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LHs strategy: discussion thread for customers, investors, consultants & armchair CEOs

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LHs strategy: discussion thread for customers, investors, consultants & armchair CEOs

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Old Sep 24, 2014, 5:56 am
  #1576  
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Interesting article in Foreign Affairs journal this month about the effect of the ME3 on EU carriers (mentions LH and BA):

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articl...ne/flying-high

Normally paywall however currently article is free to read for all without registration.

Notes the advantages Airbus receives from EK purchasing their A388 production and the complexities of project financing and political versus economic impacts.

Certainly a different take or focal lens on the situation- interesting to read though as it does note the impact on European carriers in particular will continue to be at the minimum detrimental if not resulting in the requirements for even further consolidation related to long haul. It would certainly not align with the LCC Wings concept by the way.
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Old Sep 26, 2014, 2:21 am
  #1577  
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The economist discusses the European legacy carriers and the LCC in the context of current labour disruptions:

Interesting:

“I’m not persuaded that full-service airlines can ever truly compete with low-cost carriers,” says Andrew Charlton of Aviation Advocacy, a consulting firm. “They don’t have the mentality, their business model depends on a hub and they are too handicapped by legacy work practices.” Nor are their leaner rivals standing still. EasyJet’s profits in 2013 were boosted by its expanding business-class sales. In August even Ryanair, hitherto defiantly downmarket, launched a business fare.

Competition of all kinds keeps building for Europe’s flag-carriers, and not just in short-haul. Carriers from the Gulf are extending their networks in Europe, to attract transfer traffic to their own hubs. Etihad, with stakes in a host of airlines including Airberlin of Germany, has recently rescued Alitalia of Italy (in which Air France too is a shareholder). Qatar Airways joined IAG’s OneWorld Alliance last year. Another rising contender, Turkish Airlines, is enjoying double-digit annual growth in traffic, much of it to or from the rest of Europe.


http://www.economist.com/news/busine...rikers-against
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Old Sep 26, 2014, 2:39 am
  #1578  
 
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Originally Posted by TRAVELSIG
The economist discusses the European legacy carriers and the LCC in the context of current labour disruptions:

Interesting:

“I’m not persuaded that full-service airlines can ever truly compete with low-cost carriers,” says Andrew Charlton of Aviation Advocacy, a consulting firm. “They don’t have the mentality, their business model depends on a hub and they are too handicapped by legacy work practices.” Nor are their leaner rivals standing still. EasyJet’s profits in 2013 were boosted by its expanding business-class sales. In August even Ryanair, hitherto defiantly downmarket, launched a business fare.

Competition of all kinds keeps building for Europe’s flag-carriers, and not just in short-haul. Carriers from the Gulf are extending their networks in Europe, to attract transfer traffic to their own hubs. Etihad, with stakes in a host of airlines including Airberlin of Germany, has recently rescued Alitalia of Italy (in which Air France too is a shareholder). Qatar Airways joined IAG’s OneWorld Alliance last year. Another rising contender, Turkish Airlines, is enjoying double-digit annual growth in traffic, much of it to or from the rest of Europe.


http://www.economist.com/news/busine...rikers-against
I was going to post this but you were quicker to do it.

Labour market laws in Europe are never going to change to accommodate reality, at least not fast enough. Therefore, I guess the solution for legacy carriers (like LH, BA and AF) truly is to downsize and create (or acquire) low-cost subsidiaries for short and medium-haul operations.
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Old Sep 26, 2014, 2:57 am
  #1579  
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Originally Posted by mmff
I was going to post this but you were quicker to do it.

