A little more than 2 weeks out from FRA-LAX and Prime Seating is $500. At what point might I expect it to drop to sub $300?

Depends on the actual and anticipated load.
I've seen some flights dropping a week prior, I've seen other flights where it went up less than a week prior. I've seen flights where the price of the Prime Seat did not change.

My gut-feeling based on flights in the past: if all four seats are empty and Business has still a 9+ availability, the price will quite likely drop.
If less than 4 Prime Seats are free and availability of Business is <9, then it does not necessarily drop.

EDIT: at around ~4 days prior to the flight, you'd have to use the hotline to check for the price as the website will no longer show it.
If, during App/Online Check-in, prime seats show up at $0, then the check-in will most likely not succeed as, technically, these seats are blocked. Since agents in Frankfurt usually need to reach out to a Condor rep to get it unblocked, I don't know if a Check-in agent at another airport would be able to sell it to you upon check-in.

I appreciate your knowledgeable contributions on this thread. I've just checked the seat map. Your guidelines indicate it is unlikely to drop. It's good to set my expectations. I just don't see Prime as being worth $500/seat.

I've not flown Condor so what is meant by Prime Seating? Is that found on seatguru or aerolopa then? Thx

Lucky describes it here:
https://onemileatatime.com/insights/...s-class-seats/

Same here.
Prices I paid in the past: 299, 249, and 199 (at Check-in at the airport) €/$

An additional datapoint:
SFO-FRA (05/18) for quite some time now on 999€ (1 Prime Seat left, 6 Business seats available)

First row in the A330-neo.
Bigger seat space, bigger display, 2nd person can sit (and e.g. eat) on the Ottoman.
You get a snack basket, WiFi voucher and a pajama.

Thank you very much. My only problem is that the Condor flights I want to book does not appear on Alaska website. Am I doing something wrong?

Just flew from SFO-FRA in the Prime seats. My wife and I had the two middle front row seats. Some thoughts:
- We paid $300 each. Good value at that price, but on the return they wanted $600 each
- Very nice to have the privacy screen between the two seats down so we could be next to each other during the flight. (but far from say the read-facing Qatar suite where there is no divider at all!)
- The extra foot space was a big plus, I'm 194 cm tall and have big feet so both lounging and sleeping were more comfortable.
- That said, when sleeping the upper part of the seat shell around my head/shoulder/torse is still quite narrow. I had a similar seat on Starlux recently and less than impressed.
- Pajamas were 100% organic cotton and very comfortable. No sweaty polyester.
- Food was solid. Not fancy, not but very adequate.
- Service was good, but very low-key, not overly fawning as one receives on many Asian carriers. Maybe it is just the German way.
- The lack of overhead bins above these two seats made it feel very spacious.
- The one downside is that it is next to galley, there are no privacy screens, and a fair bit of foot traffic from both FA and passengers using the lavatory. So not really a mini-First Class experience.
- The two individual front row seats on either side of the aircraft seemed nicer, more private and an even bigger foot space.

Overall I'd say entirely worthwhile at $300 or less, and maybe not worth it for more than that unless you are tall and with big feet with me in which case it is worth not having my legs tortured, just my upper torso!

This would be nearly enough for me to fly them versus UA which uses recycled plastics and although I am all for helping the environment the UA pyjamas are horrible for flying, although my one bad experience with Condor is enough for me to never fly them, but the pyjamas!

The most seamless way to pay the least for prime seats would be on ex-FRA flights where you can go to the airport ticketing cubicle (T1, HallC) . I have made good experiences with them, paid EUR199 for a prime seat (to BKK). Also, you can do this onboard. Can't hurt to ask.
Condor needs a frequent flyer program.
Now that they were forced (losing the legal battle w. LH re:feeder flights) to expand and get their own domestic/shorthaul network up and running, I hope they will follow through with this expansion strategy and become an LH competitor, hopefully with better management than AB back in the day. LH needs some serious competition......

You can use AS or EK.

I'm not following. - European Commission has forced LH to reinstate the SPA with Condor.

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/pres...l/en/ip_25_260

EK and AS FFPs are only good for earning/redeeming points on Condor. Recognition of status benefits - nope.
And Condor now has a fleet of brand-new shorthaul A32x doing domestic flights - they did this becasue it's cheaper than paying LH for their feeder flights. Flew half-empty aircraft between HAM and FRA multiple times this year...

XL seats on Condor for a flight 4 days out have dropped to $249.99. Unfortunately I've been unable to ticket. I've used the WhatsApp number and am currently on hold - or should I say hoooooooold.

Mission accomplished - but more of a challenge than I expected. My advice to you is to start with a call center and not WhatsApp.

1. I was on hold with WhatsApp for almost 2 hours, despite being told an agent would be with me in 25 minutes The agent told me
   1. Price was $300 not $250
   2. Seats are called Prime not XL
   3. Because I bought from AS and not Condor, there was no credit card associate with my booking. Condor WhatsApp cannot take credit cards.
2. I was told to call one of these numbers: You can contact our service center 24/7 under +49(0)6171 - 69 88 920 (from the US and Canada please call +1 (0) 866 960 7915).
   1. Since I'm in Europe, I started with the German call center. I'd easily get to a question tree and then get disconnected a few questions in.
   2. I called the US number and this time said it was a Condor purchase. I was transferred to an agent within a minute and quickly and efficiently purchased our upgrade.