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The US airlines have a big advantage with our large domestic market. All the airlines are reactivating their fleets and adding domestic flights. Our Covid numbers are still quite high (although mainly concentrated in a handful of states), but the vaccine program is going well and people are optimistic about traveling again soon.
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Where is the data they based this on? Forgot to quote the Aussie thing...
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Originally Posted by Kgmm77
(Post 33161772)
I’ve no doubt discussions are taking place, and I think you’re right that perhaps the US may be one of the first to show its hand, but I don’t get the sense there will be any global coordination in the short-term given the varying trajectories countries are on, and within the EU I’d be even less certain than 1 or 2 months ago.
And I’m afraid I don’t agree with your final sentence, and more importantly, I don’t think there is general agreement across many jurisdictions that this is a top priority right here and now. |
Originally Posted by JEM_NYC
(Post 33163213)
My hope is that the US and UK will at least open a travel bubble of some sort. We are both on a similar vaccine trajectory (although our cases are still much higher, likely due to the strict UK lockdown) and I should think mid-May will be the point where we know that vaccines are winning the battle. I’m planning domestic US travel in May, but hoping for London in June!
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Herd immunity is within reach. So why won't ministers talk about it? It’s a question of when, not if, we tame Covid. But ministers still won’t be frank about their strategy
Boris Johnson was vaccinated against his own optimism by the third lockdown – and the protection seems to be long lasting. He grumbles that there’s only one real certainty about Covid: when things go wrong, Britain tends to get hit worst. That certainly was the experience of last year – but the surprise, now, is that things are going badly right. He is now facing the very real prospect that his “scientific cavalry” has not only arrived but is fairly close to winning the battle against coronavirus. The vaccines have worked, better than anyone expected. More effective and more eagerly sought-after than any modeller dared to imagine. British Covid deaths are now the lowest in Europe, having fallen faster than even in Israel. There are no more “excess deaths” – in fact, fewer people are dying, now, than normal. The data has for some time, been unremittingly positive. Several parts of the country have been virtually Covid-free for several weeks. The idea that we might achieve herd immunity on Monday – as a model from UCL suggests – is unexpected. But entirely plausible. We heard about herd immunity quite a lot at the start of the pandemic, because this is how viruses die. Infections keep rising until a certain percentage of the population is protected – either by recovery, or vaccination. The figure of 60 per cent was mentioned at first. Other estimates go as high as 85 per cent: as ever, with Covid, no one is quite sure. But whatever the threshold is, Britain looks likely to hit it soon. |
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Originally Posted by cauchy
(Post 33163094)
Things are moving quickly - the Telegraph is now reporting that AstraZeneca could be restricted to 40+ -- https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...jcvi-suggests/
Remember that the 30-somethings with pre-existing conditions that put them at high risk of a bad Covid outcome have already been jabbed, so this is really targeted at the very low risk 30-somethings without pre-existing conditions. |
I know this is a bit confusing, but the Global Travel Taskforce report is being released tomorrow, perhaps at midnight. That is actually a discussion piece for the Coronavirus forum / UK arrivals thrread, since it mainly affects arrivals into the UK rather than Lockdowns. I've put a Starter for Ten up already.
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Originally Posted by corporate-wage-slave
(Post 33163390)
I know this is a bit confusing, but the Global Travel Taskforce report is being released tomorrow, perhaps at midnight. That is actually a discussion piece for the Coronavirus forum / UK arrivals thrread, since it mainly affects arrivals into the UK rather than Lockdowns. I've put a Starter for Ten up already.
https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.fly...20e18ae441.png |
Originally Posted by Silver Fox
(Post 33163207)
Where is the data they based this on? Forgot to quote the Aussie thing...
Originally Posted by ahmetdouas
(Post 33163381)
Yeah they have time for this as the 30 somethings aren't due to be jabbed for at least another month.
I imagine they're now refining their approach, and come next month, my bet is it'll largely be Pfizer and Moderna for the 30-somethings (with J&J to follow for the 20-somethings). |
Originally Posted by cauchy
(Post 33163407)
The data presented on Wednesday simply looked at the cost-benefit of the vaccine by age range, no pre-existing conditions (or lack thereof) considered (https://assets.publishing.service.go...4-21-final.pdf). Of course, this isn't helpful, as those with pre-existing conditions have already been offered vaccination and its done now. So really they need to drill down into what the pro's and con's are for those without pre-existing conditions (i.e. those in priority groups 11 and 12). Of course, the vast majority of Covid risk is taken by those with pre-existing conditions, and once this is stripped out, the picture might well look very different.
I imagine they're now refining their approach, and come next month, my bet is it'll largely be Pfizer and Moderna for the 30-somethings (with J&J to follow for the 20-somethings). |
Originally Posted by ahmetdouas
(Post 33163427)
They should just do it USA style and allow you to choose what you want.
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Originally Posted by cauchy
(Post 33163440)
Yes, I totally agree! But I don't think it's the way the NHS sees things, patient choice isn't really what they specialise in.
Having said that, the US program is totally self-directed - it’s up to the individual to find a vaccination center and book a vaccine. Some centers are so keen for the business they offer a choice. And, in California which is now just a week away from offering the vaccine to all comers, nobody is bothering to check eligibility. |
Originally Posted by lhrsfo
(Post 33163685)
Quite right - we’re just numbers to them. That’s always been my impression and now I have discovered that everything hinges around my NHS number, the impression has been confirmed!
