Bad news indeed, but maybe it will smooth out if we have 2 bumper weeks back to an average of 2-3m/week. Thought we were due the Moderna vaccine any day?

[MENTION=262802]corporate-wage-slave[/MENTION] whats your take on this vaccine shortage?

Matt Hancock did the briefing today and was questioned on this, fairly self-evidently. His response, on which it’s best if I offer little comment, is that the letter leaked to the BBC was a standard one sent as a result of the supply chain being lumpy. He claimed the projected shortage wouldn’t affect any of the lockdown dates provided the numbers continued to go in the right direction - which, of course, would be an outer if they didn’t as a result of the vaccination rate slowing to something below the plan ...

I would conclude from c-w-s’s comment about the UK supply chain being based on JIT with lower safety stock that any lumpiness puts that supply chain in danger, and therefore the answers being given are downplaying the position.

Is it a true shortage or are they just saying all the Pfizer doses now have to be reserved for 2nd doses as we've given 12.8m first doses of that, so then we're 100% reliant on AZ for firsts.

Well Ursula von der Leyen did threaten to disrupt supplies today. I don't think she mentioned the UK, however, it is possible that she was commenting on something she has already done, as the EU continues its absolutely shambolic vaccine roll-out.

It just seems like tensions between the UK and the EU continue to increase, whether it is related to Brexit/vaccines etc. I hope we get some more clarity on this in the next few days.

This probably means no summer travel to the EU for Britons. Obviously we will see what is said on the 12th of April, but things seem to be deteriorating day by day, particularly as Europe experiences a third wave.

sorry for the dumb question but why is the UK relying on EU to supply vaccine to you? Or am I reading this wrong?

The UK isn’t relying on the EU. The UK purchased vaccines from private companies some of which are manufacturing that vaccine in the EU. The EU purchased vaccine from private companies and some of that is being manufactured in the UK. At the end of the day these are privately negotiated commercial contracts. Blocking export is more like Venezuelan style nationalization.

Well something's come unstuck if this is to be believed. I don't have a high opinion of VDL but I just cannot imagine she would do anything to disrupt the vaccine supply. If she does it's one heck of a statement.

Vaccine supply could hit record level from 15 March as campaign ramps up

It was one of those occasions where I saw the press version before the internal distribution. It was unusual in that it used the word "significant reduction" whereas previous letters on this distribution have been more nuanced (e.g. "somewhat reduced"). This is for w/c 29 March which is a week beyond our planning window, and in the past when we have got to the order day (Wednesday) we have found we have got more or less than expected. This week and next week we are up a lot, so I've just done my shifts for next week and I'm working more hours than since January in vaccinations, and the weekend shifts have still be done. Less Flyertalk for me, haha. Anyway going through the letter it was 5% messaged at reductions and 95% messaged at getting Cohorts 1 to 9 all done even if we have to repeatedly call them up or visit them in person. The only bit which was underlined was "don't give them to the 40 year olds yet".

I don't think it's dramatic stuff, it looks like an AZ batch has gone, or may go, out of spec, which isn't unusual. But it kind of explains why the public targets (15 April for 50 plus, end of July for everyone, makes sense in terms of expectation management. Obviously I'm very keen to see maximum speed here, but I'm not to disheartened by this. I was cheered up by the 7 day rolling death rate going down from 128 yesterday to 121 today. and ICU cases falling below the 1,000 level to 968 patients.

How many doses would have been "lost" in this AZ batch, I presume you mean didn't pass the batch checks? But good to hear you are not too disheartened and as you say a focus on the over 50's mostly.

Hundreds of thousands of doses. It's a bit like making a huge vat of liquid sourdough bread, you have a starter (from a previous batch) and grow the vaccine in a big tank over time, then it gets checked by AZ, then by PHE. They can sometimes rectify it if it's slighly out tolerance, but I'm speculating whether this is the cause.

something just seems off.

it would have made more sense if they said that they expect significant delays next month and will pause first doses for under 50s, but all 50+ will be able to get a jab before easter if they want to.

you dont go about the good news of 50+ at the start of the day then let something like this leak out, rather than raise in your presser.

If it's any consolation to you all, Switzerland has vaccinated just over 600,000 (400,000 with both shots) ..... since they started in January. They're still on "over 75 years old" and I'm now having to irritatingly ignore the NHS asking me to register for my vaccine as I'm over 50.