Putting these statements alongside the FT report yesterday re the traffic light system, I think it is clear that the idea of unrestricted or nearly unrestricted travel from May 17 is unlikely (honestly, I never thought it would be). I think there are several key questions:

(1) Will the ban on non-essential travel/declaration form be lifted/removed? I think that is where there will be the biggest pressure. There is a big gap between the travel allowed under a strict interpretation of current rules and mass package holidays to Spain and Portugal. The government can remove this ban while practically preventing 90% of foreign holidays.

(2) Will the FCO advise change for some countries? If not, even with a lifting of the above, package holidays wouldn’t be sold and many will be put off due to the invalidity of insurance (nevermind deference to the FCO).

(3) Unless (1) and (2) happen, I don’t think there will be any further changes to testing requirements, self-quarantine, and hotel quarantine. If (1) and (2) happen, then I think the big questions are what happens to (i) hotel quarantine (probably the first to go), (ii) self isolation requirements (my guess is these will remain for many months at least for some countries, and (iii) testing requirements (I’m sure these will remain for some countries for months but whether some are lifted

My crystal ball says that the blanket non-essential ban goes on May 17, with a traffic light system and FCO advise changing for some countries either in May or on June 21, but testing and self isolation requirements for at least most destinations stay for some months. I think hotel quarantine goes by May-June. I think the high end of the holiday market (where testing isn’t a cost barrier and self-isolation is tolerable due to flexible working) has a much better summer 2022 than the low end. More BA, less Ryanair/Jet2. I think business travel begins the slow road back but at a slow pace until September.

Paul Charles (you know the travel agency guy), tweeting about the traffic light system too.

Also as you say if testing isn't a cost barrier, this will help anybody wanting to go to the Malaga area on holiday, sorry business, not sure how they will cope if lots of travellers but this a good interim measure, cheap and quick antigen tests.
Coronavirus test centre opens at Malaga-Costa del Sol Airport this week . surinenglish.com

Looking at how some of the internal paperwork is going, I would suggest it would be more like the previous travel corridor arrangement, rather than a direct traffic light system, though I guess these scenarios are fairly similar. So at this early stage, the possible outcome is something like:

- a list of country to which there will be relatively few impediments to travel (e.g. a pre or post flight PCR test) - so places with low infection, high vaccination, good data. So the USA is potentially well placed, Portugal and Iceland too in a few months, though if this pandemic has taught us anything, we can't really predict too far into the future here. The timing may be a bit slow and cautious though, particularly in the May / June period.
- a list of countries which have more significant restrictions and may continue to be FCDO ABE. So various impediments will be put in the way to limit travel.
- red list places - plus the threat of adding new places to that list at very short notice.

If a country is highly vaccinated, then it kind of makes sense to require UK holiday makers to either prove vaccination status or to go through testing hoops, at least to begin with. This is an easier conversation to have when both countries concerned have effectively opened by vaccinations to everyone, again the USA and UK are in the frame here, but I am not convinced that the USA infection rate will continue to decline.

But there is a long list of problems, the biggest right now is a projected take-off of infections in those places that haven't had much of a transmission peak with the so-called Kent Variant B.1.1.7. Some places already have gone through that, others have not.

One other factor to bear in mind: the G7 meeting in Cornwall in early June. We can't predict the mood music yet, anything can happen, but clearly one scenario will look to rebuilding from the wreckage.

WRT your comment on caution in may/June - is your guess an extension of the status quo or just that there may be few or no places with a corridor/on the green list in that time frame?

And thoughts on if red list hotel quarantine stays?

As pointed out up-thread, we've had no delay in developing our own new, homegrown variants, even when case numbers are low, right here in Kent.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...fferent-places

Of course, "blame the foreigners" is far more politically persuasive than "we can[not] control the virus['s evolution]".

Indeed, we can't stop the virus evolution/mutations, and they will develop in separate places around the world. Perhaps let's not help though by continuing to allow large reservoirs of unvaccinated countries with high infection rates, or travel from those countries to where those variants don't yet exist.