Having said that, the US program is totally self-directed - it’s up to the individual to find a vaccination center and book a vaccine. Some centers are so keen for the business they offer a choice. And, in California which is now just a week away from offering the vaccine to all comers, nobody is bothering to check eligibility. |
Robert Boyle clearly isn't impressed by Shapps' work. And if the former chief strategist for IAG isn't then it's pretty much guaranteed that the rest of the industry will think so too. Lundgren at EasyJet has already said so.
UK government deals another blow to the travel industryReopening international travel from the UKAirlines and other travel industry players have been anxiously waiting for the UK government to pronounce on when and how the current ban on non-essential international travel might be lifted. When the roadmap for relaxing restrictions was published on February 22, the issue of overseas travel was firmly dodged, with the can kicked down the road to April 12. That was the date set for the grandiosely named “Global Travel Taskforce” to report on how international travel could be safely restarted.On Monday, we got some strong hints from the government that when the Taskforce reported, the news wasn’t going to be what the travel industry had been hoping for. I wrote about it here. This morning, we got another announcement from the government. On the face of it, it was the long-awaited report from the Taskforce, delivered three days early. The reality was a bit different, as I will explain. I’ll start with the big questions that people want answered. When will we be able to go on holiday and where can we go?What every one wants to know is whether the travel ban will be lifted on May 17, and if so, which countries will be open for travel. The truth is that we still don’t know the answers to either question. We’ve been told that countries will be put into red/amber/green categories based on risk. But once again, the government has refused to answer any of the key questions, saying only that it will do so by “early May”:“We will set out by early May which countries will fall into which category, as well as confirming whether international travel can resume from 17 May.” Both airlines and customers are desperately seeking some guidance, around which they can plan. Today’s announcement just gave them another month of uncertainty. But that was actually not the biggest issue with what got announced today. Death by testingThe biggest shocker in this announcement was that even for low-risk “green routes”, arriving passengers will need to take both a pre-departure test and a post-arrival test. Both of these need to be PCR tests, which typically cost £120 each. Even if the destination country does not require any tests on the outbound journey, that’s £240 per passenger in test costs. That will push travel out of the reach of all but the most affluent travellers.Travellers to “amber” destinations will need three tests and to self-isolate on their return to the UK. Just the self-isolation part was enough to squash demand last summer. Adding a £360 financial hurdle on top will essentially kill it. Airlines have been pushing for the use of much cheaper and more convenient lateral flow tests (available for £33 from BA, for example). It is a massive blow to the industry that the government have insisted on the most expensive option, PCR. The UK government has done very little to support the travel industry during the crisis. Funding the tests it is requiring travellers to take would have been a non-discriminatory way to help the industry. This is a massive missed opportunity, in my opinion. What happened to vaccine passports?Another thing that was “missing in action” in this announcements was vaccine passports. Sorry, I should have said “COVID status certificates”. Everyone thought that being vaccinated would allow you to skip at least some of the testing and self-isolation requirements for travel. International travel is the least politically sensitive application of such certificates. Their absence from the framework announced today will be another source of frustration for airlines.Could all of this change?A date of June 28 has been set for the first review of these restrictions. Even if this review results in a further relaxation, that presumably wouldn’t come into effect until a week or two later. I guess that does leave open the hope that things will be relaxed in time to catch the end of the summer travel period.If that doesn’t happen, missing another summer will push many travel companies under without additional financial support from the government. There seems no sign of that. Mismatch between the rhetoric and the substanceThe final issue which will infuriate the industry is the total mismatch between the substance of what has been announced and the rhetoric used in the announcement.This is what Transport Secretary Grant Shapps said in the press release: “International travel is vital – it boosts businesses and underpins the UK economy – but more than that, it brings people together, connects families who have been kept apart, and allows us to explore new horizons. “The framework announced today will help allow us to reopen travel safely and sustainably, ensure we protect our hard-won achievements on the vaccine roll out and offer peace of mind to both passengers and industry as we begin to take trips abroad once again.” And we also had this: “The report, produced by the Global Travel Taskforce, shows how international travel could resume from 17 May at the earliest in an accessible and affordable way.” Accessible and affordable? What planet are they on? Judging by the substance of what has been announced, they should have said: “We don’t want international travel to restart until much later in the year. Probably 2022. We are prioritising getting back to normal life domestically and are taking a highly risk-averse approach to avoiding importing cases or new variants. We don’t care what damage that does to the travel industry, that is not our priority. Anyone that insists on travelling should be forced to jump through many hoops and pay a high financial price. They should be staying in the UK anyway.” It is interesting to contrast the UK and the Australian approach. Australia has been crystal clear from early on that they didn’t want international travel until 2022 and never tried to fudge the issue. Customers were clear on the rules and airlines like Qantas were able to plan and to engage with government about financial support to ensure that the industry could survive a prolonged government-imposed shutdown. It seems to me that the UK government has fallen completely between two stools. It says it wants to reopen international travel whilst all its actions say the opposite. Both frustrated travellers and an increasingly desperate travel industry deserve better. |
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