Labour market laws in Europe are never going to change to accommodate reality, at least not fast enough. Therefore, I guess the solution for legacy carriers (like LH, BA and AF) truly is to downsize and create (or acquire) low-cost subsidiaries for short and medium-haul operations.
I thought it was a good quick read.^
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Old Sep 26, 2014, 5:03 am
  #1580  
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Interesting translation of Spohr interview from the internal news channel:

Code:
9/24/14
Lufthansa Group  |  Group
“Sooner or later”

In an interview with “manager magazin”, Group CEO Carsten Spohr talks about the strikes by the Vereinigung Cockpit pilots’ union, the “Wings” growth initiative, Miles & More and much more. Read the interview here, which also appeared in the current issue 10/2014.

Mr Spohr, we flew Lufthansa today and still made it to the interview on time. That’s the good news. But when will there finally be an end to the pilot strikes?

SPOHR No doubt you also flew Lufthansa so that you’d arrive safely and on time, since we’re the most punctual airline in Europe. Which is all the more reason why, for our customers in particular, I regret the repeated strikes by the Vereinigung Cockpit pilots’ union. However, the job of the Lufthansa Executive Board is to focus on the long-term well-being of the entire Company.

With our cockpit costs, we are no longer competitive. We want to implement something which is standard practice at all European airlines today and which already applies to half of the Lufthansa Group’s 10,000 pilots – namely that Lufthansa’s pilots work until the age of 60 rather than retiring at 55.

 

Is it really just about early retirement policies? The core of the conflict goes deeper, does is not?

SPOHR At the core lies the clear recognition that growth and future prospects, on the one hand, and maintaining the status quo, on the other, can no longer both be achieved. We are facing a simple question: how can we grow again as a Company, and which elements of the status quo do we need to say goodbye to in order to enable this? We can no longer survive in today’s competitive environment with privileges that, in some cases, go back to policies made 50 years ago. There are simply not enough customers anymore who will pay for them.

 

So it’s a matter of principle – and a long-standing dispute that you won’t give in to any time soon?

SPOHR We have indeed been talking about this issue for years now. I stated my expectation that cockpit costs need to fall by 5 per cent per hour in a staff letter that I wrote more than two years ago, when I was still Chairman of the Lufthansa German Airlines Board. This matter is too important to make the wrong compromises. It would be irresponsible to jeopardise the futures of more than 100,000 Lufthansa employees simply to maintain the status quo for 5,000 pilots. For this reason, we cannot let ourselves be pressured on this issue by industrial disputes.

 

The pilots appear largely unreceptive to these arguments and to any appeals to their sense of responsibility. How can an agreement ever be reached?

SPOHR I don’t believe that all of the pilots think that way. In discussions in person and at events with pilots, I’ve received a lot of support for maintaining Lufthansa as a leading airline or making us the number one carrier again in places where we are no longer on top. Sooner or later, staff members in the cockpit will also come to realise that if there are no prospects for the Company, then there are no prospects for them either. After all, we ultimately have the same long-term interests.

 

The strikes are hitting Lufthansa in a precarious position. A few years ago, Michael O’Leary from the Irish low-cost carrier Ryanair painted a sarcastic “Auf Wiedersehen, Lufthansa!” on his aircraft. It now seems as if the crude joke is gradually becoming a reality. How much of a future does your long-established Company still have?

SPOHR A long-established company that doesn’t change and fails to continually shape the market probably has little future. However, Lufthansa has some practice here and will succeed this time as well. Incidentally, the CEO of one of our competitors that you mentioned is no longer laughing, but is instead trying to copy the idea of our subsidiary Germanwings to combine low-cost fares with a certain standard of quality. In any case, the talk in Ireland lately has allegedly been about more service and customer friendliness. However, frequent announcements from there are the norm, as everyone knows.

 

Unlike you, Ryanair is having more success on the stock market. Since the Lufthansa share’s highest point in 2007, it has lost around 40 per cent of its value.

SPOHR I measure the long-term success of a company by how it brings the famous triangle of customers’, employees’ and shareholders’ interests into balance. It cannot be disputed that many of our competitors have had more success than us on the stock market in recent years. However, these airlines didn’t have success with their customers and employees. In these areas, Lufthansa is further ahead. And I’m certain that our success with customers and employees will make shareholders happier once more in the long term and thus lead to rising share prices. For this to happen, however, we have to speed up our willingness to change.

