Originally Posted by corporate-wage-slave (Post 33115873)

Looking at how some of the internal paperwork is going, I would suggest it would be more like the previous travel corridor arrangement, rather than a direct traffic light system, though I guess these scenarios are fairly similar. So at this early stage, the possible outcome is something like:

- a list of country to which there will be relatively few impediments to travel (e.g. a pre or post flight PCR test) - so places with low infection, high vaccination, good data. So the USA is potentially well placed, Portugal and Iceland too in a few months, though if this pandemic has taught us anything, we can't really predict too far into the future here. The timing may be a bit slow and cautious though, particularly in the May / June period.
- a list of countries which have more significant restrictions and may continue to be FCDO ABE. So various impediments will be put in the way to limit travel.
- red list places - plus the threat of adding new places to that list at very short notice.

If a country is highly vaccinated, then it kind of makes sense to require UK holiday makers to either prove vaccination status or to go through testing hoops, at least to begin with. This is an easier conversation to have when both countries concerned have effectively opened by vaccinations to everyone, again the USA and UK are in the frame here, but I am not convinced that the USA infection rate will continue to decline.

But there is a long list of problems, the biggest right now is a projected take-off of infections in those places that haven't had much of a transmission peak with the so-called Kent Variant B.1.1.7. Some places already have gone through that, others have not.

One other factor to bear in mind: the G7 meeting in Cornwall in early June. We can't predict the mood music yet, anything can happen, but clearly one scenario will look to rebuilding from the wreckage.

Originally Posted by KARFA (Post 33116375)

Gibraltar would be the obvious one I would have thought.

Originally Posted by paulaf (Post 33116315)

Are you implying we won't hit 17 May target if you say a few months? So looking more like 21 June from your recent comment for holidays?
What do you mean by FCDO ABE please?
At G7 do you mean trying to rebuild our relationship with the EU?

Originally Posted by paulaf (Post 33116315)

Are you implying we won't hit 17 May target if you say a few months? So looking more like 21 June from your recent comment for holidays?
What do you mean by FCDO ABE please?
At G7 do you mean trying to rebuild our relationship with the EU?
Have a good day off, you deserve it after doing all those record breaking jabs.

Originally Posted by HB7 (Post 33116360)

Regarding the list of countries where there will be relatively few impediments to travel, is there any realistic hope there will be any kicking off from the 17th of May?

Originally Posted by corporate-wage-slave (Post 33116429)

I think the restrictions will be lifted to some degree by 17 May, but if you can predict accurately the UK and overseas infections rates on 17 May you are doing a lot better than me. ABE means All But Essential travel:
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/about-fo...-travel-advice

G7 - I hope - will indeed be part of improving our relationships with the EU, though that has already starterd, there have been private contacts with the Commission and other heads of government in recent days. I've no insight into the G7 sherpa process, which is very much locked away at the moment, but if I were Boris, it does seem right for some sort of Marshall Plan, if we are able to get beyond bad news by that point.

Originally Posted by Dan1113 (Post 33116457)

The main issue and concern is the South African variant. Any travel that allows it to come into the UK is a huge issue considering AZ is useless against it.

Originally Posted by DaveS (Post 33116555)

It is not fair to yet say it is ineffective against the SA variant. All of the media reports on this can be traced back to one flawed study in SA.

Originally Posted by HB7 (Post 33116753)

The Daily Telegraph now reporting that the global taskforce report will actually be given to Bojo at the end of March and published April 12. They are also reporting that there is likely to be no EU countries on the 'green list' until vaccinations catch up with the UK - which rules out summer obviously.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...ates-catch-uk/

Originally Posted by HB7 (Post 33116753)

The Daily Telegraph now reporting that the global taskforce report will actually be given to Bojo at the end of March and published April 12. They are also reporting that there is likely to be no EU countries on the 'green list' until vaccinations catch up with the UK - which rules out summer obviously.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...ates-catch-uk/

Originally Posted by Dan1113 (Post 33116457)

The main issue and concern is the South African variant. Any travel that allows it to come into the UK is a huge issue considering AZ is useless against it.

Originally Posted by bluemoon68 (Post 33116850)

It can still prevent hospitalisation and death, even if it can’t prevent infection.