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Originally Posted by IAN-UK
(Post 33187069)
He thought his fellow scientist had been "a little bit pessimistic". That's precious :D
As you say, it highlights the problem: scientists and mathematicians are asked "what if" questions, and do their best to come up with answers. The models involved are staggeringly complex, yielding wide confidence intervals. Politicians have to sift through the answers they get, make sense of it all AND think of the wider picture. Ours messed that up last year - just a little bit .... But it looks like they're handling things better now. With the help of the vaccine and improved testing 'n tracing we get phased relaxation, with an assessment period between phases, .Makes sense. Opening travel is going to be troublesome: maybe we'll come out of this with a very different travel industry. |
Originally Posted by cauchy
(Post 33185864)
The reality is more nuanced - it's that their often left-leaning worldview favours government control and intervention. There's frequently a dose of arrogance in thinking that ordinary people don't know what's best for them, and their Covid-models must decide it for them instead. Then there's detachment from reality - they won't lose their jobs over this or have their salaries cut - and so they just don't understand. Ruining the travel industry is certainly not what they are aiming for; rather, it's just one of many consequences of giving the scientists too much airtime.
The delicate business of squaring the science with economics and political expediency is currently is in the hands our elected politicians. Not the scientific community. |
Originally Posted by HB7
(Post 33187007)
And innocent people are losing their jobs and livelihoods as well. Millions of people are losing any prospect of work in the next 5 - 10 years. The risks go both ways. Do you think about the risks from economic devastation that is happening now and in the future - or you're comfortable with that.
It's as if some people don't understand the point of a vaccine. Why are we then getting vaccinated? This is a global health pandemic. Unprecedented. Never been seen in living memories. An infectious disease. Not a financial mistype or fraud or some terrorists attempting to overthrow governments. So you can argue people are losing their jobs etc but people are losing their lives, being hospitalised, losing their family members. Jobs will always come back. Lives do not. Vaccines are clearly a key to the way out but they are not the cure. The vaccines on offer are 60-80% effective!?! But not 100%. They are not a cure. So I think people do understand the point of vaccines and why we are getting vaccinated, if that wasn’t the case 32 million people in the U.K. wouldn’t have bothered. |
Originally Posted by VickiSoCal
(Post 33186941)
I have only the experience of two early 20's housemates to go on. They are both testing twice a week. Neither tested previously as had no symptoms. (Other than test to release when my daughter returned from US at the holidays) They are both anxious to get vaccinated as soon as possible, but in the meantime as they have started seeing friends again socially they see this as an extra assurance.
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Originally Posted by HB7
(Post 33186045)
As I have said before, we should have absolutely closed our borders last year. But the situation now is different. It is very different due to vaccines, high amounts of testing available etc. But as we sit right now, how much longer do you want to keep borders closed? The UAE has performed well - with their borders to only international arrivals open since July.
In any case, you don't think that you're judging this too early? You have said the countries "which have dealt best for the pandemic in terms of infections and deaths", but are we out of Covid-19 yet? Because, yes, as we sit here right now, the UK/US has done badly in comparison to some countries like NZ and Australia. However, the UK will have fully vaccinated its whole population by Sept/Oct, as will the US, most Mid-East countries and Europe will probable take a few months more. This will leave countries like Australia and NZ closed off from the world till well into next year or later to maintain their status of having done so well, which means they will need to continue to support a very large number of people that are unemployed - that cannot be good for the economy, which will have effects later down the track. Maybe wait till we have passed (if we ever do) Covid-19 before you give a judgement on whos done best with infections/deaths/economically. To be fair I haven't given my own judgement on which way is the best, but merely pointed out that there has clearly been more than one approach to dealing with this pandemic. Also it is far from clear that Australia is suffering economically or needing to maintain large numbers of unemployed, I note the furlough scheme has stopped in Australia whereas the one in the UK continues to the end of September. https://www.theguardian.com/business...-deloitte-says https://www.theage.com.au/national/p...16-p57jqh.html https://www.reuters.com/article/us-a...-idUSKCN2AV02X I don't want borders closed and restrictions in place any more than necessary - I quite like travel in case it isn't obvious :) |
Originally Posted by itisme
(Post 33187118)
I'm ordering a package every day and sending them abroad. In other countries it's 7.50-30euro+ per 1 test so getting 7 self-tests is nice. Only cost about 5 quid to send abroad and they can use it there aswell. Glad the NHS is doing this.
Reminds me of when people would come to the UK from abroad to get free healthcare funded by the UK taxpayer before the NHS finally started getting stricter about it. I think the Govt need to be careful with the amount of test kits they send out to households, one test kit a day is too much, they need to have some sorts of checks and balances, it can't be a free for all with no accountability whatsoever. |
I report my negative tests to help to keep my local area at a low positivity rate, which up here matters a lot in removing lockdown measures... So it makes me feel like I am doing my wee part in helping society open up. :D
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Originally Posted by itisme
(Post 33187118)
I'm ordering a package every day and sending them abroad. In other countries it's 7.50-30euro+ per 1 test so getting 7 self-tests is nice. Only cost about 5 quid to send abroad and they can use it there aswell. Glad the NHS is doing this.