 

Growth is also in short supply. While the number of planes with the crane is barely increasing, the Arabian Gulf airlines are ordering hundreds of new aircraft. Will Emirates and Co. soon overtake you?

SPOHR No. I think that an awful lot has to happen before one of our competitors from the Gulf generates revenue of €30 billion like we do. However, it’s not just about revenue. For me, it’s even more important to see customers returning to Lufthansa in the premium segment. The number of status customers – in other words, Frequent Travellers, Senators and HON Circle members – in our home markets is rising. And many people who had to go shopping in the Gulf in the middle of the night are now happy again when they can sleep non-stop and enjoy German porcelain in our First Class and Business Class.

 

Some premium customers may return. However, leisure travellers on a normal budget are all the more happy to fly with the competitively priced, well-equipped Gulf carriers...

SPOHR I admit that there are market segments where they will pose a challenge for us. That applies in particular to price-conscious travellers and destinations away from the traditional economic metropolises. There is a lot of growth here, and we have not been a sufficient part of it to date. Already today, around 80 per cent of our intercontinental passengers travel for leisure, and this percentage will continue to rise. Our response to this is our Wings initiative, which will also include a low-cost product for long-haul routes.

 

In doing so, you will be entering into the most brutal competition possible. Tourism routes to popular destinations in particular are already fiercely competitive these days.

SPOHR We definitely don’t want to be lining up in the Dominican Republic’s crowded airspace, but would rather add specific new routes to our existing network that are likely to be of interest to Lufthansa’s leisure travel customers. Southern Africa will play a role here, as will the beaches of Florida and the Indian Ocean. We can achieve a lot here with a different brand that flies at a lower cost and is fresh and innovative.

 

Do you even have the right aircraft for that? Experts say that flying long-haul on a low-cost basis will only be possible with the new lightweight planes, the Dreamliner B787 and the A350 from Airbus. According to reports, however, you want to use outdated models like the fuel-guzzling A340.

SPOHR There’s a misunderstanding here circulating in the media. The question of whether we will use our A340 planes for longer has nothing to do with the new Wings platform. Our plan there is to operate used A330s and B767s for long-distance flights.

 

Which are also very mature aircraft models.

SPOHR But they are available at short notice, and we’ll need them as early as autumn of next year, when the first long-haul flights of the new Wings airline are scheduled to take off. Speed is more important at this stage than waiting years for the optimal aircraft. If the initiative proves to be a success, we’ll certainly examine whether to order Dreamliners or A350s for it.

 

Where will you take off from?

SPOHR The first seven aircraft are to be stationed in Munich, Düsseldorf or Cologne.

 

Is this the beginning of a paradigm shift – away from transfer traffic via the hubs, and towards direct flights that are so popular among passengers?

SPOHR The hub system will remain at the core; we’re simply adding to it. To put it in numbers: We have 600 passenger aircraft. We operate 500 of these at our hubs in Frankfurt, Munich, Zurich, Vienna and Brussels. One hundred of them are earmarked for the Wings initiative, around seven of which are initially for intercontinental routes. Nevertheless, direct traffic is growing faster than transfer flights, and we want to be a greater part of this in the future.

 

Wings is embarking on an expansion course in Europe, too, under the names of Germanwings and Eurowings. Wasn’t the market divided up among big players like Easyjet and Ryanair long ago?

SPOHR There are indeed many players in the market already, and the number is increasing. For this reason, we’re launching our initiative in our home markets – Germany, Switzerland, Austria and Belgium. In terms of strategy, we have to ensure in any case that we maintain our market dominance. There will probably be a consolidation of low-cost carriers at some stage. And we want to play a leading role here. Our aim is clear: we want the Wings group to move up into third position in point-to-point traffic in Europe.

