How do you see travel being able to resume - new measures?
Apr 2, 2020, 8:02 pm
#91
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 1,512
So in Australia all international arrivals are currently quarantined in hotels for 14 days, they cannot leave the room. Currently the government is paying for this but once things are under control here and until there is a vaccine/herd immunity I’d expect we’ll continue continue with this approach whereby all international arrivals will be quarantined, at their expense, until such time they can show they’re not a carrier. I doubt all countries will follow this sort of approach but being an island nation which has a history of fairly strict bio-security regulations I suspect we will.
and I have to say, I’m kinda surprised at the number of Americans in this thread who don’t seem to realise that they are the epicentre of the virus for the foreseeable future and most countries won’t be wanting anyone who has been through the US anywhere near their borders anytime soon.
and I have to say, I’m kinda surprised at the number of Americans in this thread who don’t seem to realise that they are the epicentre of the virus for the foreseeable future and most countries won’t be wanting anyone who has been through the US anywhere near their borders anytime soon.
Apr 2, 2020, 8:14 pm
#92
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: Northern Ireland
Posts: 722
Yup. Having watched US press Conference over the last few weeks, there has been a similar trend.
They are talking about us being a threat. Perhaps it’s the other way round in reality.
They are talking about us being a threat. Perhaps it’s the other way round in reality.
Apr 2, 2020, 8:34 pm
#93
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: DFW
Posts: 28,111
There is a difference between testing for treatment, and testing for epidemiological purposes.
On a philosophical and for debating purpose: As for testing the entire population, that will depend on the policy makers of the US if we ever come to that point for any communicable disease. Think, what if the Coronavirus was rather a hemorrhagic fever pathogen with a 3 week incubation period and a mortality rate between Coronavirus and less than Ebola? The entire world would be crippled for a very long time. We are quite lucky in that sense. The social distancing policy mandated by governors to close non-essential business in my opinion, is more intrusive to an individual than what the Coronavirus swab test will ever cause. The individual's benefit or harm is no longer considered when the greater good of society outweighs the individual's in situation like the current pandemic. Otherwise, mass mandates will never work. If people are willing to give up their paychecks for the greater good of the community during shut downs, then I doubt people would care much about personal health care privacy issues at hand for a coronavirus test that requires swabbing only, without a venous puncture.
As for going back on topic, I can see travelers having to show proof of negative Coronavirus testing before traveling or crossing borders. If domestically in the US, we are requiring a 14 day quarantine due to inter-state flying, how can we assume foreign countries wouldn't require even a more drastic disease free burden of proof before entering their countries? It will be interesting to see how opening borders will happen between all of the countries again. The US has the highest number of cases, and US travelers will probably have the highest restrictions before entering another country.
Travel will not be the same anymore until the profits come back for the airline industry. There won't be the same level of luxury soft products for a long time when airline companies are trying to financially survive. When people are losing jobs and wages, what matters in life will not be: the latest and greatest first class soft product, frequent flier miles, points, achieving the highest level of loyalty program, or the latest Instagram location. Unless you are on FlyerTalk. Drastic cuts to what we have been accustomed to will be the norm (ie. lounges, fast customer service....etc).
On a philosophical and for debating purpose: As for testing the entire population, that will depend on the policy makers of the US if we ever come to that point for any communicable disease. Think, what if the Coronavirus was rather a hemorrhagic fever pathogen with a 3 week incubation period and a mortality rate between Coronavirus and less than Ebola? The entire world would be crippled for a very long time. We are quite lucky in that sense. The social distancing policy mandated by governors to close non-essential business in my opinion, is more intrusive to an individual than what the Coronavirus swab test will ever cause. The individual's benefit or harm is no longer considered when the greater good of society outweighs the individual's in situation like the current pandemic. Otherwise, mass mandates will never work. If people are willing to give up their paychecks for the greater good of the community during shut downs, then I doubt people would care much about personal health care privacy issues at hand for a coronavirus test that requires swabbing only, without a venous puncture.
As for going back on topic, I can see travelers having to show proof of negative Coronavirus testing before traveling or crossing borders. If domestically in the US, we are requiring a 14 day quarantine due to inter-state flying, how can we assume foreign countries wouldn't require even a more drastic disease free burden of proof before entering their countries? It will be interesting to see how opening borders will happen between all of the countries again. The US has the highest number of cases, and US travelers will probably have the highest restrictions before entering another country.
Travel will not be the same anymore until the profits come back for the airline industry. There won't be the same level of luxury soft products for a long time when airline companies are trying to financially survive. When people are losing jobs and wages, what matters in life will not be: the latest and greatest first class soft product, frequent flier miles, points, achieving the highest level of loyalty program, or the latest Instagram location. Unless you are on FlyerTalk. Drastic cuts to what we have been accustomed to will be the norm (ie. lounges, fast customer service....etc).
