Well over there lockdown is pretty much over forever it seems!

​​​​​​https://www.ft.com/content/733a49ca-...a-14d935813041

wow! good news, finally!))

Every single newspaper in the UK has the front page of vaccine shortages, so let's see how this plays up.
I guess we can take early lockdown lifting out of the equation then!

I live in a suburb of Houston and there is no difference in mask wearing since the governor's proclamation, at least in my area. Mask wearing is almost 100% in all public places indoors. Cases numbers have dropped dramatically since the holidays. Fingers crossed that it continues.

Is there a way of bringing forward a 2nd vaccination date, the NHS site only offers the opportunity to cancel first, which in the current circumstances doesn't seem wise?

Is it possible it is not as bad as it seems, maybe moderna will replace the missing ones or az in the UK will ramp up? Or is the fact they're not taking appointments really showing that this is very bad?

Do we think unlocking timelines might slip as a result? Especially in cautious Scotland.

I don't think it's serious. Looking at this, there are the public timescales for both Lockdown (4 criteria) and vaccine rollout (April and July dates). Both look good at the moment, if not very good. Then there has been the briefing stuff, and it seems to me that ministers and their SPADs probably saw AZ UK and Pfizer schedule, added AZ India and hinted that end of March, early April would be a "bumper period". I don't think anyone has taken Moderna for granted since there is no established supply chain yet, so they were always out of this. AZ India seems to have hit the sort of problems that have bedevilled this huge first-time production problems that all the suppliers have had at some point, so it's not as bumper and they stopped the mission creep into the 40 year olds as a resul. But still, we're going to see a decent pace without it, and if Moderna comes on stream that will help, but usually the first set of consignments are quite modest in number.

The timing is justt very poor, in terms of overall optics, thanks to the President of the European Commission. It turns out what actually irked her was the fact that the previous UK - AZ agreement had allocated UK factories to the UK contract and effectively inhibits exports from the UK to EU (to cover AZ Europe factories' issues) until the UK has no critical need for the UK production. What she apparently wants is for that particular provision to be set aside, in order not to use the EU's rarely used powers in strategic interest, but there isn't an intention to switch off the taps completely. That's a political procurement point, which clearly rankles conceptually, but isn't the EU's biggest problem in my view, it's more about using the AZ supply they have already, and rebuiilding confidence in AZ, which has taken a real hammering however you look at it. As I say really poor timing and the author of that actually does know better.

You presumably have an AZ jab. If so I would leave it for two reasons: Firstly there may be a knee jerk reaction on the schedules thanks to yesterday's letter (though that was entirely about first jabs incidentally) and secondly for AZ there is a lot of evidence that says "later the better" in terms of overall effectiveness. Pfizer does not have this evidence, in fact almost the opposite, so that's different, but in immune theory terms a delay ought to be better to spread the T cell timeline. One of the reasons why vaccine theory has tended to the earlier slots is purely human behaviour - in more boring circumstances if you leave 2nd dose vaccines too long, people just forget about them and don't turn up for the second dose - but I really don't think that is going to be a problem here. If your second jab is scheduled for close to 11 weeks AND you are past 5 weeks right now, then I guess there is an element of having nothing to lose if you cancel and rebook, but I wouldn't recommend it personally. You will get some slightly badly worded screens which suggests you didn't turn up for your appointment, but ignore those.

Is there any chance of any of the other sources, particularly UK-based AZ, ramping up to make up the shortfall? Hopefully Moderna will surprise and come sooner... BBC today said "late spring" which doesn't sound helpful in this context.

The BBC isn't helpful in any context.

So in terms of projections - it would seem that 40-49 is likely now first half of May and 30-39 second half of May? Anyone disagree with the projections there? And maybe that slides forward a bit if Moderna comes fully online (and back a bit if there’s another batch issue or what not).

We had written off going to the US to get the vaccine (we are US citizens and have residency documents in New York, nevermind that not all states require residency - e.g., Texas who will take anyone who is eligible in a particular county for an appointment based on age/health/occupation even if they live on the moon) but are now reconsidering it.

My wife and I are healthy and are in our late 30s. I don’t think we would travel to get the vaccine a couple weeks earlier. But if you combine the potential to get it in the US in at least later half of April (Several states plan to move to all adults even prior to Biden’s May 1 deadline) and the fact that second doses come much faster - it may result in full vaccination by late May rather than August. That has us at least thinking about reevaluating. We had definitely been operating under the assumption we would have our first dose in the UK in April which now seems nearly impossible.

Moving back closer to the thread topic - I am optimistic that this issue only is a psychological hits to people’s increasing expectations and not the overall timeline which informed lockdown easing.

But just don't call it a ban!

On a slightly less polemic note, with regards to India. My OH operated a flight from Delhi yesterday. The outbound was with passengers, inbound with only cargo. They had not to pick up 30 tons of cargo because some utter I-better-not-say-what over at LHR had damaged the cargo doors hinges by, as usual, being too damn lazy to use the engineering steps to close the hold and not the elevator. Only place in the world where it happens.

OH doesn't know what the cargo was but a large chunk of it was constant climate materials and, hearing from the captain who was being given a massive earful from London over this, freight forwarders in India are extremely backed up and releasing cargo from local authorities is even more painful than usual (and if you ever tried to get stuff in/our of India you know what I mean). Could be part of the explanation.

The media doesn't help. There has been very good news about existing vaccine efficiency against VOCs, you hear naf all from the media. As soon as there is bad news it is all over the headlines.

It is difficult news to hear, especially with news just a few days ago (speculating) about the possibility of the programme accelerating with all adults done months head of schedule. It feels like a set-back, but if it can all be done by the dates stated originally then I guess we are still on track!

The finger is now being pointed at India

BBC: India shortfall behind UK's supply delay

I am now feeling exceptionally releived (and just a little smug) that I managed to talk my way into a dose of AZ last week, well in advance of my age group. Second dose already scheduled for late May. Not a cat in hells chance of that tactic working now based on that leaked letter.