:confused: Where is the evidence the Kent variant emerged when cases where low? Didn’t it emergence during the second peak after lockdown was relaxed?

Other variants of concern in Brazil and South Africa also emerged in countries where case numbers were rampant. It’s surely simple science, the more cases you have the greater chance of mutation.

Whatever happene there must be clarity. There must be clear criteria for defining whether a country is red, amber, green or blue with pink-purple polka dots. What the travel industry (and those industries, and they are many) which rely on travel need is to be able to plan. The mechanics of the pandemics are now well rehearsed, with some countries experiencing a fourth wave; we know the spreadability of the virus and how different variants behave.

There’s no excuse, but of course for the low standards of this government, to be reduced to waiting for a Thursday tweet by Shapps. I’m sure he gets lot of gratification and traffic to his otherwise ghastly Twitter feed (honestly, check it out: it’s as enticing as the bit of Acton between the Main Line and Old Oak train depot) but that’s not the way to run a country’s international connections.

Oh and someone must be found who can run UKBF better than Priti. I mean, even Theresa May could be brought back. Even her.

The first specimen of the Kent strain was detected from a specimen taken on 20 September (of course it had been circulating for some time before this). On that day, 3899 covid cases were reported in the UK.

They believe the Kent strain developed from the virus mutating inside an "immunosuppressed" person over a long period of time. So we don't know when the person in whom it developed actually fell ill. Could have been in the spring.

Figures time again:

Cases 5,312 (4,618 last Sunday)
Deaths 33 (52)
Patients on ventilation 830 (1,049)

Vaccinations yesterday 873,784 another daily record :)

Patients in hospital 6,162 (7,295)

This is excellent news, and well spotted! I’d noticed the removal of “variant concern” status but hadn’t twigged it was a double downgrade.

This is good news personally as a few days ago I thought I’d be in quarantine for 14 days when I return soon, and now I can potentially only have to do 5 days plus a negative test. Thanks for flagging this 8420PR.

I haven't found anyone who is a huge fan of the hotel process, despite the charges, it is costing the government money and some of the hotels concerned have said they want to leave the scheme next month. But that's a ministerial decision. The obvious way forward there is to keep at least the possibility of red list / hotels until everyone is offered a vaccine and all over 50s have had their second jab, which would be 3 months from now (ish), so not that long.

For May / June, that's not in the discussions yet, because it is best looked at in the final days of the Taskforce, to see where the UK is and where other countries are too. You will have seen my spreadsheet in the Coronavirus forum. The Taskforce is more looking at criteria and processes at this point. There will be doubtless plenty of leaks about this in the week after Easter Monday, if usual form is replicated (i.e. when the Spads get to see what is going on). But I would imagine / hope that many aspects of travelling will become possible from mid June.

Are you implying we won't hit 17 May target if you say a few months? So looking more like 21 June from your recent comment for holidays?
What do you mean by FCDO ABE please?
At G7 do you mean trying to rebuild our relationship with the EU?
Have a good day off, you deserve it after doing all those record breaking jabs.

If we look at the UAE, their numbers are starting to decrease again. They are one of the few countries that has had one of their main cities (Dubai) remain effectively open since July 2020, with testing only and not quarantine. If we look at the UAE's numbers, we see a total of 1433 deaths - this less than 10% of deaths when compared to the UK on a per capita basis. In fact, the UAE rank outside the top 100 for total deaths per capita and outside the top 50 for cases per capita - all with Dubai being basically open.

Why can't we adopt a system similar for travel, particularly considering the amount of our population vaccinated?

Why can't we adopt a system where every single passenger gets tested on arrival, and has to quarantine in a hotel till they get the result (or not if we are using lateral flow tests). To be more cautious, we can then make every person who arrives get re-tested on day 8 for example? Why doesn't that work - when Dubai has shown it works for people coming from all over the world?