CPH-Flyer

HNL*2, LAS, ORD, LAX, DFW.

Maybe move Melbourne to HND to get something unique. Or a new Brisbaine flight.

Rest is fairly obvious moves.

JALPak

That would create a SS7 rotation problem if they leave 1x JFK at NRT with SS7 and move ORD and LAX SS7 flights to HND.

joejones

rustykettel

Third JAL to JFK, or switching the existing NRT and leaving JFK with no NRT service?

Are there enough frames that switching some to HND would open up new destinations via NRT such as MIA or MEX?

JALPak

FireEmblemPride

Looks like I was right on the half slot -- the India slot is a split pair between daytime and evening, so JL and NH will either take off OR land in the daytime, but not both. The Indian carrier (AI, probably) will, in contrast, be allowed to take off AND land in the daytime as they wish.

I'm actually surprised Japan couldn't generate more half-slots for Turkey and Australia in order to open up service elsewhere else. Canada got the short end of the stick here, given the size and prominence of the country (it's in the G7, but Australia isn't, for example). A slot to MEX would have connected HND to Latin America, another missed opportunity IMO.

This is it for HND for the foreseeable future. Unless certain carriers take the plunge on evening slots, carriers like KL, IB, etc. are shut out of HND and destinations like AMS, MAD, BCN, ZRH, disconnected from Tokyo's close-in airport.

coolfish1103

Speculations:

1. HEL
2. DEL
3. MEL
4. DME
5. PEK, DLC
6. BOS, LAX, DFW, ORD, HNLx2

Currently 13 planes, I don't know exactly how JAL does the rotations, but still got capacities and lots of time wasted.

Narita: 5 planes rotation

1x JFK (1825-1440)
1x LAX (1720-1645)
1x ORD (1050-1535)

ORD1-JFK2-LAX4-ORD6-JFK7
LAX2-ORD4-JFK5-LAX7
ORD2-JFK3-LAX5-ORD7
JFK1-LAX3-ORD5-JFK6
LAX1-ORD3-JFK4-LAX6

Overnight at JFK for 17 hours
Overnight at NRT for 18 hours

Haneda: 7 planes rotation

1x CDG (1040-1525)
1x JFK (1040-1625)
1x LHR (1355-1500)
1x SFO (1950-1900)

JFK1-SFO2-JFK4-SFO5-JFK7
SFO1-JFK3-SFO4-JFK6-SFO7
JFK2-SFO3-JFK5-SFO6

Overnight at HND for 15 hours.

2 for LHR operating on it's own, overnight at HND for 23 hours.
2 for CDG operating on it's own, overnight at HND for 19 hours.

There is a plane as a back up/maintenance sitting there as well.

I can see Narita down to just LAX and JFK operating First Class and ORD moved to HND with an additional LAX operating.

Narita: 3 planes rotation

1x JFK (1825-1440)
1x LAX (1720-1645)

LAX1-JFK2-LAX4-JFK5-LAX7
JFK1-LAX3-JFK4-LAX6-JFK7
LAX2-JFK3-LAX5-JFK6

Overnight at JFK for 17 hours

Haneda: 9 planes rotation

1x JFK (1040-1625)
1x LHR (1355-1500)
1x CDG (1040-1525)
1x SFO (1950-1900)
1x ORD (Expecting an evening departure flight similar to JFK at NRT)
1x LAX (Expecting an evening departure flight similar to SFO)

CPH-Flyer

If they did like ANA and sent the Narita to JFK plane to Haneda, and the Haneda JFK plane to Narita, plus tweaked the schedule a bit, they should be able to reduce that JFK down time significantly.

coolfish1103

The current NH schedule is:
1020HND-1015JFK1200-1500NRT1640-1635JFK1815-HND2115

The only notable difference between JL and NH would be departing from JFK and personally feel the NH flight timed better as they spread apart.

JL can certainly do their own version of the rotation, but if they do that, then LAX will be left out on the rotation with nothing to rotate with at NRT (unless ORD sticks at NRT, downtime would still be 18 hours).

ORD1-LAX2-ORD4-LAX5-ORD7
LAX1-ORD3-LAX4-ORD6-LAX7
ORD2-LAX3-ORD5-LAX6

- This rotation is certainly possible by adding a regional flight with First Class.