Apr 2, 2020, 10:53 pm
#94
Join Date: Jan 2014
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I think it will vary a lot on a case-by-case basis. My guess, FWIW, is that outside of certain common travel zones (e.g. Schengen and the CTA) or areas with frequent cross-border travel (Canada/US and US/Mexico) you're going to see at least something that looks suspiciously like a suspension of visa-free travel for a bit. I'd probably combine this with a regime of tests (alongside a reduced/circumstantial quarantine) for business travel (since there are times that physical presence cannot be avoided...the best example I can give is site walk-through for an event; pacing out floorspace is something that a VR tour just won't cut it for; some court proceedings can get tricky in this respect as well...or at least, could until recently).
When things open back up? Who knows? I suspect the airline industry is going to go through some nasty disruptions (partly owing to a loss of business...my spitballed guess is that for a year or so after the initial burn-through and pending herd immunity/a widely-administered and widely-effective vaccine, domestic air travel will be off at least 25% and intercontinental/long-haul international travel will be off over 50%) and there's a good chance this kills of the super-cheap airline circumstances we've known for the last few decades. The hit here is just too darned big to "fix" with discounts, and at some point lower load factors will force some combination of service cuts (I see some smaller airports either losing service, losing nonstop service to hubs, or losing one or more airlines) and higher fares to reach equilibrium. As a particular example, Dulles is probably in financial trouble (it wasn't in great shape a few years ago, but there was hope that the metro getting extended there would help). Oakland and some of the smaller LA airports are probably going to take this on the chin as well. And so on.
An optimistic scenario would be that airlines go and pull a few rows of seats out or expand their F/J cabins to compensate for having too much fleet and a lot of markets where a larger 737 or A32X is "too much plane" and they don't have the right fleet mix to go smaller (for whatever reason, including but not limited to being saddled with lots of planes that are surplus to requirements or situations where a smaller plane can't run the route...think some of the longer TATL/TPAC routes where you can't exactly put a regional jet into the mix). A pessimistic scenario would involve mostly the current cabins (I think Y is often reaching close to as far down as it can go) and worse games with baggage fees and the like. A moderate scenario might involve re-expanding the F cabin and seriously pushing W (effectively going to a full three-cabin setup where Y is pretty crappy, W is decent, and F is solid so pax are "pushed" to W).
And of course, I haven't mentioned the chance that the government has to step in and partially re-regulate things to avoid one or more majors going under. AA has big problems as I understand it, while DL has an unlucky debt balloon coming up. I can't say that much about UA, and WN looks like it is in good shape (AS's picture is perhaps more complicated because of issues stemming from the VX merger).
When things open back up? Who knows? I suspect the airline industry is going to go through some nasty disruptions (partly owing to a loss of business...my spitballed guess is that for a year or so after the initial burn-through and pending herd immunity/a widely-administered and widely-effective vaccine, domestic air travel will be off at least 25% and intercontinental/long-haul international travel will be off over 50%) and there's a good chance this kills of the super-cheap airline circumstances we've known for the last few decades. The hit here is just too darned big to "fix" with discounts, and at some point lower load factors will force some combination of service cuts (I see some smaller airports either losing service, losing nonstop service to hubs, or losing one or more airlines) and higher fares to reach equilibrium. As a particular example, Dulles is probably in financial trouble (it wasn't in great shape a few years ago, but there was hope that the metro getting extended there would help). Oakland and some of the smaller LA airports are probably going to take this on the chin as well. And so on.
An optimistic scenario would be that airlines go and pull a few rows of seats out or expand their F/J cabins to compensate for having too much fleet and a lot of markets where a larger 737 or A32X is "too much plane" and they don't have the right fleet mix to go smaller (for whatever reason, including but not limited to being saddled with lots of planes that are surplus to requirements or situations where a smaller plane can't run the route...think some of the longer TATL/TPAC routes where you can't exactly put a regional jet into the mix). A pessimistic scenario would involve mostly the current cabins (I think Y is often reaching close to as far down as it can go) and worse games with baggage fees and the like. A moderate scenario might involve re-expanding the F cabin and seriously pushing W (effectively going to a full three-cabin setup where Y is pretty crappy, W is decent, and F is solid so pax are "pushed" to W).
And of course, I haven't mentioned the chance that the government has to step in and partially re-regulate things to avoid one or more majors going under. AA has big problems as I understand it, while DL has an unlucky debt balloon coming up. I can't say that much about UA, and WN looks like it is in good shape (AS's picture is perhaps more complicated because of issues stemming from the VX merger).
