sbm12

The DoT is requiring all airlines to reapply for Haneda service with the shift to daytime slots. DL has applied to keep its LAX service and add ATL and MSP as well.

I think that ATL has a very strong chance of being awarded though that may come at the expense of the LAX slot; I would be surprised if the DoT chose to keep two at LAX with a full reallocation, especially now that there is increased demand from other airports. I think MSP is a pipe dream at best.

UA applied for EWR/SFO. AA for LAX/DFW. HA for HNL/KOA with the twist that the second frequency would be 3x KOA/4x HNL weekly and would be considered as a night slot if that's all it can get.

More details/analysis of the new Haneda slot applications on my blog if anyone cares.

(Bold codes are the cities with existing service)

MSPeconomist

MSP is surprising since DTW apparently didn't work at all as a HND route. It's probably the placeholder to be turned down.

Personally, I'd rather keep the nonstop NRT route than introduce HND at bad times and without onward DL intraAsiaconnections.

I guess DL is afraid to ask for SEA after losing the route due to inactivity not so long ago.

sbm12

SEA would have stood zero chance given the recent dropping IMO. As for "bad times" not sure what you mean there. The whole point of the re-bidding is because these are daytime slots.

dzflyer

This is great for people who have business in tokyo and are not connecting but terrible overall strategy for delta I would think.

jrkmsp

Delta ranked its preferences as:

1) HND-LAX/MSP/ATL
2) HND-LAX/MSP
3) HND-LAX

I think the logic is that MSP can pick up more logical connecting traffic to HND than ATL can.

readywhenyouare

They should be able to keep LAX but that should be it.

ClipperDelta

MSP-HND is actually Delta's #2 choice. Their application states the following order of preference:
#1: LAX-HND
#2: MSP-HND
#3: ATL-HND

These are for daylight flight times...not the "bad" night-time schedules.

Most successful routes depend on a healthy mix of O&D and connecting traffic. HND is the preferred airport for TYO. If DL ignored HND and let the other carriers get all the HND rights, they would lose a chunk of the O&D traffic, thus worsening their overall TYO situation further...

ashill

It wouldn't shock me if DL is engaging in some gamesmanship here, thinking that ATL is their strongest case (since they knew that AA would also apply for LAX) and thus likely to be awarded anyway. I wonder if it will come back to bite them if the DOT has had enough of DL's shenanigans with HND in general and awards LAX-HND to AA, then sees MSP as a bogus request with very little local traffic. And if DL didn't get their second choice, why give them their third?

Although maybe MSP does make sense since ATL doesn't have a ton of local traffic anyway and, as jrkmsp pointed out, MSP serves more connecting cities logically. In fact, with only MSP and DFW requested in the interior of the country and MSP being better-located geographically for connections, maybe MSP does stand a chance after all.

I'm surprised that neither DL nor AA requested JFK and that nobody requested ORD.

FireEmblemPride

Interesting choices all around, particularly by UA and DL. Also notable that neither AA or DL are applying for services they previously dropped, and the fact neither UA nor AA applied for ORD indicates that either JL, NH or both will be operating that route. UA applying for EWR is interesting because NH is almost assuredly going to begin JFK. Perhaps it's intentional so that UA definitely gets SFO, which JL may or may not keep around. Meanwhile AA not applying for JFK assures JL will operate it.

LAX will probably stay with DL as the service has been operating longer and we need to keep competitive allocations in mind. MSP is a shocker, since I don't think DTW would have been less likely to succeed. My predictions are as follows:

SFO - UA
LAX - DL
ATL - DL
MSP - DL
DFW - AA
HNL - HA (evening)

Of the 12 slots, assuming NH gets 4 and JL gets 2, that leaves the allocations as:

Star: 5
Oneworld: 3
Skyteam: 3
HA: 1

readywhenyouare

Im not doubting you but I guess I just don't understand this statement. ATL serves far more destinations than MSP. Especially if we are talking about south/central/Latin America, Mexico, and the Caribbean. Is there more demand for places like Tokyo-Fargo, ND? If so then yes MSP makes more sense.

sbm12

I think odds of one carrier getting 3 while the other 3 only get 1 each are very, very, very low.

ashill

It's just that any city west or north of ATL (DTW, CHI, Texas, BOS, NYC, WAS, the entire Midwest, Northeast, and mid-Atlantic, etc) can be served more directly via MSP than via ATL. All the large markets have plenty of service to both ATL and MSP. And the DOT cares mostly about providing US markets with good access to HND; I don't think connecting the Caribbean and Latin America to HND is very important to the DOT in the route proceedings.

Separately, DL's chutzpah is amazing. From their application:

Obviously, DL is so special that they are entitled to as many as AA/JL and UA/NH combined, rather than each getting about 1/3 of the slots, but DL chose to be so incredibly magnanimous as to request only about 1/3.

ashill

I think that NYC getting a slot for a US carrier is a shoe-in, so I think that UA's EWR service is a shoe-in (since neither AA nor DL asked for JFK). I also think that UA's SFO is a shoe-in, and it's most likely that only one LAX slot will be awarded. That leaves four applications (HNL, DFW, ATL, MSP) for two slots. I agree that HNL will probably be left in the evening, so DL and AA will each get one of the slots. So daytime slots:

EWR (UA)
SFO (UA)
LAX (DL or AA; DL may have pissed the DOT off with their SEA shenanigans and opposing this whole proceeding enough to award this to AA. If they haven't, DL will probably win as you say if for no other reason than they're once again proposing a larger, perhaps-unworkable airplane than AA)
DFW (AA)
MSP (DL)

sbm12

Except that's not really what HA applied for. Its first choice is HNL daytime. Second bid is a second daytime slot split. Third is the spit for a night slot. Giving everyone else first or second choice and relegating HA to third, especially when it is the HND service which has actually operated since awarded, would be a significant slight to the company.

FireEmblemPride

It's all in the JVs. This is a legitimate argument by DL. If DL received all 3 slots, then Skyteam would still only have 25% of the total US-HND market.

In the past, the DOT was fine giving DL 2 slots and UA 0. 3-1 is less slanted.

*A getting 50% of the slots, and 2 flights to NYC sounds incredibly unlikely. If JL decides to do JFK, then 25% of flights would go to NYC.