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Originally Posted by HB7
(Post 33113817)
I'm not optimistic about travel in 2021. In my opinion, the current rules for anyone coming from any country having to quarantine for 10 days at home will be here for most of 2021 if not all and the red-list will grow a lot longer. The "task force" that has been formed that will deliver a report on the 12th of April will most likely amount to nothing.
The logic given is that overseas borders have to be closed (for years if it is up to some of the scientists we have) because of the threat of current variants and new variants that I'm sure will be found in due time have on vaccine effectiveness. It seems like the Oxford/AZD vaccine is much less effective against the South African variant, and possibly the Brazilian variant. If this is found to be conclusive, then every single one of those millions of people who has received the AZD vaccine is not protected (from overseas guests/tourists) until they receive their booster shot that is being developed - and that booster apparently won't be ready till Autumn. By the time the vaccine booster has been approved, checked and administered to likely half the British population, 2021 is gone. I think any foreign travel this summer is almost impossible now, and most likely not going to be possible this year. So much for "global Britain". On the basis of current vaccination rates, the US and U.K. will be all dressed up with nowhere to go for some time (albeit enjoying the huge benefit of domestic freedom from many restrictions and a much lower casualty rate). |
Originally Posted by IAN-UK
(Post 33113887)
I can't get my head around anyone attributing such malicious attitudes towards children's well-being to a scientist and clinician following a life devoted to public service.
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Originally Posted by paulaf
(Post 33113910)
It's not malicious, I'm saying he's being a bit naïve to think everyone's still obeying the rules, seeing a large park yesterday, lots of kids playing together, mums & dads all mixing in large groups, no social distancing, lots of traffic coming home so WFH decreasing etc. We've seen lots of varying scientists opinions today so they can't all be right, doesn't mean to say they can't be challenged and questioned does it just because they have lots of qualifications, some more than others?
In fact he hasn't made a prediction. He proposed to government that restrictions be lifted in a phased manner, leaving sufficient time to assess the impact of each phase before going ahead with the subsequent one. That seem an eminently sensible approach. You might argue the phase intervals are too long, or maybe too short: fine. But government is more likely to attach more weight to the advice of its CMO than to yours, or, indeed, to mine. |
Originally Posted by Kgmm77
(Post 33113898)
On the basis of current vaccination rates, the US and U.K. will be all dressed up with nowhere to go for some time.
My current destinations of interest are unlikely to welcome visitors back for some time. I wish I could work up more interest in Cleethorpes. |
Originally Posted by IAN-UK
(Post 33113819)
Who are these "everyone" ? It sounds like an echo of Trumpian rhetoric.
Originally Posted by IAN-UK
(Post 33113819)
Who wants a lockdown as long as possible? What benefit do you believe they achieve from a lockdown imposed without reason?
Meanwhile, we read horrendous newspaper articles about vaccinated octogenarians taking sleeping tablets during the day to escape the boredom of lockdown. |
Originally Posted by cauchy
(Post 33113969)
Just remember that we've had more deaths (per capita) and economic destruction than the USA.
but I clearly hit a well of bitterness:
Originally Posted by cauchy
(Post 33113969)
Oh, people who live in nice houses with spacious gardens, who now don't need to commute and get to spend time with their spouse and family. Or the people who used to work boring, monotonous jobs that they absolutely hate, but now have been furloughed and get to spend all day doing their hobbies. They'll resist going back to work until October. Then there are the people who are "working from home" but not actually working full-steam and are doing other things. The people who'd like to normalise the idea of the state imposing itself on every bit of someone's life. The people who think this will all be paid for by "taxing the rich", who want flying banned because of the "climate emergency", etc., etc., etc.
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Originally Posted by cauchy
(Post 33113553)
The same chap who presided over the highest Covid-19 death rate in a major country, worldwide?
paulaf has an (obvious) point - if the data is looking particularly good, you don't need to wait for more. And really, a refusal to move early when possible (or at least provide thorough reasoning for why its not possible) points to what everyone knows - it's nothing to do with data, they just want a lockdown as long as possible. Some people quite like the idea of lockdown, others see where this leaves us in a year's time.
Originally Posted by cauchy
(Post 33113969)
Oh, people who live in nice houses with spacious gardens, who now don't need to commute and get to spend time with their spouse and family. Or the people who used to work boring, monotonous jobs that they absolutely hate, but now have been furloughed and get to spend all day doing their hobbies. They'll resist going back to work until October. Then there are the people who are "working from home" but not actually working full-steam and are doing other things. The people who'd like to normalise the idea of the state imposing itself on every bit of someone's life. The people who think this will all be paid for by "taxing the rich", who want flying banned because of the "climate emergency", etc., etc., etc.
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Originally Posted by Kgmm77
(Post 33113898)
I think you’re missing a more obvious reason why travel will be challenging. Even if the current vaccines remain successful at limiting death and serious illness against novel variants, there isn’t sufficient evidence they don’t stop onward transmission. So travel is likely to be as limited by the destination country based on its own vaccination rate, rather than the originating country. This is one of the reasons the WHO have tried to advise against vaccine nationalism.
