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DL applies for Haneda slots: ATL/LAX/MSP

DL applies for Haneda slots: ATL/LAX/MSP

Old Apr 21, 16, 5:35 pm
  #1  
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DL applies for Haneda slots: ATL/LAX/MSP

The DoT is requiring all airlines to reapply for Haneda service with the shift to daytime slots. DL has applied to keep its LAX service and add ATL and MSP as well.

I think that ATL has a very strong chance of being awarded though that may come at the expense of the LAX slot; I would be surprised if the DoT chose to keep two at LAX with a full reallocation, especially now that there is increased demand from other airports. I think MSP is a pipe dream at best.

UA applied for EWR/SFO. AA for LAX/DFW. HA for HNL/KOA with the twist that the second frequency would be 3x KOA/4x HNL weekly and would be considered as a night slot if that's all it can get.

More details/analysis of the new Haneda slot applications on my blog if anyone cares.

(Bold codes are the cities with existing service)
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Old Apr 21, 16, 5:40 pm
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MSP is surprising since DTW apparently didn't work at all as a HND route. It's probably the placeholder to be turned down.

Personally, I'd rather keep the nonstop NRT route than introduce HND at bad times and without onward DL intraAsiaconnections.

I guess DL is afraid to ask for SEA after losing the route due to inactivity not so long ago.
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Old Apr 21, 16, 5:49 pm
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SEA would have stood zero chance given the recent dropping IMO. As for "bad times" not sure what you mean there. The whole point of the re-bidding is because these are daytime slots.
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Old Apr 21, 16, 7:55 pm
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This is great for people who have business in tokyo and are not connecting but terrible overall strategy for delta I would think.
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Old Apr 21, 16, 8:04 pm
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Delta ranked its preferences as:

1) HND-LAX/MSP/ATL
2) HND-LAX/MSP
3) HND-LAX

I think the logic is that MSP can pick up more logical connecting traffic to HND than ATL can.
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Old Apr 21, 16, 8:06 pm
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They should be able to keep LAX but that should be it.
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Old Apr 21, 16, 8:06 pm
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Originally Posted by MSPeconomist View Post
MSP is surprising since DTW apparently didn't work at all as a HND route. It's probably the placeholder to be turned down. .
MSP-HND is actually Delta's #2 choice. Their application states the following order of preference:
#1: LAX-HND
#2: MSP-HND
#3: ATL-HND

Originally Posted by MSPeconomist View Post
Personally, I'd rather keep the nonstop NRT route than introduce HND at bad times and without onward DL intraAsiaconnections.
.
These are for daylight flight times...not the "bad" night-time schedules.

Originally Posted by dzflyer
but terrible overall strategy for delta I would think.
Most successful routes depend on a healthy mix of O&D and connecting traffic. HND is the preferred airport for TYO. If DL ignored HND and let the other carriers get all the HND rights, they would lose a chunk of the O&D traffic, thus worsening their overall TYO situation further...
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Old Apr 21, 16, 8:47 pm
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Originally Posted by ClipperDelta View Post
MSP-HND is actually Delta's #2 choice. Their application states the following order of preference:
#1: LAX-HND
#2: MSP-HND
#3: ATL-HND
It wouldn't shock me if DL is engaging in some gamesmanship here, thinking that ATL is their strongest case (since they knew that AA would also apply for LAX) and thus likely to be awarded anyway. I wonder if it will come back to bite them if the DOT has had enough of DL's shenanigans with HND in general and awards LAX-HND to AA, then sees MSP as a bogus request with very little local traffic. And if DL didn't get their second choice, why give them their third?

Although maybe MSP does make sense since ATL doesn't have a ton of local traffic anyway and, as jrkmsp pointed out, MSP serves more connecting cities logically. In fact, with only MSP and DFW requested in the interior of the country and MSP being better-located geographically for connections, maybe MSP does stand a chance after all.

I'm surprised that neither DL nor AA requested JFK and that nobody requested ORD.
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Old Apr 21, 16, 8:53 pm
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Interesting choices all around, particularly by UA and DL. Also notable that neither AA or DL are applying for services they previously dropped, and the fact neither UA nor AA applied for ORD indicates that either JL, NH or both will be operating that route. UA applying for EWR is interesting because NH is almost assuredly going to begin JFK. Perhaps it's intentional so that UA definitely gets SFO, which JL may or may not keep around. Meanwhile AA not applying for JFK assures JL will operate it.