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Question to try and soften the tones before we are at each other’s throats: do you know what in the NHS LFD kit is recyclable besides the boxes?
We’ve been using them quite a lot at home and the amount of plastic packaging is quite surprising. |
Originally Posted by 13901
(Post 33188007)
Question to try and soften the tones before we are at each other’s throats: do you know what in the NHS LFD kit is recyclable besides the boxes?
We’ve been using them quite a lot at home and the amount of plastic packaging is quite surprising. |
Originally Posted by realgaga
(Post 33188013)
Pretty sure the leaflet (staples removed), QC certificate (the really small one), and the cardboard bit that holds everything in the box and doubles as the extraction tube holder.
I'm seeing quite a few boxes in my building's mail room. Good to see these being used: I've got my first day at work on the 26th for my new job & I'll surely test the evening before just to be on the safe side. Passing Covid to my bosses might not be very helpful in getting through probation! |
Originally Posted by rockflyertalk
(Post 33187166)
Vaccines are clearly a key to the way out but they are not the cure. The vaccines on offer are 60-80% effective!?! But not 100%.
The purpose of lockdowns, massive economic cost etc was to protect the NHS from being overwhelmed. Now the chances of that happening again are very, very low, and the shackles simply have to come off. |
Originally Posted by KARFA
(Post 33187219)
With respect I think this was the point I was making, it is a very difficult balance to weigh infections, deaths, and the economy together. Scientific advisors should only advise based on the first two of those three. Politicians will get advice on economic impacts from others, and ultimately have to decide on the course to be taken.
To be fair I haven't given my own judgement on which way is the best, but merely pointed out that there has clearly been more than one approach to dealing with this pandemic. Also it is far from clear that Australia is suffering economically or needing to maintain large numbers of unemployed, I note the furlough scheme has stopped in Australia whereas the one in the UK continues to the end of September. https://www.theguardian.com/business...-deloitte-says https://www.theage.com.au/national/p...16-p57jqh.html https://www.reuters.com/article/us-a...-idUSKCN2AV02X I don't want borders closed and restrictions in place any more than necessary - I quite like travel in case it isn't obvious :) Just with regards to furlough or support payments, I was only referring to aviation, where there is a package to that sector specifically, which includes support for people working in jobs associated with International travel. https://www.internationalairportrevi...an-government/ The Australian economy is doing well now, but there will be tax hikes soon and undoubtedly in the future: https://www.news.com.au/finance/mone...f76d34e548718c Also, Australia relies heavily on exporting iron ore, coal and services such as international students studying at Australian universities. There are many factions in the current ruling Liberal Party who think climate change is not real, and this will hurt the economy with how the rest of the world is moving. Anyway, this is too way off topic, I think my main point is that fat lady hasn't sang yet, and there is a lot to happen before we reach that point, which is likely to be a few years away. |
Originally Posted by rockflyertalk
(Post 33187166)
But I fear your argument comes as if this is a bad financial crash or 9/11 type scenario that we need to move on from as quick as possible. I’m sure you appreciate it’s more complicated than that.
This is a global health pandemic. Unprecedented. Never been seen in living memories. An infectious disease. Not a financial mistype or fraud or some terrorists attempting to overthrow governments. So you can argue people are losing their jobs etc but people are losing their lives, being hospitalised, losing their family members. Jobs will always come back. Lives do not. Vaccines are clearly a key to the way out but they are not the cure. The vaccines on offer are 60-80% effective!?! But not 100%. They are not a cure. So I think people do understand the point of vaccines and why we are getting vaccinated, if that wasn’t the case 32 million people in the U.K. wouldn’t have bothered. And your point on infectious disease - we have infectious disease in the form of flu, that we still have 9k deaths a year. Do you want us to be at a point where that death toll is 0? Because that is impossible. Vaccines have shown to reduce hospitalisation and deaths by almost 100% - so as far as a cure, this is pretty close. And once again, I'm not saying get rid of all restrictions, but many need to be eased. Masks are extremely effective in preventing infection, and I think mask rules will remain and should remain for a while yet. As should very frequent testing - I think the fact that everyone in the UK can get free tests weekly is great - although for those that test positive, we need financial support for them. Test and trace is working much better now, every single traveller is tested when they arrive into the UK. Are you honestly suggesting the above restrictions are not sufficient for the immediate future? Because if you are, then you obviously want Covid-0, which is nigh on impossible. |
Originally Posted by HB7
(Post 33188138)
Never did I say we need to "move on", but I definitely believe we should be rectifying things as fast as possible and restrictions should not last one second beyond what is needed - do you disagree?
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