GUWonder

I don’t expect things to go back to normally any time this year even if flight availability improves tremendously by October.

With a 5-10% hit to GDP in a substantial set of countries, there is no quick and easy way to get back to normal .... especially when the gunpowder of monetary and fiscal stimulus will have been expended heavily already this spring.

I am betting it will be balkanized recoveries, but uncertainty is going to be strong probably even into late 2020/early 2021. And the lack of global coordination on so many levels is going to make for a messier recovery than if things had been done differently in and from January.

Bear96

Of course they are. The question is whether relaxing lockdowns prematurely will lead to an even worse situation when infections / deaths spike back up again as a result.

Owenc

I have a feeling America will be the last to lift restrictions.

Owenc

I doubt most would test positive. Maybe in large urban areas.

Owenc

I agree to ban travel until September is ridiculous. It’s only early April, we have to wait and see how the various Lockdowns effect the penetration rate.

MSPeconomist

Surely in some of these action areas that are trying to keep out the nonlocals, there are not only the homes owned as investment properties to be rented out, but also a lot of second home and timeshare owners. The latter groups can hardly be kept out since they're local property owners too.

In MN some of the rural areas have been trying to discourage urban dwellers from coming to their second homes/cabins and also saying that if you're coming, please bring your own groceries and other necessities so as to avoid stressing the supply chain in local stores. It seems like a mixed message to beg "vacationers" not to spend money in the local economy.

MSPeconomist

I have a problem with requiring testing unless the test results can and will be used to guide treatment or otherwise benefit the patient. IMO it's OK to test when someone is being admitted to the hospital so that one knows whether PPE is required and whether the person should be put into a ward with other COVID-19 cases, but for mild symptoms, the best medical advice is simply to self quarantine and perhaps take some OTC medicines to relieve symptoms.

Testing everyone, whether for asymptomatic infection or acquired immunity, is the equivalent of asking everyone to be a human subject with no Institutional Review Board approval procedures, no informed consent, and no possible compensation.

Similarly, those here who are suggesting that all airline passengers (and crew, I would hope) be tested should ask themselves whether they would want TSA or most countries' low-level airport employees to perform somewhat invasive and unpleasant medical procedures, including drawing blood from a huge number of healthy-appearing individuals. For instance, think how difficult it is to get a TSA employee to put on clean gloves before doing a pat-down search or touching and digging through carry on items that will later be handled or worn by the passenger.

GadgetFreak

Exactly. There is a lead vaccine candidate it said. I really hope it works. Probably the vast majority don’t. Then there is the assumption that having it leads to immunity. That’s more likely but immunity for how long. Then there is the next coronavirus. There is one. There were two before that were intercepted, SARS and MERS, that were deadlier but easier to stop. But what about the next one? I think the world next year will be very different than the world last year. Travel may well be part of that difference.

A318neo

I disagree in part because by September, there will still be people dying. Restrictions are like gas station prices. With gas prices, they shoot up when the price of oil goes up but are slower to drop when the price of oil drops.

chipmaster

The thing with dying will be the rate of new cases and new deaths. US and most of the Western world has implemented social distancing and other items. Assuming this we can turn the curve as many hope in 4 weeks and peak # of deaths ( can't believe we say it like that ).

I suspect the Southern Hemisphere will be moving into fall/winter and we should assume Brazil and Africa will become the exploding case. Hard to believe we won't implement very restrictive motions and travel by country we managed each individually.

hopeful_me

Sorry, wrong thread.

HaleiwaFlyer

There is a difference between testing for treatment, and testing for epidemiological purposes.

On a philosophical and for debating purpose: As for testing the entire population, that will depend on the policy makers of the US if we ever come to that point for any communicable disease. Think, what if the Coronavirus was rather a hemorrhagic fever pathogen with a 3 week incubation period and a mortality rate between Coronavirus and less than Ebola? The entire world would be crippled for a very long time. We are quite lucky in that sense. The social distancing policy mandated by governors to close non-essential business in my opinion, is more intrusive to an individual than what the Coronavirus swab test will ever cause. The individual's benefit or harm is no longer considered when the greater good of society outweighs the individual's in situation like the current pandemic. Otherwise, mass mandates will never work. If people are willing to give up their paychecks for the greater good of the community during shut downs, then I doubt people would care much about personal health care privacy issues at hand for a coronavirus test that requires swabbing only, without a venous puncture.

As for going back on topic, I can see travelers having to show proof of negative Coronavirus testing before traveling or crossing borders. If domestically in the US, we are requiring a 14 day quarantine due to inter-state flying, how can we assume foreign countries wouldn't require even a more drastic disease free burden of proof before entering their countries? It will be interesting to see how opening borders will happen between all of the countries again. The US has the highest number of cases, and US travelers will probably have the highest restrictions before entering another country.

Travel will not be the same anymore until the profits come back for the airline industry. There won't be the same level of luxury soft products for a long time when airline companies are trying to financially survive. When people are losing jobs and wages, what matters in life will not be: the latest and greatest first class soft product, frequent flier miles, points, achieving the highest level of loyalty program, or the latest Instagram location. Unless you are on FlyerTalk. Drastic cuts to what we have been accustomed to will be the norm (ie. lounges, fast customer service....etc).

rockflyertalk

We have been told 7-14 days to isolate and a few country’s are isolating for longer periods.

So could you explain how this is different to what you describe? Apart from the incubation period you suggest. Are we not in a crisis when the world is entirely crippled right now? Again as you suggested. I ask as I’m very intrigued by people’s perspectives on this. It’s unprecedented and frankly chatting is good for everyone right now. Providing we are still isolating.

Owenc

Southern Hemisphere should be going into lockdown to prevent this.

HaleiwaFlyer

I agree, with the self quarantine, discussion and debate is always good for the health!

For any pathogen, there are two things to consider 1) how easy it is to pass to another person 2) How easily does it kill the host (how many days and the mortality rate).

Ebola passes through bodily fluids and can has a high and fast mortality rate, so even though its deadlier, its abit less easy to pass from one host to another due to the burn out rate ( the virus will limit itself due to how fast it kills it host). The host has less chance of spreading the virus/pathogen. Lets say there is a pathogen that can spread as easily as Coronavirus (bodily fluids and respiratory droplets), but has a 30% mortality rate that happens around 3-4 weeks after contracting the virus, this would be something the world hasn't seen yet. Lets imagine, the entire mucosal surface starts to leak blood because the virus attacks the capillary and vasculature. With a social media connected world, any images of a mass hemorrhagic fever like illness will cause mass panic. Unlike Coronavirus, the medical community who contracts hemorrhagic fever like illness won't be able to continue providing health care, which would cripple the health care system. Look at the personal protective gear required for a hemorrhagic fever versus Coronavirus. Totally different leagues of protection. The medical resources required to treat hemorrhagic fever will be a totally different ball game in itself. The fear that you have a 30% death rate will cause social instability (we still have essential services like grocery stores because the rate of death is low; can you imagine what happens if the mortality rate of Coronavirus jumped to 30%? who is going to be working at all?)

Another "what if scenario"....what if the disease is a prion with a mortality rate of near 100% within 2-5 years of contracting it? I would recommend researching about prions. When our spine surgeon colleagues operate on a positive Jakob Creutzfeldt patient, its a totally different ball game of disinfecting that operating room.