The second jab situation is 90% accounted for by the anticipated supply, and that's cautious enough in my view. AZ supply in particular is getting to be less of a problem. The new brands indeed may end up with both the youngsters and those slow to get their vaccines earlier. Though I can't think of a medical reason why someone would never get a vaccine, the one possibility perhaps relates to mental health, there is a minority who need to delay their vaccines - recovering from surgery, recovering from a severe health condition, recently Covid positive, recent other vaccine, pregnancy, breast feeding, so they too may be getting J&J or Novavax. Pregnancy and breast feeding are balance of risk issues, so not a firm barrier, the others can be too.

I don't see a signficant issue, but as you imply there may be a short period where some younger people will get their jabs a bit early. All centres I am familiar with have currently either a Pfizer day or an AZ day, we try not to mix on the same day, though I have had it happen once. So you could get Monday: J&J, Tuesday: AZ, Wednesday AZ, Thursday: Moderna. So briefly there would be the situation where a youngster gets 2 doses in say 8 weeks and an older person get 2 doses in 10 weeks.

In immune terms jab1 is the most important, the rest is primarily logistical. The idea of people not being "fully vaccinated" until their second jab is based on public policy (to give it my best political spin) and isn't based on science. So if we have a choice, we vaccinate the youngsters sooner with the newer vaccines rather than keep them waiting.

With respect to the issue of blood clots, surely the UK should now have sufficient data to determine if the risk is real?

Will we actually get Moderna etc though, considering the US is not allowing any exports?

They are increasingly having that approach. They have introduced powers to stop exports and using them - you would have a different point of view I am sure if you were in Australia and wondering why Italy had stopped your vaccine shipment. As I noted, we should be grateful they have not invoked that against exports to the UK yet.

The problem is that it does further increase an already sceptical population in EU countries for the AZ vaccine due to demonstrably false information pushed by press and more worryingly political leaders over the last few months. In isolation this latest action wouldn't normally be an issue. Whilst I am sure those bodies have taken their decision independent of politicians, there is a cumulative effect which they are adding to.

There is no US export ban though.

The UK does have that data, and has shared it.

This is where data science hits medical science. I'm in the first camp, so for me stopping vaccines for 6 events in a million, when 7 events are expected in normal distribution, and there is a lethal pandemic going on, is bonkers. But it is the precautionary principle. Unfortunately it will probably lead to a small number of patient cancellations in the UK tomorrow.

100%

This made my blood boil, there was a comment/question in DM today, why can't we ease lockdown earlier as cases, deaths, hospitalisations etc are all lowering, the answer was that although the Government accepts there may be a temporary rise in cases it may lead to an increase in hospitalisations, citing one reason as anti-vaxxers. So because of these people we can't ease lockdown sooner potentially! As a society we have done the best we can by producing vaccines for all yet we could be held to ransom by this minority? Surely there will be data soon on people going into hospital to ask them if they have refused the jab?

It already has, one of my friends was in the underlying conditions cohort due to a history of blood clots and slated for Friday, and went in the hope that it would be Pfizer but declined the AZ vaccine.

​​​​​We had the debate later, thromboembolic incidents have a yearly incidence rate of ~100 per 100,000 in the US (only figure I could find quickly), so statistically it was bound to happen anyway. But statistics are only reassuring if you're not part of them...

ETA: I think a sensible approach might be to stop giving AZ to people with a history of coagulation problems until the issue could be investigated. There's probably enough Pfizer to go for that particular population. But fully stopping the roll-out is absolutely bonkers as you point out.

In the interests of balance, here is Ireland's National Immunisation Advisory Committee's statement on the issue, so this is how medical science comes up with the other perspective They actually used the precautionary principle wording there:

https://www.rcpi.ie/news/releases/na...e-astrazeneca/

The reference to HPRA means that they haven't noticed problems in Ireland, but with only 117,000 doses they couldn't reach a statistic trigger. 81% of Ireland's doses so far are not AZ so it matters less for them in a sense, there again their death rate is even higher than the UK's.

That's good, i thought there effectively was. When are we due novovax, Moderna, and J&J?

It's not that long since you were saying that you might not have the jab...:)

That was just a rant.

Moderna is due soon, I think within the next 4 weeks. J&J not until the second half of the year. Novavax I am not sure, but it is still going through the approval process and I imagine May/June at the earliest.

Wow Ireland stopped AZ use. I guess they can jump the border to get vaccinated in Northern Ireland ?