 

The pilots are showing little enthusiasm for Wings. They worry that it will regularly lead to low-level blackmail in the future along the lines of: either you make concessions or the new aircraft will all go to the low-cost subsidiaries. Is this a realistic scenario?

SPOHR We have no intention of forcing our pilots onto another platform. However, I believe that this can happen voluntarily. As a pilot in the Lufthansa Group, you will be able to decide in future whether you aspire to move up more quickly in an environment that is profitable and growing thanks to lower costs. Or whether you want stay put in a core area that is perhaps only growing moderately in order to maintain the status quo. These two scenarios will co-exist to a lesser and lesser extent in the future.

 

So if you want to have a career, you’ll have to switch to the low-cost subsidiaries?

SPOHR There’s no doubt that you can make captain more quickly in a growing airline than in a premium carrier whose primary source of growth is larger aircraft and where positions only become vacant when pilots retire. That reflects the current reality of the market and is not due to the maliciousness of management.

 

It seems as if all the long-established carriers are growing through low-cost subsidiaries at present, with Air France-KLM recently announcing a low-cost campaign. Is flying in Europe becoming purely a low-cost business?

SPOHR I don’t believe so. In Germany in particular, customers want certain standards of service. Lufthansa, in any case, will continue to operate as a premium carrier with its core brand, and not just on long-haul routes.

 

Your customers have at times questioned these standards in recent years. A not-insignificant number of frequent flyers have complained that Lufthansa is saving money at the expense of its best passengers.

SPOHR It goes without saying that customer satisfaction should not suffer as a result of what is essential cost management. I admit that there have been grievances, which is why we have made important changes. We have upgraded our catering in First Class and Business Class, significantly improved our range of in-flight entertainment, and are introducing miles bonuses that can be selected additionally with Miles & More Selections. In addition, all of our First Class and Business Class cabins will have been refitted with the new seats by the coming winter. From customer surveys, we can clearly see that satisfaction levels are increasing again.

 

You still need to make further improvements to your Miles & More loyalty programme, though. Upgrades and attractive bonus flights are hard to come by.

SPOHR We are the victims of our own success here. The load factor of our aircraft is reaching record levels. This means that we often have to decide whether we can sell the scarce number of seats or release them for customers to redeem their miles. In view of the tight margins in our business, this poses a dilemma, to be very honest. We are therefore planning to also introduce variable bonus awards.

 

This means that miles will have to be used for popular flights and upgrades?

SPOHR Yes. In exchange, however, we will create greater capacities and new incentives for customers who have already reached their status and want to take advantage of other benefits. In addition, we will be testing a simple discount system for European point-to-point traffic that will also reward customers who only fly occasionally. I believe that many frequent flyers and new customers will be excited about these new features. •

The interview was conducted by Manager Magazin editors Michael Machatschke and Martin Noe. Photo: Christof Mattes

 

Kerstin Speitmann
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Old Sep 26, 2014, 5:27 am
  #1581  
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Interesting read. I wonder what "variable bonus awards" mentioned in the last question are going to turn out to be? Sounds ominous.
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Old Sep 26, 2014, 5:34 am
  #1582  
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Most likely cash+points options when booking regular tickets, like SQ/SK/AY and others offer today.
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Old Sep 26, 2014, 6:24 am
  #1583  
 
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I found this graphic from a similar article in the Wall Street Journal interesting for two reasons:

1.) the LCCs now offer more inventory than the legacies in the EU (about 9% annual average growth over the past 5 years vs. ~0.6% for the legacy carriers).
2.) whoever wrote the list of legacy EU airlines left the largest one off the list.




