to take anti-viral medication. We are not in a position to abandon or shorten self isolation for those with Omicron due to the unknown impact of that on older people and those who are immuno-suppressed, but we are also unabe to abandon / shorten self isolation due to the known impact on the unvaccinated.

So self-isolation rules could be loosened IF the unvaccinated got their shots?

Yes, I guess that's the short version. A load of caveats - because of the lag on infection cases presenting to hospital, and because the infection base is skewed to younger people, there are still many unknowns here, notably on the elderly and immuno-suppressed. Plus this is just Omicron, other variants are possible. But I can see a scenario where we move from mandated self isolation for 7 to 10 days to guidelines to stay isolated while clearly infectious (sneezing, coughing, running nose), so a few days for most. We still need some of the testing regime so that those definitely at risk who are definitely positive get access to anti-virals, and since they cost £300 to £1,000 a treatment they can't be handed out like Smarties. A bit of me thinks we don't give out anti-virals to those unvaccinated, just as we require smokers to give up before lung cancer treatment, but unfortunately that's counter-productive.

I realise what you mean by mandates now! Whatever anyones opinion on them are, it'll turn out to be 2022's political hot potato of many.

Very unscientific sample but I am hearing from those I am in contact with on the healthcare front line - different people in multiple trusts that don't know each other - that there is a growing body of opinion from those having to deal with the consequences of COVID infected treatment that the unvaccinated should have to pay for COVID treatment.

On the basis that the NHS doesn't have a good process to charge anyone for anything in a hospital it's a bit of a tall order to execute. Even now when someone discovers the NHS is performing any treatment to a non-entitled person quite often the process for cost recovery fails more often than not.

oddly an agenda advanced by those who are vehemently opposed to any privatisation of the NHS.

they are clearly too stupid to understand where this goes if they do start charging for those who are unvaccinated. charges for smokers? those who drink too much? those who do dangerous sports? charges for the obese? all things people choose to do and all increase the possibility of you needing access to healthcare beyond what someone who doesn’t do them would do.

These are two very big caveats, we should probably consider the findings less strong based on these...

It is a Pandora's box, for there clearly is a correlation between poverty and access to food that isn't great, and there is a literal minefield in terms of naturally-occurring comorbidities and so on... but in principle I think there should be some sort of tax benefit if one lives healthily. Some private insurers have started moving into that arena.

I don't disagree, I am just reporting back on what is being said in multiple places by different people and I'm getting a similar message from multiple places.

There's a lot of muttering that there has been too much carrot and needs to be more stick to get people to vaccinate. Other countries are trying vaccine passports but I think there is evidence that there's a healthy market in forgeries and the current Westminster government really doesn't want to go down that path.

For those on the healthcare front line, they want to see where this is going and what path is going to be available to try to bring things back to some semblance of normality before too long. There's a growing body of opinion that there should be some consequences if you have not taken up your vaccine but end up in hospital needing treatment.

Yes sorry thanks plunet. I wasn’t having a go at you, and I should have made that clear. I realise you are just reporting what you heard :)

health care professionals who want to punish those who make choices they don’t agree with? Shows you how much this pandemic has changed normal people to what would have been thought as extremist views beforehand.

There is. You pay less in alcohol duty, tobacco duty, sugar tax etc. and you receive your pension for longer.

In respect of the UKHSA survey showing Omicron to reduce hospital admission, particularly for those with 2 or 3 vaccine doses, compared to Delta. Limitations on age and severity.

Correct, it's a big limitation given the age profile of COVID's impacts. The study did take age into account, and with 500,000 people in there, so there is some coverage factored into this. The study is continuing, so will be looking at severity in the next update, I guess 2 weeks off. However there is an implied severity there. Hospital presentation - so Accident and Emergency is included - is down by a half compared to Delta. Hospital admission, usually an overnight stay but largely excluding A&E, is down by two thirds.

i agree, there are plenty of benefits for a healthy life :)

but if the principle is a health service free at the point of use, then that’s what we have, and we don’t start charging for those who decide to do things we don’t necessarily agree with.