Can you expand they are back to normal?

We have areas where it has killed more than 1% of the total population. 1% of 330 million = 3.3 million. While the areas that have had the highest death toll was older it wasn't that much older. We also see it's several times as deadly when the healthcare system crashes--10 million deaths in the US is a high estimate but not insane.

If 1 in 1000 are contagious the risk of business as normal is very high.

Back to normal

Echoed by colleagues overthere who operate on usual schedule again; many are still cautious but overall places are getting busier with every day.. noticeable distinction is that masks are everywhere now...

Remember that due to the properties of this virus, we will either need an effective administered vaccine or acquired herd immunity to get back to any kind of "normal." It will be interesting to see what happens in China, Italy and Spain as they relax restrictions (although I have my suspicions on the "quality" of the data coming out of China.) The dangers of a second wave (as seen with the Spanish 'Fly about 100 years ago in certain areas) are very real.

After the first wave there is probably a set of restrictions that would keep the number of infections that need hospitalization just below the available capacity, and well managed, that would be a somewhat stable system until either herd immunity is reached, or an effective vaccine is developed. THEN we can get back to (the new) normal! If we try to rush this thing we'll be back here again in 3 to 6 months!

rb211.

Back to normal domestically, but in the context of this thread which is about travel, its not anywhere close to back to normal as all international arrivals are quarantined for 14 days. I think we�re going to see a lot of countries with near normal domestic arrangements but still with extensive restrictions on international travel.

It will be interesting to see how and when things resume for travel. But it's also going to be interesting to see if restrictions that we've been seeing will also be applied for other communicable diseases. India, for example, has a couple million TB infections a year and maybe 200,000-400,000 people die annually in India from TB. India has its own form of lock-downs in place currently for this novel coronavirus, but even with hundreds of thousands of annual TB deaths in India, travel to/from/within India continued even around 2016 when the annual deaths from TB were closer to a half-million people than to a quarter-million people. Maybe infection-related travel bans/restrictions will become more varied and common than was the case for most of us in 2019 and not be limited to just this coronavirus?

Should we give up our addiction to flying?

Quote:

If government intervenes and looks to buy a stake in airlines, this could be a turning point in transport policy, as the pandemic allows us to pivot to a lower air-travel future. We are already being forced to rethink how we move around, conduct business, keep up family ties and maintain friendships in a globalised world without aviation – a dire necessity, given the urgency of the climate emergency.

Regardless of our voluntary actions to not fly when we may fly again, I think air travel will not be back to “normal” again any time soon because:

1. the Covid-19 crisis will lead to economic hardship around the world so many people will have no - or less - money to spend on air travel in the coming years;

2. International travel will be one of the last economic sectors to open again and for some time “foreigners” and those who appear to be foreign may face discrimination;

3. Businesses and individuals will have learned from the Covid-19 period that there are cheaper and more efficient ways to do business and contact our friends and family;

4. There will be strong opposition to further globalisation of supply chains and some of the globalisation is likely to be reversed;

5. Some industries that require lots of air travel (such as cruising) may never again be as big as in 2019.

6. As the article says governments may indeed “use” this crisis to increase taxation on air travel and find other ways to discourage air travel.

#3 is just completely disconnected from reality when it comes to family. Last night I did a Zoom Passover Seder and it wasn't anywhere nearly the same connection as being with my family. People will always want to actually see their families when possible and if we make air travel too expensive then you're only hurting those lower on the socioeconomic ladder as they won't be able to go home even for their once a year trip. Meanwhile, folks with means will just eat the cost or the really rich will use private jets. As far as business goes I do agree I think business travel will change.

... and those Nations (small and large) with high dependancy on Tourism will sink into oblivion?

Small Island nations in the Caribbean and Indian Ocean will, I could suggest, be enthusiastic about the return of the affluent tourists.

That makes sense given that outside China the pandemic is in full swing. However once those numbers drop (and models suggest for US and EU we will see no more deaths by may-june) there will be a strong case for removing quarantines and reopening borders between countries as long as they trust each others data. IMHO summer will be a good time to travel domestically and to places with lifted restrictions - safe based on data and yet without typical crowds (both due to fears and economic impact)...

Businesses are going to continue to travel and so will people. After years of Europeans heading out on their 4-5 week summer vacations overseas, they are not going to suddenly give up on it and stay cooped up in their own homes. There are also millions of people who travel home annually after working in the gulf region. They will continue to do so.

How long will it take before they come up with a "TSA" like stupidity to make it all "safe" to travel is going to be the big question?

It may be more complicated than that. The weekly deaths in Stockholm will perhaps be on the decline around May-June, but southern Sweden is more likely to have them be higher in May-June than in March/March-April. So while Denmark may ease up on some restrictions they may still not want many travelers coming in from some, most or all of Sweden.

Let's not be too hasty. CNN is reporting that China has closed down a city (unnamed) in the northeast, saying that it's been experiencing some COVID-19 cases from Russia.

Exactly. And Wuhan is far, very far from �back to normal�.

Assuming that there was no lockdown in your country, BUT assuming that at your destination there was going to be a mandatory 14 day quarantine (a real one - no restaurants, no friends, no walks outside), would you:

1. Take a leisure trip.
2. Expect to be approved for a business trip.