LAX will probably stay with DL as the service has been operating longer and we need to keep competitive allocations in mind. MSP is a shocker, since I don't think DTW would have been less likely to succeed. My predictions are as follows:

SFO - UA
LAX - DL
ATL - DL
MSP - DL
DFW - AA
HNL - HA (evening)

Of the 12 slots, assuming NH gets 4 and JL gets 2, that leaves the allocations as:

Star: 5
Oneworld: 3
Skyteam: 3
HA: 1
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Old Apr 21, 16, 8:54 pm
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Originally Posted by ashill View Post
MSP serves more connecting cities logically.
Im not doubting you but I guess I just don't understand this statement. ATL serves far more destinations than MSP. Especially if we are talking about south/central/Latin America, Mexico, and the Caribbean. Is there more demand for places like Tokyo-Fargo, ND? If so then yes MSP makes more sense.
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Old Apr 21, 16, 9:14 pm
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Originally Posted by FireEmblemPride View Post
My predictions are as follows:

SFO - UA
LAX - DL
ATL - DL
MSP - DL
DFW - AA
HNL - HA (evening)
I think odds of one carrier getting 3 while the other 3 only get 1 each are very, very, very low.
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Old Apr 21, 16, 9:15 pm
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Originally Posted by readywhenyouare View Post
Im not doubting you but I guess I just don't understand this statement. ATL serves far more destinations than MSP. Especially if we are talking about south/central/Latin America, Mexico, and the Caribbean. Is there more demand for places like Tokyo-Fargo, ND? If so then yes MSP makes more sense.
It's just that any city west or north of ATL (DTW, CHI, Texas, BOS, NYC, WAS, the entire Midwest, Northeast, and mid-Atlantic, etc) can be served more directly via MSP than via ATL. All the large markets have plenty of service to both ATL and MSP. And the DOT cares mostly about providing US markets with good access to HND; I don't think connecting the Caribbean and Latin America to HND is very important to the DOT in the route proceedings.

Separately, DL's chutzpah is amazing. From their application:

Delta has no Japanese carrier as a joint-venture partner, and therefore receives no benefit at Haneda from the allocation of slot pairs to Japanese carriers. Therefore, Delta would have been justified in requesting, and the Department in awarding, each of the daytime slot pairs to Delta. Instead, Delta is seeking only three of the available slot pairs to introduce robust competition among alliance carriers at Haneda
Obviously, DL is so special that they are entitled to as many as AA/JL and UA/NH combined, rather than each getting about 1/3 of the slots, but DL chose to be so incredibly magnanimous as to request only about 1/3.

Last edited by ashill; Apr 21, 16 at 9:22 pm
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Old Apr 21, 16, 9:21 pm
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Originally Posted by FireEmblemPride View Post
LAX will probably stay with DL as the service has been operating longer and we need to keep competitive allocations in mind. MSP is a shocker, since I don't think DTW would have been less likely to succeed. My predictions are as follows:

SFO - UA
LAX - DL
ATL - DL
MSP - DL
DFW - AA
HNL - HA (evening)
I think that NYC getting a slot for a US carrier is a shoe-in, so I think that UA's EWR service is a shoe-in (since neither AA nor DL asked for JFK). I also think that UA's SFO is a shoe-in, and it's most likely that only one LAX slot will be awarded. That leaves four applications (HNL, DFW, ATL, MSP) for two slots. I agree that HNL will probably be left in the evening, so DL and AA will each get one of the slots. So daytime slots:

EWR (UA)
SFO (UA)
LAX (DL or AA; DL may have pissed the DOT off with their SEA shenanigans and opposing this whole proceeding enough to award this to AA. If they haven't, DL will probably win as you say if for no other reason than they're once again proposing a larger, perhaps-unworkable airplane than AA)
DFW (AA)
MSP (DL)
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Old Apr 21, 16, 9:24 pm
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Originally Posted by ashill View Post
I agree that HNL will probably be left in the evening,
Except that's not really what HA applied for. Its first choice is HNL daytime. Second bid is a second daytime slot split. Third is the spit for a night slot. Giving everyone else first or second choice and relegating HA to third, especially when it is the HND service which has actually operated since awarded, would be a significant slight to the company.
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Old Apr 21, 16, 9:28 pm
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Originally Posted by sbm12 View Post
I think odds of one carrier getting 3 while the other 3 only get 1 each are very, very, very low.
It's all in the JVs. This is a legitimate argument by DL. If DL received all 3 slots, then Skyteam would still only have 25% of the total US-HND market.

In the past, the DOT was fine giving DL 2 slots and UA 0. 3-1 is less slanted.

Originally Posted by ashill View Post
I think that NYC getting a slot for a US carrier is a shoe-in, so I think that UA's EWR service is a shoe-in (since neither AA nor DL asked for JFK). I also think that UA's SFO is a shoe-in, and it's most likely that only one LAX slot will be awarded. That leaves four applications (HNL, DFW, ATL, MSP) for two slots. I agree that HNL will probably be left in the evening, so DL and AA will each get one of the slots. So daytime slots:
*A getting 50% of the slots, and 2 flights to NYC sounds incredibly unlikely. If JL decides to do JFK, then 25% of flights would go to NYC.

Last edited by FireEmblemPride; Apr 21, 16 at 9:36 pm
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