JALPak

musashino22

My take on the new allotted slots starting 29 Mar 2020.

1. AUS: Not sure what will happen to the current night time slots used by NH and QF to fly to SYD and vice-versa. If I remember it correctly, AUS was not included in the last round of allocation whereby NH received 11 versus JL's 5. A separate open skies agreement was included as part of the wider JP-AU Economic Partnership Agreement where both countries' airlines can now fly freely between major airports except HND where only unutilized late night/early morning slots can be allocated. If I am not mistaken this is very similar setup to the previous night time slots to the US until an agreement was reached whereby 5 slots (4 day / 1 night) were made available to carriers on both sides. By moving the current allocation to day time, NH and QF will have better aircraft utilization.

My take: SYD - JL (new) / NH&QF (re-timed); remaining slot will go to QF for MEL unless VA vehemently complains that it wants a say on these things and get it for themselves.

2. CHN: DLC and one of any of the following cities: Chengdu, Shenzen, Qingdao, Xiamen, or Xi'an. Last three were previous JL routes which were cancelled before bankruptcy filing. JL can challenge NH at Chengdu although the demand there fluctuates as NH shifts between 7X to 4X weekly depending on season. Shenzen is CHN's Silicon Valley and is part of the Guangzhou-Shenzen-Macau-Hong Kong corridor.

3. USA: 773W: LAX & ORD; 788/9: SEA & BOS; 772W: HNL x 2. JL could transfer up to 2 of their current 4 x HNL bound flights at NRT to HND to make up for lost ground and get away from the carnage that NH's A380 is causing. I suppose JL would still keep the current LAX at NRT and continue to cover for AA's afternoon ORD slot but downgrade both flights to a 788/9 Sky Suite or something similar. SEA and BOS should move to HND with the former as explicitly mentioned by JL during their relaunch, while BOS has a way more higher O&D traffic vs DFW. I would like to have LAS as a new route from HND as it has a higher O&D over BOS but if I am not mistaken, more than 80% is leisure so margin is not that great. This route is good for ZipAir after ICN/BKK with 2021 as the earliest possible launch.

JL still has 3 x 789s scheduled for delivery before the start of S20 schedule so it has some leeway to add new/retain routes such as LAX, ORD or even SFO at NRT.
NH could probably go for the following: SFO, SJC, IAH, IAD, SEA, HNL (Just thinking how insane the O&D traffic is between TYO - HNL - last time I checked it was already around 1.4M / year or something)

4. RUS: DME: JL & NH / SVO: SU; VVO: S7 or SU
5. IND: DEL
6. FIN: HEL

Sad to see that KLM/AMS, IBE/MAD, SWR/ZRH, MAS/KUL didn't get any slots. BCN would be one of the good route to start from TYO but apparently Spain' protectionist government only has designated flights in and out of MAD to be able to use Russian Airspace
.
My 2-yens worth of thought.

JALPak

That will leave 2 SS7 for JFK-NRT unless they downgrade that flight.

NRT-BOS needs to rely on transit demand, that's why JL re-timed the flight to allow same-day connection in both directions couple of years ago. Not sure if the domestic transit + O/D demand for HND-BOS is good enough.

coolfish1103

I'd love to leave and arrive from Haneda but I find it difficult for them to ax Narita F service altogether after renovating the lounge for Tokyo 2020.

It's also not wise to give up the market all to ANA. If ANA can do F at LAX and JFK, JAL sure can as well.

JALPak

coolfish1103

I actually find it smart they consolidate the First Class Lounge all to 4F. There are certain passengers that will never head up to that 4F cause it doesn't have the sushi (back then). It was always a zoo in 3F. I hope they will also consider consolidations at Haneda. Make the current Sakura Skyview lounge a dedicated First Lounge and then just Sakura lounge at the original spot.

Now you will all go to this lounge unless you want the champagne at Satellite (or you are departing at Satellite wanting to stop by). The current 4F space is also bigger than the original 3F space (albeit smaller than before cause there was First in 4F). Do we know if 3F will be entirely Sakura lounge? As of current renovation it seems the Sakura lounge didn't take all the spaces.

I think it depends on whether 35K will still offer First. If there will be First on 35K, then I find Narita still feasible to support.