Full approval today on 2nd renewal. 120 days from application.

I don't belive that's the case as my spouse and I had different experiences in renewing and as far as I can remember we visited the same countries.

I applied for renewal 7/29/22. The very next day on 7/30 I received conditional approval with interview required. I decided rather than to make a special trip for the interview, I would do it on arrival from an international destination but that didn't end up happening until 12/4/22 which was fine as it's well within the time limit. (It was a place we'd visited several times already so nothing new for either of us.) 12/6/22 received full approval.

Spouse applied for renewal May 2023 with the same list of countries as me on the application, full approval received last month April 2024 with no interview, but that took almost a year.

I have not visited any dodgy countries, ever. My husband has, for work. Yet and still he gets his renewed in 3 days and mine takes a year. Add to that that we haven't even been out of the country at all since our last renewal in 2020 due to the pandemic. Yet and still his got renewed in 3 days and I'm more than 6. months waiting already.

ok, i did say it was relatively random :)

the point about dodgy countries may put it in the "to review" pile, but it clearly isn't the only factor.

Second renewal
 

Applied 1/18/2024
Full approval 5/15/2024
Card received 5/22/2024

Second renewal for me
Applied: 5/22/24 (on a 5/14/25 original expiration date)
Full Approval - No re-interview: 5/24/24

Part of me wonders if the speed and lack of re-interview this time has anything to do with the less exotic list of countries this time around (e.g. Brazil being my most exotic for this application vs. Mongolia on the first renewal) or the fact that I've recently done and passed a SF85P "Public Trust" background check (Of the 40+ pages that made up that application 19 were my international travel over the past 7 years) -- more likely I was just lucky.

In any event based on the backlogs, etc. I was very happy to only have a 2-day wait :)

They'll never release the criteria or scope of any renewal review, but randomness is also part of the process.

Assuming that's supposed to be 24.

My daughter's second renewal.

Applied 5/22/24
Approved 5/24/24 No interview needed

Update:

After 18 months, 19 days (and a few hours)... I received my renewal approval by email while traveling last week.
Blessed be the travel gods... 566 days in total.

As they say, YMMV!

Spouse: 2 days - no interview
Adult kid: 1 week - no interview
Me: 7 months and counting

All on our 3rd renewal, same data points as in 2020/last renewal. Last time it took me 12 months. 1st renewal I had to do interview but it only took a month for that notice and I got new card a week after interview. We live at the same address. No travel to "sketchy" places ever. I just got a new passport because I need it for upcoming international travel. Applied for renewal well before I got new passport. Wondering if I should email or call in a heads up about new passport number?

I obtained a new one from a consulate when I was traveling and provided the new number to the officer who conducted my interview on arrival. Of course you’re not at the stage yet…

Applied: Monday, June 3rd
Full Approval: Tuesday, June 4th

This is my 3rd renewal.

Have you needed an interview for any of your renewals?

No. Fortunately, my looks haven't changed materially in the last 15 years, so I've had no problems with the facial recognition.