Poor LH is getting whacked on all sides. Painful spot to be in. Unfortunately, trying to save LH by cutting costs makes about as much sense as trying to save the Titanic by simply bailing water...LH needs a whole new plan.

http://online.wsj.com/articles/air-f...628894?tesla=y

Last edited by N1003U; Sep 26, 2014 at 6:38 am Reason: link to source article
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Old Sep 26, 2014, 6:42 am
  #1584  
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Originally Posted by oliver2002
Most likely cash+points options when booking regular tickets, like SQ/SK/AY and others offer today.
I suspect far more likely similar to the Aeroplan program with dynamic award levels based on flight demand and projected availability.
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Old Sep 26, 2014, 7:11 am
  #1585  
 
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Originally Posted by N1003U
..the LCCs now offer more inventory than the legacies in the EU (about 9% annual average growth over the past 5 years vs. ~0.6% for the legacy carriers)..
But that does make sense ... everywhere. Even here in Asia, I use legacies less and less as they still have inhibitive pricing and benefit models and their answers to LCCs are usually their own LCC which doesn't offer anything over a cheaper and true LCC (lounge, extra luggage, segregated seating). And on competing sectors, the low fares offer no mileage credit and FFP benefits.

"The customer is stupid, trapped, and equally inflexible as we are" is still the main creed of most legacies out there.
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Old Sep 26, 2014, 7:39 am
  #1586  
 
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Originally Posted by oliver2002
Interesting translation of Spohr interview from the internal news channel:
[/CODE]
Interesting Spohr states in the interview: "The number of status customers – in other words, Frequent Travellers, Senators and HON Circle members – in our home markets is rising."

Even more HONs!!!
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Old Sep 26, 2014, 8:12 am
  #1587  
 
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He can claim what he wants.

FTLs, probably. Most FTLs can qualify via segments, so their numbers won't drop much. In fact, many SEN that lose SENhood will be 2 years FTL and might requalify at that level.

SEN and HON, I doubt very much. SEN will definitely lose quite some Eco-SEN and P/Z-SEN in the next 2 years, while HON will definitely be losing some because of P/Z enhancement, and general migration to competitors for both SEN&HON.

But as qualify period for all status in M&M is 2 years, it might be that in fact at the very moment, there are more HON/SEN/FTL than earlier, but the numbers will drop significantly over the next years.

But LH group has shown many times that they're not too good at looking into the future.
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Old Sep 26, 2014, 8:38 am
  #1588  
 
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Originally Posted by weero
But that does make sense ... everywhere. Even here in Asia, I use legacies less and less as they still have inhibitive pricing and benefit models and their answers to LCCs are usually their own LCC which doesn't offer anything over a cheaper and true LCC (lounge, extra luggage, segregated seating). And on competing sectors, the low fares offer no mileage credit and FFP benefits.

"The customer is stupid, trapped, and equally inflexible as we are" is still the main creed of most legacies out there.
That is a harsh description, but, OTOH, sometimes the truth can be painful.

Indeed the LCC value proposition is clear: it gets me from one place to another at the lowest possible price. This is a clean strategy and seems to work if you are good at keeping your cost base under control. For example:

http://online.wsj.com/articles/ryana...nce-1411633557.

However, trying to compete with the LCC model using a full-service network strikes me as just silly. As a legacy you can typically neither beat the LCCs nor join them (I guess we'll see what happens with 4U, but it doesn't look to good at present for their long-term survival in current form/ownership).

The paths forward for the legacies are limited: differentiate with premium features (features customers will pay for), shrink your capacity, merge into markets where competition from the LCCs is limited, or die (sorry, no one said life was fair). There is at least one more feasible path--that is to become a permanent government-subsidized service, but no one likes to talk about that option openly except to claim it as an unfair advantage of the competition.

As a frequent traveler of increasingly advanced middle age (what seems to be a growing demographic), I am certainly willing to part with a few extra €/₩/$/£/¥, etc. in exchange for the allegedly more comprehensive, integrated, and civilized flight/travel experience the legacy airlines offer.

My problem with LH (and like-minded carriers) at present is that often the value proposition of premium travel with a legacy carrier is not all that clear to me.

