Thanks, that was the info I was looking for. The reason I want to bid for both directions now is that the lowest possible bid just dropped to 240€ (from 680€ or so), and since the price fluctuates from what I read here I want to kock in my maximum value for the additional comfort of business...

That was my intention - bid now for both directions, then when the outbound-bid confirms I would cancel the inbound, and if the outbound does not clear, I check if I might go a bit higher and see what the return brings...

Thanks!
Greetings - Dirk

TYO (HND) -> CPH

Upgrade: plus(A) to Business
Bid: minimum 240EUR. my bid 250EUR

Successful : yes, notified 24 hrs before departure.

When I saw it last month it was 650 EUR, but when I checked 3 days before departure it had dropped to 240 EUR, so I bid 250 EUR.

for successful bidders, do you know how open business class was before your upgrade cleared?

Upgrade accepted CPH->JFK
 

My first time to bid for an upgrade from GO to PLUS.

Minimum bid was DKK 1010,- and I bid DKK 1020,-.

The day before the minimum bid was raised to DKK 1410,-. I stayed on my first bid.

6 hours before departure my bid was accepted.

I did check through expertflyer, and the whole plane looked fairly booked - maybe 4 seats left in PLUS - so expectations were low.

Considering the upgrade gives access to fast track and the lounge, I consider it a good deal.

I have bid pretty consistently on this and when I have bid it has been 50-75 full. Once on a last minute it was full so the bid did not clear. I have had them clear at 24 hours and also 6 hours. Generally the lower bids were closer to 6 hours. The time it was half full and my bid was denied, I asked at the airport and was given a flat fee for the upgrade which was about five dollars more than I had bid so we got them at the airport.

It's my first time bidding for a business upgrade on any airline. I am flying CPH-HND in two weeks. The minimum bid was 400 EUR, so I offered 450 EUR a few weeks ago. I took a look again, and see the minimum bid being 600 EUR, so I matched it to 600 EUR. I tried to book a new flight in business and saw that only about 4 business seats had been reserved. Maybe I fell into the algorithm's trap. Judging by other commenters, the min bid might fall a few days before departure. Would it then show me a lower min bid even if I bid 600 EUR now? Should I withdraw my bid and check a few days before? I really want that upgrade, since I suffer from tailbone pain due to a ski accident. Your advice is greatly appreciated.

Remember that all non EBG and above travellers have to pay for seat selection in advance, even in J, so looking at the seat map may be a poor indication of how many bookings there actually are.

I would just keep a close eye on the minimum bid if it was me.

Right. I just looked today again and the min bid went from 600EUR to 1010EUR. Like you said, since reserving seats is an additional cost, there is no guarantee that they aren't taken if the display in a new booking page shows them as available. However, the outbound flight still only has 4 seats reserved, while the return flight business seats show like 60% already reserved and the min bid there is also the same... I really hope they lower the bid a couple of days before like some commenters seemed to experience in past replies here!

I noticed this too. The bids were at 270 then went to 380 and now are over 1000 and I’ve not seen them go that high previously. When is your flight? Mines Nov and Dec so I’m hoping they come down closer to the time. I know EB is switching to Sky Team and I wonder if that’s why these numbers have shot up.

How odd that yours already jumped that much. My flight is mid next week.

Will you keep up posted if they come down before the flight and if not, and they are offering upgrades for purchase at the airport will you let us know the cost? I’m perplexed on this one. I haven’t seen it so high over the last few years.

Sure I will. I really hope they do come down!

I see massive price fluctuation on a nearly daily basis varying from as low as 340€ to as high as 1200€ for a flight in November.

Does it actually go down at times?

It goes up and down a lot.

My approach is to usually place a bid when it is low and then forget about it until like five days before departure. From there I will check where things are and make a decision (keep bid the same, raise/lower it, or buy it outright). No need to cancel your bid now if it is low as they only take the money if you are successful.

Keep in mind that holiday periods, major events at your departure or destination, etc can also influence the price. If SAS has any indication that they can sell the seats for revenue, they'll increase the bid price.

If you want real numbers regarding availability, you probably need something like the premium plan from ExpertFlyer where you can usually get data on the actual number of seats sold (disclaimer: I haven't used this option since March 2023, so things may have changed). I used to sign up for a month to get an initial understanding of seating availability, and then sign up again during the month of departure when I actually needed the live data. Would always cancel right after I accomplished (or failed) in my upgrade attempt.

Anecdotally, if you are seeing upgrade pricing of €1k close to departure time (within three days), it's a strong sign that they expect to sell out business class. But your mileage will vary.

Good luck.