Well unfortunately not everyone is an avid FT reader, so in a way it's good that they were pre-selected for the trial centrally rather than relying on dodgy social media posts. It seems to have worked here, if they were over 50 or suffering from an immunity limitation then the records clearly pinged the right case. But if you are (e.g.) 25 years old and suffering from arthritis, then you are relying on the GP using the right code numbers on the medical records to get that ping.

Omicron is now so endemic that Scotland has decided to stop doing daily data releases, since almost all cases are Omicron, they are reverting to the previous weekly report on variants. England is scaling down data too. But for sample tests taken on 26 and 27 December 93% of them in England are Omicron, 96% in London. Lowest area is the North East but even there it's 88.9% have the S gene dropout. So Delta is all but gone now.

Thanks! For any given test, if a LFD is negative (not comparing to other days' tests), what would you say are the odds it'd be a false neg (compared to a PCR) particularly in the early days of infection?

Running a bit late! Daily data:

Cases 183,047 (109,655 last Wednesday)
Deaths 57 (140)
People vaccinated up to and including 28 December 2021:
First dose: 51,705,406
Second dose: 47,324,308
Booster: 33,091,891

The rolling seven day daily average for cases is now up 41.4% on the previous week and the same measure for deaths is down 34.1%. The rolling 7 day daily average for deaths is 72.1 today. All nations are reporting today with cases backlogs for NI in the data. Still England hit a record 138,287. The real stand out data is the figure for deaths though. A 34% fall from the previous week and the weekly total is 505 which is the lowest since 31st July.

At what stage will people say "well some of the deaths should have worked their way through the system and be recorded in the figures by now"?

In the same sense that some people are going into hospital for other reasons and then finding they have Covid, with such huge numbers doesn’t this also become the case for the death numbers, where omnicron might not be the actual cause of death yet people had it within 28 days..?

Probably, especially after reading this yesterday (didn't post as some people's blood pressure will go through the roof! :)):

Covid hospital data should be treated with caution as many patients were admitted for unrelated reasons

Deaths mainly depend on reporting via local government registrars, which have not been working until today. So there is likely to be some death reporting catch up in the following days.

We know that as of 21st December, 4,432 (i.e. 70%) of the 6,245 hospital beds in England occupied by covid positive patients were admitted primarily for covid, with the remainder either acquiring the infection in hospital or being admitted for other reasons. The ratio is published weekly and hasn't much changed since October, despite opinion pieces in the Telegraph.

Source: https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistic...ital-activity/ and link to excel file: https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistic...-20211223.xlsx

But still the numbers are very good, in that the link between cases and hospitalisation is significantly reduced - I think the consensus now is that the huge number of cases will not overload hospital admissions, and not implementing very restrictive restrictions was the correct decision in hindsight. The downside is it looks like a huge number of people (the majority) will get covid again, which obviously has some personal costs.

France at 208k today and the US was over 310k yesterday. The top 3 competition is heating up...Even Greece is a top ten country with 28k today.

Well that's a tricky one. So the scenario is that you suspect that you are positive, perhaps with a lower level infection, a PCR would probably show positive, your Lateral is actually negative, and your question is what chance the LFD would get it wrong? If you had caught the infection 3 days previously, roughly 30% chance of being incorrect. As you can see there are a number of assumptions there, change the assumptions and I change my percentage.

thanks! Change it to two days?

Let me delve into that a bit more. So yes, around 20 to 30% of hospital cases are identified by the systematic screening that goes on for almost all patients. A patient turns up for a broken hip and it turns out, usually to their surprise, that they have COVID. We need to keep them separate from other patients since in the same ward there could be someone with (e.g.) Ewing's Sarcoma, a form of bone cancer, for whom Omicron could be a killer.

But then it gets more complicated, I'll give some examples:
- people who turn up at A&E, often with mild symptoms, but they are panicking, or having panic attacks - generally these are triaged at the door and don't show up in hospital admissions
- people from ethnic minorities who either have a culture of turning up at hospital when something goes wrong, or there are language issues that simply can't be resolved over a telephone call. In the NE we don't have a large ethnic minority population but I think it's fair to say that this does tie down resources quite a bit. Sometimes people do get admitted due to language issues, lack of mendical records, and abundance of caution. Usually 1 night only.
- those with COVID and a few worrying factors, again abundance of caution, maybe a bit of oxygen for a night or two, perhaps borderline cases. Admitted, but short stays. Usually unvaccinated, but generally a short stay.
- those with multiple problems which are difficult to untangle, and even difficult to say that COVID is a problem or not. But it rarely helps. So cancer patients with diabetes with COVID. Admitted, often longer stays.
- Real covid emergencies, full on respiratory failure, ICU probably, may be in there for a week or so, and then several weeks slow recovery, muscle wastage, brain issues, physio requirements.. Long stays, some people are in for months. Almost always unvaccinated. These cases really tie down resources and it's almost always avoidable.
- Pregnant mothers, unvaccinated. These are among the toughest cases the hospital has to deal with, it can and does push hard bitten ICU staff into PTSD, it's just horrible.
- Frail patients - usually vaccinated, but nevertheless elderly and with poor immune systems. Not so many of them these days, a big change from a year ago, but unfortunately they don't have a high chance of getting through this. Usually in for a week, and they should really go to hospices or palliative care, but the patients often go downhill faster than we can organise a better outcome.

So in brief, it does get a bit complex unravelling this. We also have a percentage of staff off with COVID at the moment, which varies by hospital. I don't recognise these 30%, 40% figures in some reports, it's nearer 3 to 6% but being Christmas, some staff really have to take time off, may be with family at the other end of the country, and so if 2 key people in Radiography are both out then you're in trouble. There may be creative answers (e.g. bringing in someone who used to work in the department) but it's not great for efficient operations.

Oh, 50%. Do another test on day 3 and by day 4 you should be sure.

There are. nHS England did not report deaths in hospital since the 24th. Backlog catch up will be tomorrow.