Instead of making it easier for me to spend extra on my travel, some of the legacy carriers seem instead determined to make it harder. They too often confuse cost with value, and as a result sometimes offer some really silly products. They remove product content, and then try to offer it to me at a the same or even higher price, and wonder why I look elsewhere for suppliers.

When you look at recent LH product changes, be it retail pricing, FFP devaluation, ticketing restrictions, change/refund fees, etc., any one of these things examined alone is not really a big deal. But when you put them all together, you often get crap for a value proposition. As a result, you wind up back at the place you want to avoid: competing on price--something we started out saying was not feasible.

So the struggle of the legacy carriers goes on...
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Old Oct 1, 2014, 3:50 am
  #1589  
 
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CH-aviation published a piece on PrivatAir operating the LonghaulWings

Lufthansa (LH, Frankfurt Int'l) is considering outsourcing the operation of fourteen A340-300s to Swiss operator PrivatAir (Switzerland) (PV, Geneva) in a bid to circumvent anticipated trade union resistance to its budget long haul plans.

Lufthansa plans to refit up to fourteen A340-300s with leisure-oriented cabins featuring 18 Business Class seats, 19 Premium Economy seats and 261 Economy seats for use on flights to leisure destinations such as Las Vegas McCarran and Mauritius beginning in November 2015.

The airline claims that without a streamlining of costs on these routes, it would not be able to effectively compete with other carriers.

Aside from the project's operational aspect, Lufthansa says staff overheads on the routes will also have to be reduced; a move that could lead to a stand-off with unions and eventually more financially crippling strikes.

While it was able to reach an agreement with cabin crew union UFO earlier this month, management has been unable to reach a similar deal with pilots' union Vereinigung Cockpit (VC) that would have required pilots to work longer hours before receiving overtime benefits.

According to Germany's Spiegel magazine, it is for this reason that management is now considering outsourcing its leisure A340 operations to PrivatAir with the Swiss carrier operating the aircraft on Lufthansa's behalf and with its crew.

While Lufthansa has confirmed plans to use the A340s on budget flights, it has not commented on the Spiegel report.

Lufthansa has, over the last six months, outlined a series of ambitious budget-oriented projects aimed at regaining market share lost to the likes of Ryanair (FR, Dublin Int'l) and easyJet (U2, London Luton) in the regional European market and to Emirates (EK, Dubai Int'l), Qatar Airways (QR, Doha Hamad Int'l), Etihad Airways (EY, Abu Dhabi Int'l) in the long haul intercontinental market.
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Old Oct 1, 2014, 5:49 am
  #1590  
 
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I promised to drag this post over here from the strike thread, where maybe the discussion is more relevant:

Originally Posted by kamel123
What I'm getting at is this: compare the structure of LH group as it stands today (referring just to the passenger airline part), with its numerous legal entities, brands, hubs... All this complexity creates absolutely zero value for the customer, it's just there for 1) historical/legacy reasons - management being too reluctant in the past to do real cuts, 2) political reasons - need to maintain separate carriers in order to keep slots, 3) labor policy reasons - need to create new entities in order to get around prohibitive labor costs at LH mainline. With such a structure it's just extremely hard to compete against others that don't have these issues (LCCs, ME3). If you were to build it greenfield, it would look completely differently.

Not sure if it's at all reformable, but this strike shows that it's a very long way to go.
Given the problems and/or crises (the difference being a matter of urgency, not necessarily of seriousness) LH is facing, adding complexity of multiple niche carriers, especially in customer facing products seems to me at best counterproductive.

LH should be focusing their energy, and instead they are diffusing it. Focus fosters proactive actions and movement toward problem solving. Diffusion brings reactive actions distracts attention from the core problems.

If LH really believes they are the #1 airline, then they need to focus on that and provide some products that prove it. OTOH, if they want to try to be everything to everyone and compete against the whole world in all segments, then good luck with that.

At least in the meantime while they are deciding, I live near a couple of major airports that give me a choice of carriers.
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