On the basis of current vaccination rates, the US and U.K. will be all dressed up with nowhere to go for some time (albeit enjoying the huge benefit of domestic freedom from many restrictions and a much lower casualty rate). While you appear to be happy with shutting travel for the next few years, that will only cause more economic destruction that will have bring on a multitude of mental and health issues for quite a few years. |
Because if transmission is not seriously reduced in the entire population, not just the high risk groups 1-9, then it increases the chances that a variant that can escape immunity is created (cf. the current situation in Brazil, where transmission is let rampant and the P1 variant is causing havoc). Also transmission on the non-fragile population means a lot of Long Covid, which is still not fully understand and so far appear incurable. A population with 2-5% of its member being seriously chronically sicks will have economical challenges in the long term.
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My wife’s experience of the last couple of days has made me understand that the whole Track & Trace system is just not fit for purpose.
As a brief recap, she flew to Scotland more than a week ago, working as cabin crew in Traveller. She returned on the same day and then went on to India. Since that trip has been tested 3 times, twice in the UK and once in India with an array of tests. Yesterday she was contacted by NHS Scotland that somebody on her flight tested positive to Covid a day or so after her flight. Although the passenger was in Club the whole plane was asked to self isolate, an evidently pointless exercise since 8 days have passed. Anyway, in the meantime:
This discretionary scheme is subject to the following additional criteria:
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The figures at least are looking reasonable again for the UK:
Cases 5,587 (5,534 last Saturday) Deaths 96 (121) Patients on ventilation 830 (1,087) The overall trend is still gradually downwards for cases at -7.5% compared with the previous 7 days. |
Originally Posted by HB7
(Post 33114155)
If the current vaccines are successful at limiting serious illness, hospitalisation and deaths, and you have fully vaccinated groups 1-9, what does it matter if transmission is not stopped? Are you aiming for Covid-0? Are you aiming for 100% fool-proof solutions? Do you realise that every day the economy is shut, that creates more and more problems for the future of the UK?
While you appear to be happy with shutting travel for the next few years, that will only cause more economic destruction that will have bring on a multitude of mental and health issues for quite a few years. The U.K. cannot unilaterally control the terms on where it citizens go. Other countries with lower numbers of citizens vaccinated will be slow to permit inward travel for the reasons I’ve set out. Correctly. As for the UK’s economy, that’s not really a consideration for other governments. Also, who mentioned years? Please don’t put words in my mouth and do me the courtesy of reading and commenting on what I wrote. |
Originally Posted by fransknorge
(Post 33114176)
Because if transmission is not seriously reduced in the entire population, not just the high risk groups 1-9, then it increases the chances that a variant that can escape immunity is created (cf. the current situation in Brazil, where transmission is let rampant and the P1 variant is causing havoc). Also transmission on the non-fragile population means a lot of Long Covid, which is still not fully understand and so far appear incurable. A population with 2-5% of its member being seriously chronically sicks will have economical challenges in the long term.
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Originally Posted by Silver Fox
(Post 33114301)
And 95-98% of the population locked up, crap education options, crap employment options, countries economically dying on their feet and running up debt, a myriad of mental health issues, medical issues going undiganosed/untreated is ok until someone says "phew, no more covid, no more variants" is acceptable? Not to me it isn't. I'm resigned to these dates, but that's it. No more.
agree with you and zero covid is obviously not a goal despite how many twist it to that being the goal if the news of the day does not meet their personal agenda. the goal is "how can we keep rates low enough to get a vast majority vaccinated (or pre-exposed) to prevent serious levels of death/hospitalizations in the future" which, obviously now with europe in a 3rd wave complicates that. so i hope the dates are the end, and i do think at least here in the UK the news continues to be positive that we will be able to track to the proposed dates or very closely to them. but it has been like the five stages of grief the last year and now im just resigned to my life being on hold until we can travel again. that said, i continue to be concerned with the welfare of all, and people need purpose, need regular health care, need to see friends and family. while many clearly have jumped ahead to ignore the rules now, at least it isnt on a scale large enough to result in the possibility of an upward trend in stats. thats a promising sign for the next stage to unlock. |
Originally Posted by Silver Fox
(Post 33114301)
And 95-98% of the population locked up, crap education options, crap employment options, countries economically dying on their feet and running up debt, a myriad of mental health issues, medical issues going undiganosed/untreated is ok until someone says "phew, no more covid, no more variants" is acceptable? Not to me it isn't. I'm resigned to these dates, but that's it. No more.
Me, me, me .... We are talking about keeping international travel closed up while lifting other restrictions meaning life in the UK will be significantly better than in the EU and get close to the one in NZ (where they enjoy restaurants, bars, concerts, sport matches, festivals, etc ... since several months). I am going to quote someone else: Please don’t put words in my mouth and do me the courtesy of reading and commenting on what I wrote. |
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