Wow. Good luck with that strategy. Shaming someone should never be a strategy, unless they've done something horrible or broken the law. This attitude is what is wrong with society today.

You are wrong:
- It is not mission accomplished as KARFA explained properly. Additionally vaccinating only a subset of the population means transmission will continue to occur and mutations will continue, until one day due do basic Darwinism one variant will escape immunity. Mission accomplished is 90-95% of the population vaccinated.
- Nobody but conspirationist and the far-right talk seriously about the vaccine being forced.

I disagree.

If someone is refusing to get vaccinated for no good reason, and persuasion and education fail to do the trick, then let's try to shame them into doing what is right for society. I would do so without hesitation, embarrassment or regret. "Us, us, us" instead of "me, me, me", as c-w-s succinctly put it earlier in the thread.

Thankfully, vaccine acceptance is quite high in the UK compared to other countries, and the issue hasn't been politicised here to the extent that it has in the US, and the number of people likely to refuse is manageable.

Leaving aside the politics and everything, is 90-95% really accurate? So far I'd heard lower numbers for herd immunity, low 80s or high 70%.

We've been told he is getting his jab this week, but we don't know when. I'm slightly terrified he will combine this with yet another visit to the Red Wall and I'll find the blond mop in front ot me. More realistically we will be on 50% of the adult population around Thursday, give or take, and if I was managing his diary then I know what day I would be going for. It will almost certainly be AZ if is vaccinated this week. Sir Kier (who is younger) has had his.

I've done the numbers, and I reckon we need about 90% and three weeks, this is due to the fact that there isn't a 100% protection on all tha various goodies (immunity, death, serious illness, transmission) that the vaccine gives, plus viruses always succeed in exploiting our vulnerabilities, such as the homeless, people in prison, those in the country illegally, forgotten and vulnerable communitiies. And in a densely populated country with poor housing in many places. Herd immunity is very poorly understood and actually relates to sheep in a field, not humans in society.

Moreover if we do 92%, we cut about a month off several hundred avoidable deaths compared to 90% As you may have heard me say, speed is totally, completely, utterly of the essence.

Incidentally we have another problem here: children. Clearly this isn't today's priority, but my prediction is that this will be a worry in the Autumn of 2021. Luckily there are trials going on at the moment.

I agree on the voluntary bit, but the first part is in our manual for vaccinators, in the section marked "conspiracy theories". Perhaps unfairly placed but here are some o the text screeds we have on this, used to give short answers to those who spend too long watching Russia Today::

MYTH: “Only old people or people with comorbidities die or get severely ill from COVID-19.”
It is true that old people and people with comorbidities are affected the most, but young and healthy people can also die or suffer severe consequences. Indeed, there is some evidence that COVID-19 might leave even asymptomatic patients with consequences such as lung scars, and it is not yet known how this might affect their health in the long term. Low risk does not equate to certainty of no risk
FACT: A person cannot fully control or eliminate the risks from COVID-19


MYTH: “I am always careful and I respect the recommendations, therefore I am not at risk.”
The behaviour of others is also an important contributor to your risk from COVID-19. For example, if you are in a closed space and nobody around you wears a mask properly, your risk of getting infected is higher than when everybody wear a mask properly.
FACT: The risks from COVID-19 depend on how everyone is behaving over time, not just one individual.

So on that note - I feel like the reputable press is saying different things - massive increase in supply coming with an expected dip in April. Is this really to say we are going to double vaccines through the back half of March only to have it cut by 50% in April? Where does this leave the rest of the 30+ who I had believed would be offered a vaccine by end of April (even if uptake becomes even more challenging).

Predicting vaccine delivery 4 weeks off is only slightly easier than predicting flight operations 4 weeks off. Moreover those who know the details have had their attention drawn to the Official Secrets Act sections 7 and 8. However with that cheerful prospect in mind, the way to look at it is that vaccine delivery so far is running at 2.5 million a week on average since mid January.. This week should be a lot more than that, next week too, the following week also quite high. Thereafter it gets a bit diffucult to predict, but still not less than the 2.5m figure, and we can't rely on Moderna until the boxes arrive in Somewhere-in-England. Suffice to say I think 30+ won't have too long to go, particularly if they are switched on, because we always go for the easy wins. Those in their 30s will be trickier than those in their 60s, for various reasons (e.g. pregnancy) so those who are keen should rightly get their jabs sooner.

I'm interested in knowing more, can you share (here or on another thread if this is OT) your calculations?

I must admit, I know very little about epidemics but I do remember that the herd immunity for Polio was around 80% (my Italian granddad caught it after he returned from WW2 in Russia... typical luck!). Is 92% because Covid has a higher propensity to spread?

The thing is that to eliminate a disease or really redude its spread you need a vaccination rate higher than theoretical herd immunity due to the difference between models: herd immunity is coming in early 20th century from livestocks, the model applies to herd. For human in a society there are some deviations to the model and we need a higher rate of vaccinations.
Polio is a perfect example, the herd immunity threshold is 80% as you correctly write, it took an immunization rate of 97% to eliminate it.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/6262149/

For the history of herd immunity, see this: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...924-3/fulltext

It is on a modelling machine known as Genii, so it's not really portable. But to summarise a really complex area, the polio example is actually a good reference. Polio two doses is about 90% effective (99% with 3 doses, which you would do if there was a big outbreak), whereas the Covid vaccines are bit less effective than that (60% to 94% with many variables), and that has a logarithmic impact (kind of).

"Herd immunity" - which as I say is best left to sheep and cattle - is not an on-off concept, the more you vaccinate, the sooner you vaccinate, the bigger the impact. In a sense even today's 46.1% adult vaccination level gives some herd immunity, just too low to really have much impact, particularly since today's 3 week figure is only 33.8%. Even 99% vaccine cover could theoretically lead to some deaths, just (hopefully) very few and well spread out. Hence when we get to 80%, and have left it 3 weeks, we get some good impacts, I think that R greater than 1 become statistically very difficult for example. But to be sure to get the death toll under (say) 10 per day - and to give a margin for things like Variants - you need to get 90% ish. I seem to recall the DHSC were hoping to get 80% to 85% take-up, and are delighted it is so much higher, at least at this point.

The UK has usually done well with vaccine take-up, but there is an unknown about people aged 25 to 50 who simply don't get vaccines on a regular basis and where childhood memories are fading. But however you want to look at it, we need every citizen to do their part, show responsibility,, take the vaccine and take it as soon as they can.

I joined Club AZ earlier this morning. All quite painless (so far). The queue to get into the vaccination centre ran the length of Folkestone High Street three times though. I suspect the busiest that has been for 20 years. It was busy inside too and looking a bit like immigration at LHR. I have been told it is quieter in the afternoons. So if you have an adverse reaction to queues as I do, best book after lunch.

Yes, that's been my experience, a busy morning, very busy lunch (we only get 20 minutes off), then trailing off mid to late afternoon.

Congratulations on your vaccination,

Well done, fingers crossed for you, still 2 very sore arms in this house!