Masks are being dropped everywhere around the world, we are bound to see some wild spikes, at least until the Northern Hemisphere starts warming up more. People in theirs 70s are catching it, many people of all ages I am hearing with fever, really bad throats, and at least moderate symptoms. Thank God at least this is the moment we have a decent supply of early therapeutics available (at least in the UK/US), as the prophylactic effects of the boosters may start waning a bit, too.

How does she know that it was she who infected all those people and not someone else? Did you know she had covid before attending the conference?

That is very possible.

Based upon my knowledge of a few trusts in the London area, all admissions are being tested for COVID.

Of course not and I know she tested beforehand. But timing and tracing did prove it. The point I am making though is that a lot of people who have been very careful over the last couple of years have had to drop their guard somewhat and are now catching it. I know a few people in that position.

Exactly this. My sister caught COVID last week and is triple jabbed, but has some other major medical issues. She had a fairly bad ride but the medication she was given has made a massive difference and she is on her way to recovery.

As to the US, I'll speculate that we are finally getting herd immunity. We have been hit so hard, repeatedly, that it's finally harder for the virus to transmit.

As an example, I serve on a PTO board of fourteen. These are healthy adults aged 30-52. Every single person has had covid. Most of our spouses and kids have had it. In my daughter's school of 1450 children, they've gone from dozens of cases a week to one last week to none this week so far. The vast majority of teachers have had it. It's just been around too much by now.

This is the difference between having kids at home and not. In our family of four, only the kid living in a college dorm has had it. The one living in a off campus flat has not.

The main reason case numbers are so low in the US, in my opinion, is no one reports home testing. We don't even know how to report it.

Daily data:

Cases 71,259 (45,656 last Thursday)
Deaths 142 (194)
Patients admitted 1,406 (1,068 the 27th)
Patients in hospital 11,751 (10,714 on the 2nd)
Patients in ventilation beds 266 (279 on the 2nd)
Vaccinated up to and including 9 March 2022:
First dose: 52,687,324
Second dose: 49,150,338
Booster: 38,437,814

The rolling seven day daily average for cases is now up 52.9% on the previous week and the same measure for deaths is up 0.8%. The rolling 7 day daily average for deaths is 103.6 today.

The US increase has always seemed to lag the UK increase in the past - omicron UK was much higher before it started taking off here. There's some early signs that there might be some increases starting though, which I'm really not looking forward to, my employer finally removed mask mandates in building, I don't doubt that they'd jump right back on them if they had any inkling of an idea that they felt they should.

Not sure about the herd immunity either. My wife's a teacher, and teaches an age group that can't be vaccinated. They've had a few cases in her classroom, but I'm not sure it's even hit half. And as far as I know, neither she nor I have had it so far. (Not ruling out being one of those asymptomatic people at some point, but I've never had symptoms that would have made me consider testing to see if I had it.) Heck, I took a cruise as omicron was ramping up, which if you believe the CDC might be one of the most dangerous activities on the planet.

The increases in cases are in those over 55, so the ones most likely to use hospitals anyway and mostly they are boosted. All admissions are tested. It's pretty much across the board, after taking age into consideration, though some particularly steep rises are being registered in North West England, less so in London so far. So my suspicion is that this is due to the reduced wearing of masks, increased socialisations by older people, waning of antibody levels from vaccinations (though not of T cells thankfully). But it is disappointing to see cases rise so quickly again. It is largely the BA.2 version. At the moment second boosters are only being offered to the over 75s and a few other vulnerable groups, and the take up isn't great at the moment. It may be better to offer to the over 50s at least on a "it's there if you want it" basis.

I'll be curious to know at some point when it will be the optimal time for a second booster for those over 50, April-May, Summer, or Sept-Oct...

I suspect we'll be seeing a dual flu/covid shot in the not too distant future with the same annual cadence.

Moderna says not until Fall 2023, the earliest...Unless others develop one faster.

If there isn't a surge going on, then I'd say it's better on balance to leave it until October time and then the most recent data can inform choices. But if there is a surge going on, and the risk to health care facilities is such that you want to reduce the impact there, then another shot of a vaccine will give a further uplift in antibodies in most people. Scotland is seeing a lot more admissions with COVID now, for example, and hence there is concern there about NHS resouces. Currently that's an exception, the rest of the UK isn't near a danger zone at the moment.