Originally Posted by lhrsfo (Post 34032565)

No idea what the source of your figures may be, but the real world has been markedly different, with figures published and presented to the public which were massively exaggerated. Take any of the following, all sourced from figures published by HMG.

https://data.spectator.co.uk/category/sage-scenarios

The facts are very clear - that SAGE were publishing figures that were out of touch with the outcome. What is not clear is why that may have been, with the most benign explanation being that people adjusted their behaviour more than expected. This is clearly behind why cases and infections were falling before the first legal lockdown could have had any effect - and the same for subsequent waves. It's also quite clear that some members of SAGE had an agenda which prioritized locking down the economy at any cost but it's not clear whether they held much sway. It's also quite clear that members of SAGE on more than one occasion knew that the figures that they were putting in the public domain were wrong. And it's also clear that nearly every prediction from SAGE was too pessimistic. Now it's quite proper that they should be looking for reasonable worst case scenarios - that's what HMG should be preparing for - but it's not reasonable for them to that far off, and consistently that far off.

Originally Posted by DaveS (Post 34032571)

Time for some daily data:

Cases 27,484 (38,409 last Monday)
Deaths 46 (15)
Patients admitted 1,112 (1,305 the 15th)
Patients in hospital 10,656 (11,267 on the 18th)
Patients in ventilation beds 271 (335 on the 18th)
Vaccinated up to and including 27 February 2022:
First dose: 52,628,660
Second dose: 49,000,222
Booster: 38,211,911

The rolling seven day daily average for cases is now down 24.3% on the previous week and the same measure for deaths is down 25.2%. The rolling 7 day daily average for deaths is 107.4 today.

No cases/deaths data is now available for the weekends. It is now lumped into Mondays figure. What I have done above to try to maintain some consistency is divide the figures for cases and deaths by 3. I keep a spread sheet which means the weekly totals remain correct. We are still seeing significant drops in cases and deaths and healthcare data is encouraging.

Originally Posted by KARFA (Post 34032659)

Schrodinger's (SAGE) modeller - simultaneously entirely accurate , whilst also pushing for a lockdown over last Christmas due to dire models of thousands of deaths per day and tens of thousands of daily admissions which never even got close to happening :)

Originally Posted by KARFA (Post 34029882)

The ranking is soft as you well know since quite a few countries below have clearly fiddled their figures - Russia and Mexico come immediately to mind but there are others.

Within Europe that is clearly less of an issue and the figures are more accurate, here are the cumulative figures for deaths per million across Europe.

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...74a9c1fe1c.png

I note there are some countries below the UK who had fewer legal measures, so you can't conclude fewer measures in the UK would have had more deaths.

And if you look at the UK now it does seem to be in the forward pack of countries finally moving beyond the pandemic.

Originally Posted by ringingup (Post 34032651)

Rate for 100,000 is now 394. corporate-wage-slave, you mentioned this is a significant figure if I remember right?

Originally Posted by paulaf (Post 34034638)

Jet2 no longer requiring face masks on flights to/from England and N Ireland, progress indeed, lets hope BA follow soon.

https://www.jet2.com/en/flights/safe...ce-mask-policy

Originally Posted by :D! (Post 34035314)

How much of the drop in cases might be down to people reducing or stopping testing?

Hospitalisations and deaths dropping is a good sign of course.

Originally Posted by PxC (Post 34035361)

A lot less people wearing face masks in BRS this morning. Less than half I’d guess. Why would you really, besides blindly following rules, when you don’t have to anywhere else?.

Originally Posted by PxC (Post 34035361)

A lot less people wearing face masks in BRS this morning. Less than half I’d guess. Why would you really, besides blindly following rules, when you don’t have to anywhere else?

Originally Posted by IAN-UK (Post 34038570)

Now you are free to pursue the course of action you prefer, it seems impolite, awkward, to scorn the motivation of others also exercising their freedom of choice.


As for that motivation, a stab in the dark, but maybe mask wearers include:

• Those at risk from the disease.
• Those prepared to make a very small sacrifice in terms of comfort in order to reassure those at risk.
• Those who want to do the right thing and follow the advice to protect themselves and others in enclosed spaces.
• Others with less altruistic motivation who simply got used to mask wearing and continue the practice as a reassuring "comfort blanket"