I don’t expect things to go back to normally any time this year even if flight availability improves tremendously by October.

With a 5-10% hit to GDP in a substantial set of countries, there is no quick and easy way to get back to normal .... especially when the gunpowder of monetary and fiscal stimulus will have been expended heavily already this spring.

I am betting it will be balkanized recoveries, but uncertainty is going to be strong probably even into late 2020/early 2021. And the lack of global coordination on so many levels is going to make for a messier recovery than if things had been done differently in and from January.