corporate-wage-slave how accurate is https://www.omnicalculator.com/healt...queue-england?

I am looking at it for my daughter and it says:

Based on your profile, you are in priority Group 12. Given an uptake of 78.5%, there are between 12,734,697 and 17,779,699 people in front of you in the queue for a first dose of COVID vaccine across England.
📅 Given a vaccination rate of 2,056,390 a week and an uptake of 78.5%, you should expect to receive your first dose of vaccine between 06/06/2021 and 10/07/2021.

You should then get your second dose by between 29/08/2021 and 02/10/2021.

Starting to fret a bit that she will get first dose in England then leave for home (California) for August and then be in Scotland in September and NHS will lose track of her. But I suspect a number of English students may get first jab in June/July at home then head to uni in the fall and it will work out?

The cynic in me, given the EU farcical handling of the vaccine rollout, says that this is a convenient excuse should they not meet their "70% vaccinated by August" (or whenever it was). Anyway, it's on the BBC so it must be true:

Oxford-AstraZeneca: EU says 'no indication' vaccine linked to clots

Just adding to this, blood clots were actually found as one of the consequences of Covid-19 (not the vaccine) in some patients late last year: https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/heal...-to-your-blood

The EMA as you say has come out and said they're not related to the AZ vaccine either.

There are articles today about how AZ is going to miss vaccination delivery targets for the EU in the second quarter (the already lower one after their previous drop). Do we know if this is likely to impact the UK (and rest of the world) too? I've not seen that. That could change things a lot, since as of next week I do believe, supplies are meant to rise massively and the goal I heard was 3-4m vaccines a week across the UK?


Glasgow and the surrounding areas have started to plateau and even go up a bit again, so with the new WHO levels for Scotland's own levels, the area may be in lockdown for even longer. :(

I do two lateral flow tests a week as part of my work and report them online. Same with my partner. Are all of these contributing to the test statistics? No wonder the positivity rate is so low if all of the staff taking it contribute to that.

I think you can regard those dates as the worst case scenario. I am guessing your daughter is under 30 with none of the long list of trigger health conditions, not homeless, not caring for someone, not in prison, not in a religious order. This would be the last group to be vaccinated, and that will be an interesting one, since they won't be holding back age groups for it, but will be trying to hoover up the slow adopters from the older age groups. Once an age group starts, the precise age won't make much difference for long. Yes they will start with those age 29 but fairly soon I'll be seeing people aged 23 and 25 mixed in with those 27. So 29 is very different from 31, but 27 is not so different to 29. Students don't have any priority as such, but commonsense says it's pretty vital they get done ASAP, so when this group opens up for vaccines, I would imagine many educational institutions will be doing all they can to ensure students get jabbed before the summer term is out.

The current commitment is that everyone in the UK will be offered a vaccine by 31 July. This is now seems very relaxed, but it didn't feel like that when the date was set. She is in the Thames Valley area if I recall, so my guess is she will be done early June, maybe late May, she could try deferrring this, but I would strongly advise against delaying by even 1 day. For the second jab, particularly if AZ, I would relax about that given her age. For Moderna and Pfizer it probably is best to stick to the 3 month timetable, but for AZ there is some evidence that a 4 month gap is better than 2 months and that would very much apply to those who were younger/healthy. She will not get a choice on vaccine, you can assume AZ is the most likely. Anyone who presents themselves for their second vaccine at 4 months will be regarded as having successfully completed the course, with no follow-up, that's for all vaccines.

We have seen how the timeline seems to compress (in a good way) fairly quickly, so some people above appear pleasantly surprised to be called in a few weeks before they expect. The critical thing in England and Wales is to have an NHS number with your correct address AND be on a NHS GP register. That effectively gives you 2 chances of being called in, but we're pretty good at avoiding 2 invitations. If she is not on a GP register, well that is something she should sort out today, it doesn't cost anything, it's just a simple form and it should take a few minutes. Links upthread.

Which brings us on to Scotland. Firstly it should be OK but she should monitor it, I bet her Scottish educational establishment will also be watching this too, they are only too aware how vaccines are critical to survival. When she arrives in Scotland, the GP system is nearly identifical, so she should register with a local practice, and this then generates a CHIN. That's a Community Health Index Number, which is a more detailed version of the NHS number, It has the date of birth in it, and the ninth digit should be an even number for females. Her English records should automatically transfer to the the Scottish system. CHIN and NHS Numbers are not the same as National Insurance Numbers, the latter has letters in it as well as numbers. The CHIN and GP registration should trigger the second vaccine alert, but of course when she registers with the new GP she should point out the previous vaccination date.

Strangely I have vaccinated 3 Californians, 2 for Los Angees and one from San Diego. I assume it's the University that attracts them to Newcastle rather than the weather!

Do we have a list of what health conditions actually trigger an earlier blue envelope through the door with a vaccination date?

Pfizer had a month start and the initial AZ supplies were slow to come on stream. Now it must be at least two thirds AZ. As of earlier this week, 11.5 million AZ has been dispensed, so right now it's almost exactly half, but won't be for much longer. The MHRA precise words about this are "Reports of blood clots received so far are not greater than the number that would have occurred naturally in the vaccinated population". What that means is that they first did a calculation of expected blood clots in the age (etc) groups and then looked at the Yellow Card system to see how many were reported, adding a bit for non reported cases. In the UK the observed cases were below the expected cases, but within the expected cases 95% CI. So a bit lower than normal. I personally don't think anyone should worry about this, while understanding that precautionary pauses are actually quite common at this stage of new drug launches. However a 2 week delay would seem OTT, I can't see how the risk level justifies the loss of benefit, unless all those not getting AZ can be accommodated with other vaccines. For second vaccines I wouldn't be concerned.

Yes.

https://assets.publishing.service.go..._12Feb2021.pdf

Table 3 gives the general list, and there is a separate link for Clinically Extremely Vulnerable (who should all have been done some time ago).

Maybe. Nine million vaccines, mostly Pfizer but some might be AstraZeneca, were exported from the EU to the UK up to March 9th according to the Guardian. The EU is getting some well-earned flak, but it's also worth noting that AZ promised 100m vaccines, then 40m, then it now looks like they won't be able to achieve even that. In Italy they've delivered 1.5m doses versus a contracted target of 5m, and the government blocked 250k doses produced in Lazio, I believe, and bound to Australia.

It's a sad state of affair to see governments handbagging each other like this but... it also feels a lot like overpromise and underdeliver from the AZ folks. Pfizer isn't good either but at least, again looking at Italy, they delivered 5.2m doses vs a target for end of March of 7m. Not great but still.

Regardless, don't rely on the letter, check on the website yourself daily is my advice.

Having had the AZ vaccine (with no regrets), I would say I am glad the must vulnerable, elderly members of the population received something a little more gentle...

You may!
Pitched up at the centre in SW London last night, with my wife who had an appointment. After some initial push back at the front door ("they probably wont see you, have had a lot of walk ins today"), inside there was no issue at all - "of course we can vaccinate you, you would be eligible in a few weeks anyway". Everyone was welcoming, friendly and totally professional. Britain and the NHS at its best. :tu:
Clearly walk ins are a common thing, so I would say give it a go if 45+. Whats the worst that can happen...

If this happens does the jab get recorded ok on your NHS records as you didn't have an appointment ? And were you able to book your 2nd jab at the same time?

My visit was recorded whilst there (always good to carry your NHS number). I was told to wait 48 hours for systems to catch up and then go online and book the second appt - or alternatively just turn up with my wife again.