Agreed.

Everyone, perhaps, excluding Priti Patel.

I'm with that theory, though it's an anodyne concept until you define what is needed.

And here I'd hope the government heeds advice from its plalanx of scientific advisers, rather than from a ragtag of internet forums :)

Has she taken a notably radical view on this issue ?

With that I completely agree - and in truth, I'm also aware that it'll take time for scientists to come to agreement on this point.

I would tread carefully. Fraudulent use is monitored and that kind of ordering pattern is very likely to attract attention.

Today's data

Cases 2,963 (3,568 last Monday)
Deaths 4 (13)
Hospital data has not been updated
People vaccinated up to and including 18 April 2021
First dose: 32,932,448
Second dose: 10,152,039

The rolling 7 day average daily deaths is down 10% on the previous week. The last time we saw a figure for deaths of 4 or below was 7th September.

Yes these are very good figures, though Monday tends to show an artificially low figure compared to the rest of the week. Here are some more figures

- Rolling 7 day avereage mortality rate is 25 perople a day, a 26.89% reduction on a 1 week basis, 29.84% on a 2 week basis. The 2 week figure has been falling every day since 1 February, though the rate of reduction has slowed somewhat.
- 7 day infection rate of new confirmed cases is 25.88 people per 100,000, a reduction of 10% on the week
- 14 day infection rate is 54.64 per 100,000, compared to 100 on 3 April. ECDC will show a slightly lower figure for the UK in their weekly update on Thursday.
- 62.14% of the adult population have had at least one dose, 96% of those older than 50 years old have had their vaccines.
- 19.34% of the adult population have had both doses, and that will be the section of the population that are most at risk.

The official figure is that vaccines in the UK have saved 10,400 lives, but that is based on a 4 week post vaccine impact and only until the end of March. My personal view is that it has saved a lot more lives than that, plus of course prevented many, many more from the debilitating effects of a really nasty disease.

I should also note that the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care further confirmed today that booster jabs are being planned for the autumn of 2021 onwards.

So I can visit my mother in a care home.

Is there much value in younger people (say below 50) having the second jab if a booster is coming? For many, it is going to be late summer before second jabs come along. I am particularly thinking about AZ here.

I am hugely relieved to see all this going the right way and, that there are plans to keep us safe in the future.

Thanks CWS for the info. Do you know of when we might get another report regarding vaccine efficacy regarding transmission, hospitalisation and death? I know we have had a couple of these, it would be great if another set of data comes up in the next few weeks.

OK, well let's separate my views from HMG policy (insofar as I can discern it). My view is that frankly just one dose of vaccines for the under 50s is probably enough, and I would query whether a healthy 49 year old should get the booster at all. There is however a fear that influenza is going to give us a good kicking in 2021-2022, so I can see some merit in vaccinating say the 40 plus with the flu vaccine, since we extended it to the 50 plus in the non-existent flu season now drawing to a close. Hence if you are going to jab 40 plus with the flu vaccine, you may as well have them all in again 2 weeks later for the Covid booster.

HMG's current policy seems to be focused on boosters just for the Clinically Extremely Vulnerable plus those 70 years and older. And of course we don't actually have a booster just yet. My view is that if a booster is actually effective, and if the Mixing trials show that flipping vaccine types is also effective, there will be irresistable pressure to jab everyone over 50 years, plus the "at risk" groups under 50 (which something like a quarter of those 16 to 49 years old given that the NHS is the UK's biggest employer). And before you know it, some 48 year olds will be wanting to know why they can't have a jab when their spouse, 18 months older, can have the jab.

But the short version is that those 70 plus can almost assume they will be getting the flu vaccine plus a single shot Covid-19 vaccine. Those 60 plus probably can assume it too, but I suspect they will actually end up going lower still.

There is a sea of data coming our way, not just in the UK, some Europe mainland figures will be out in the next month or so. Hospitalisation reduction is officially 80% reduction, but the Secretary of State point out that real world data is 94% reduction (in combination with all the other measures); and the previous 90% death rate reduction is up against a real world reduction of 98%. Transmission reduction still staying at 50%, though that's a lot more tentative. The new product information sheet handed out for AZ (saying why thrombosis is very rare) uses slightly higher figures than the 80% quoted previously.

https://www.gov.uk/government/public...blood-clotting

Thank you. As ever, your time answering questions such as this is very much appreciated. As a healthy 55 year old, I will be happy to receive my second AZ or whatever jab. I just have a feeling that there are many more people on this planet that need it more than I do. I would be even happier if forgoing a second jab could save a life somewhere else. However, on this at least I will accept government policy whatever it may be by June 1st and get my second jab if it is still recommended.