Apr 3, 2020, 12:09 am
#95
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Oct 1999
Posts: 11,468
I am feeling slightly depressed about how all this might play out after reading this article.
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/uk-c...long-term-plan
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/uk-c...long-term-plan
Apr 3, 2020, 12:56 am
#97
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 2,553
So in Australia all international arrivals are currently quarantined in hotels for 14 days, they cannot leave the room. Currently the government is paying for this but once things are under control here and until there is a vaccine/herd immunity I’d expect we’ll continue continue with this approach whereby all international arrivals will be quarantined, at their expense, until such time they can show they’re not a carrier. I doubt all countries will follow this sort of approach but being an island nation which has a history of fairly strict bio-security regulations I suspect we will.
Apr 3, 2020, 3:35 am
#98
Original Poster
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 2,345
Exactly so it's not a viable option going forward. Yes an antibody certificate is ideal but what about say the 50-75% of the population that don't get it either the virus or access to a test? I think it will just be on a country by country basis e.g. they have had no new cases for 4 weeks.
Apr 3, 2020, 4:16 am
#99
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: CGK
Programs: FlyingBlue | Krisflyer | SPG | HHonors
Posts: 1,563
Exactly so it's not a viable option going forward. Yes an antibody certificate is ideal but what about say the 50-75% of the population that don't get it either the virus or access to a test? I think it will just be on a country by country basis e.g. they have had no new cases for 4 weeks.
I am saying that because in the last few weeks, even South Korea has not been able to push new caseloads to zero. Probably they were actively seeking out cases and there are no lockdowns yet in Seoul. But compared to many other countries, South Korea is quite safe.
Apr 3, 2020, 4:17 am
#100
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: Northern Ireland
Posts: 722
So when will long haul travel open up? There is lots of pessimism but Americans airlines are starting up their routes from DUB in June.
I was trying to go to America in February, I should’ve just went then.
I was trying to go to America in February, I should’ve just went then.
Apr 3, 2020, 5:32 am
#101
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 2,553
This article from Australia suggests 'normal' life might not resume until late July (ie lockdown until then), with intl flights beginning "much" later than that.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-...X1CAFdm_ynBBss
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-...X1CAFdm_ynBBss
Apr 3, 2020, 5:45 am
#102
Join Date: May 2010
Location: AVP & PEK
Programs: UA 1K 1.9MM
Posts: 6,355
Air New Zealand is now a "domestic airline", and will likely be MUCH smaller in the future according to its CEO:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/martinr.../#26f461e6e36f
Amazing, considering they unveiled their Flat Bed in Economy Class just over a month ago!
https://samchui.com/2020/02/26/air-n...economy-class/
It will be things like THAT that won't happen going forward. Innovation like that happens when the industry is booming.
Expect lackluster EVERYTHING in airports and on planes when flying resumes.....oh, and an obligatory "COVID-19 Cleaning & Prevention Fee [CVCPF]" of U$32.00 added to every ticket purchased!
(only my guess, not fact-based)
https://www.forbes.com/sites/martinr.../#26f461e6e36f
Amazing, considering they unveiled their Flat Bed in Economy Class just over a month ago!
https://samchui.com/2020/02/26/air-n...economy-class/
It will be things like THAT that won't happen going forward. Innovation like that happens when the industry is booming.
Expect lackluster EVERYTHING in airports and on planes when flying resumes.....oh, and an obligatory "COVID-19 Cleaning & Prevention Fee [CVCPF]" of U$32.00 added to every ticket purchased!
(only my guess, not fact-based)
Apr 3, 2020, 6:29 am
#103
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 1,512
Yes, indeed. Better testing will reduce that timeframe but it’s either that or shutting down the economy every time travellers import new cases. Until there’s a vaccine/herd immunity countries who can isolate themselves will.
Apr 3, 2020, 6:59 am
#104
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Join Date: Aug 2002
Location: NY Metro Area
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I don’t see much travel starting in the foreseeable future. Especially business travel. Virtual meetings aren’t ideal but are getting better, at a time when travel is very restricted and is likely to say so for months or years. People will be very much used to working virtually by the time travel becomes possible.
Apr 3, 2020, 7:43 am
#105
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All these cheerful perspectives of “back to normal by <insert month>” slightly amuse me. EVERYTHING depends on the scenario at the destination airport, and that Nation’s Health assessments and acceptance of risk ... including their dependence on tourism and the robustness of their healthcare systems. Who would want to be the President/Prime Minister who makes the call to resume business as usual ... with a global, trasmissable disease for which there is yet no cure or vaccination?
I can’t (yet) contemplate getting to South Afrca in December.
I can’t (yet) contemplate getting to South Afrca in December.