I think that we need to know quite a bit more about the virus before we can even think of a timeline right now, not just for flying, but for opening up the economy too.
We need to understand, for instance, the exact incubation period, at what point someone becomes contagious, whether someone who has had it can get it again, whether someone who has it can infect others if they get infected, how fast and whether it mutates (making vaccines and testing a potential challenge) and morbidity rates.

To me the next goal after containment needs to be to not eradicate it (that is a long way off right now), but to get it to the threat level that we currently have with influenza, which most people feel is acceptable (we don't tend to automatically go into stay-at-home for the 'flu).

That means good testing, having treatments that make it less lethal, or less contagious or both, which includes drugs that alleviate the worst symptoms and permanent damage and vaccines.

Until then, being in an elevated (but not super-high) risk category, I am staying at home.

Yet the virus came from Asia.

NZ effectively saying no travel abroad until after a vaccine comes...

What is your point?

I realize you are being sarcastic, but I think it is easy to see instances in which test use for tourism could be ethical. For example a tourist going to a high end eco-safari lodge, say spending 10kk pp in the local African economy at the expense of two tests. That is easy to justify, the 3rd world economies are going to be devastated by the "cure" that they are putting in place and that money will have a very meaningful impact. A testing program in regions where public health resources are severely limited and the disease is already endemic is not necessarily going to save lives. Now a couple of average joes flying off for a budget all inclusive beach vacation, that is harder to justify

In the past 2 months, we have gone from testing that used a less than pleasant form of swab (nasopharyngeal) and took weeks for results, to a saliva test that takes minutes for results.

We do have blood ELISA tests for antibodies to Covid-19 which take days or weeks to report. I suspect that rapid antibody testing will be here in May.

While we currently lack good methods of tracking, it sounds like there are phone apps already on the horizon, and it will just take the judicial system's blessing to use them.

Finally, results from randomized controlled studies will give us accurate information on effective therapeutics to treat the people with the disease

There are many ways to open up the economy without necessarily employing an effective vaccine, if one is ever found. I course I hope that one is found. But we can move forward without it. It just might be a bit more complicated than before

I agree with you we cannot wait for a vaccine before air travel is resumed. Unfortunately i don't think we have the saliva test here in the UK yet or signs of an antibody test as they seem to be proving unreliable, but yes we seem to be testing the prototype here of the tracking app. Guess it will take a combination of everything and economies wanting to open up as they either rely on tourism or business travel is necessary.

Can you add a link to support this please?

Interesting news:Emirates, one of the world�s biggest long-haul carriers, says it has become the first airline to conduct on-site rapid Covid-19 blood tests for passengers.

People on its flight from Dubai International Airport to Tunisia on Wednesday were tested at a check-in area by Dubai Health Authority staff. The results were available within 10 minutes, Emirates said in a statement.

Testing for virus requires you to actually have enough in your system and already reproducing in your respiratory tract? If for example you just got it on travel and got it within a few hours ago in an airplane or airport or catching droplets from some bloke that is asymptomatic the test is meaningless.

Thus, check for fever and onsite test insure people already infected and asymptomatic or symptomatic are identified and quarantined. For those that recently exposed you'd need data to show how long once exposed can you test positive for asymptomatic spreaders, that will take many more months of studies as I highly doubt you'll find many clinical volunteers or situations to tease out the actual situation with the virus.

As you see in places like Taiwan that are forcing 14 day quarantine is the only way, or maybe 3-7 days with test, who knows. Makes it hard for both leisure and business travel.

Yet our prime minister literally said something else a few says ago. Our deputy prime minister comes from a completely different political party. I am sure there is dissent within the government right now over opening the borders in the future. Its really all just speculation and it is incredible contentious.

Jacinda once again reiterated that she and the government are in discussion with Singapore, and with Australia about how to expand our bubbles to open up travel amoungst the countries. So Winston Peters opinion that the New Zealand borders will be shut until a vaccine is just that, his opinion.

Interesting comment by Jacinda was that international border opening discussions happened FIRST with Singapore, and THEN Australia.

Until a Vaccine or miracle medication comes out (both doubtful for at least 18 months) I think the next steps we will see is one must obtain a medical certificate stating one is negative from the virus before one is allowed to board the plane or enter a country...

That may have been because Singapore used to be doing quite well, now, not so much but they do highlight the dangers of the second wave.

Starting to see a lot of chatter about a Aus-NZ travel bubble now, I don't think it will happen for ski season as some are hoping (nor do I think there will be a ski season as we know it) but I think by August or so we should be able to get something happening, maybe a bit earlier for business travel, bit later for tourism

This is a very interesting point and something I've been tracking for a while. I guess if you are going for elimination then 14 days might make sense, but elimination comes at a massive cost to the economy and social fabric and is probably not possible in all but a few locations. If you are going for containment and managing the disease in the context of other economic and social imperatives then a shorter quarantine would make much more sense IMHO.

I base this view on information contained here (https://www.worldometers.info/corona...bation-period/) in short, two studies showed the median incubation period as being 4 days (in one study) and 5.2 days (in another). This is a median and there are obviously outliers on both sides. Let's call it a 4 day median. This is supported by Australia's own experience where a lockdown was announced on Sunday and the first fall in figures was observed on the Thursday (4 days later).

So I'm suggesting a 7 day quarantine maybe the most practical in a containment strategy balancing medical, social and economic factors. Enforce it at home backed by random police checks, an app and harsh penalties and some form of test at the end might be a useful gateway to "freedom".

This is actually a manageable approach that may allow a limited reintroduction to tourism, family reunions and commerce.

One number I haven't seen, and I would be very interested in knowing, is in all the quarantining that is happening through the world, what percentage has exited without symptoms vs those that have developed symptoms during the quarantine period.