Would folks mind sharing the number of people bidding for an upgrade as well? I'd imagine that also has an impact on the success of the bid.

My ORD-CPH bid was for 2 passengers & succeded.

EWR-OSL

Min bid $270, was anywhere from J2 to J0 for rev over the past few days so I bid a bit high, $461. Cleared at T-6.

Bidding from PE to C
OSL>MIA, my bid 272 Euros - Rejected, upgrade at gate only for Eurobonus points, no cash
MIA>CPH, my bid 302 Euros - Rejected, upgrade at checkin for 540 USD, only one C seat left

how is the situation with successful upgrade bids for cash and crediting to another star alliance programs? still according to upgraded booking class or original booking class credited? thx

Original booking class after success bid and upgrade.

I'm booked on IAD-CPH in mid-May in Premium Economy. Until a few days ago, the minimum bid was $800 to upgrade to Business. Now it is $300. Is it best to enter my bid now or wait until closer in? I haven't read where it goes much less than this. If I bid now, what does the group recommend - $310, $350 ??? We are two traveling together.

Edited to add: According to the seat map on Expert Flyer, premium economy is full (two seats blocked, the rest occupied); 18 seats as yet unoccupied in Business. Y, S and B classes are all -0- availability for purchase; C, D and Z are all 9 availability for purchase. Looks promising?

IAD-CPH, Y-J, 37K points (minimum bid), cleared 6 hrs before the flight.

I had a bid for PE (just above minimum) sitting there for a long time. Looked up PE seat map (using that blog link above) earlier today and realized it is full, while J has quite a few free seats. So, changed the bid to J earlier the day of flight. I guess time of bid really doesn't matter.

USD 300 is a good price for PE to C. I suggest to keep it at 300 or 305 as it likely to clear.

I have two SFO-CPH RT flights booked for May (poor planning on my part!) booked in PE (SAS Plus). Each was around $750 USD. Exactly 60 days the J upgrade bid dropped from 800 USD to 300 USD. (Well 3 of 4 legs, the 4th leg a few weeks away from 60 days)

I'll try to report back when it happens, but I've put $303 and $325 bids out there. The 2nd trip is personal travel, and there's two of us, so I'm unsure how that affects our chances, but I am considering paying a little more for that one.
Assuming it goes through on each end, I think I'd feel pretty good about a $1400 RT flight in J :D

MY ARN-EWR flight has 27% load in Y, 52% in PE and 88% (only 4 free seats left) in P.
Currently booked in Y and Y to PE is 13k points, Y to P 33k. Should wait it till the last day and put a bid in then or is it not likely to go lower? Flight is in 4 days.

How do you know the exact loads? If you are counting the reserved vs free seats that has too much error, such as no everyone pays for seat selection, not everyone bothers with seat selection, seat selection on codeshares can be a challenge. So a seemingly empty flight could be full in reality. Best to look at the actual fare buckets to see how full the airline thinks it may be. If you have actual data from the airline on precise booking numbers then I would suggest asking them on the bid system ;-)

Although I would suggest that if it is 27% selected seats combined with lots of low cost booking classes then you may want to hold off on the upgrade as there could be lots of space. Or?

KF

I don't know where you get your numbers from, but for a flight in 4 days, I can assure you that the load in Economy is already much higher than 27%. Most likely the flight will depart almost full in Economy (just my prediction)

Unlikely to go lower. If lowered, you just lower your bid as well (you can amend/cancel your bid afterwards)

thanks! I used the blog link above, but of course it's a good point that Y light tickets probably haven't selected seats yet. I thought the system displays bookings not seats selected. Now I know.

A seat map tell you nothing about the flight load.

Very few pax will pay for ASR in advance. You will get a completely different view once OLCI opens and pax have been automatically assigned seats.