acucobol

No, proof you have had it. Only those who can demonstrate they cannot be infected or pass infection on otherwise a liability to destination nation.

Swanhunter

There may be a relaxation for business and essential travel ahead of anything for leisure, notwithstanding the importance of tourism to the economies of many countries.

OverTheHorizon

Found on the mat this morning - my renewal GGL pack, complete with Golden Tickets and the ability to bestow Gold and Silver cards on the deserving...

​​​​​​I put it straight in a drawer: for now, it is formally useless.

And yes, my eyes were moist for a moment or two

Arsey00

Domestic travel will likely resume before international just because once we've passed the peak we'll be able to ease and tighten restrictions at will based on NHS capacity. But the fact that the rest of the world will have their peaks at different times and may or may not lift their own restrictions means it'll be a lot harder to get back to normal levels of international travel until either a vaccine is developed, a reasonable level of herd immunity is reached, or it mutates away from lethality. Intraeuropean travel will probably come next, but even that will have to wait until the virus as moved through the bulk of the national populations. I suppose bilateral arrangements can be made between countries whose populations have sufficiently battled it, but that's still going to need micromanagement because the connection networks will still be disrupted. If I were an airline, I'd probably be looking at how I could invest in a vaccine study.

Super Mario

I don't see international travel happening anytime soon. I could see domestic with restrictions. I could live with that for the time being.

paulaf

I think there is sufficient funding now for the vaccine, we just need a time machine to speed up the development and testing and trials. An antibody certificate would work for those that have had it but the vast majority haven't so I can't see that working. Undoubtedly countries that rely heavily on tourism will put pressure on when the time is right to ease travel restrictions for example we are supposed to be going to Cyprus in September and no way can they survive without tourism until next Easter, when next years season starts, also October onwards is the start of the high season for the Canary Islands who will have by then lost 7-8 months of trade.

GetSetJetSet

assuming this antibody test rolls out this month and it's proven that recovering gives you immunity, would there be some sort of exception for people who are immune?

stan1162

I too, see an antibody test certificate, just like a Yellow Fever card as where we are potentially headed. Also, wouldn't this give us much more/better data to find out how widespread the virus actually is? Considering testing is still difficult to get.

LondonElite

I think we should be realistic about how fast a vaccine can be developed and tested. Read this:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...months-show-me

Some excerpts:

paulaf

Danger of that is it might encourage coronavirus parties like for kids and chicken pox! Yes I read all about the vaccine timescales hence my original question, life will have to resume in a manner of fashion before it is ready.

PV_Premier

Even though I found a very cost effective flight I in theory "need" for October, given a hotel reservation I have in place, I didn't buy it, because I am not convinced things will be totally normal by then and would rather be out a few extra $/miles than on the hook even for a non-refundable $250 ticket at this point.

I have a vacation to Chile in late November that I am hoping to be able to take, which is already ticketed and hotel booked (refundable on the latter).

If the US government gets serious about the problem and does more than drop money out of a helicopter, then I suspect we could see a relatively steep back side of the curve as well, thus bringing domestic travel back fairly quickly.

What is underappreciated at this point is the overall impact on earnings and thus non-discretionary spending (travel) that will occur. The unemployment numbers last week were brutal and the total for March/April will be horrendous.

For those who are keeping jobs, some/many are experiencing massive pay haircuts...even my girlfriend, in a squarely low 6 figures white collar job at a small local firm, was yesterday asked to take a 15% pay cut and forego her bonus, as well as pay her own health care, for the foreseeable future. I have a corporate job so I am insulated on the salary/benefits side, but I expect no 2020 bonus whatsoever and our relative % contribution to benefits out of pocket will definitely go up again next year.

Thus, while the freedom to travel may come back, for many the means to do so will have evaporated.

stan1162

My own experience tells me its much more widespread. I felt terrible March 5-7. I mean really, really sick. I've had Pulmonary Embolisms, so I know what shortness of breath is. Headache, fever, terrible aches, exhausted, dry cough. There was no real testing here at all then. Even if I wanted to get tested, the 2 questions I would have had to answer YES to, were, 1. Did you travel out of the country, and 2. Have you been in contact with anyone testing positive... Seriously, how could # 2 have happened if no testing going on. DH, a couple mild symptoms. THEN, on March 8, the first 2 in my county tested positive. ( I think after having returned from New Orleans). It's been floating around here for quite awhile. And son in DTW, was sick Feb 28-March 2. Fever, exhaustion, sore throat. Went all around his place. Daughter and Son-in-law have both had symptoms, loss of smell/taste, shortness of breath, headache, fever. Son-in-law thinks it goes back to Atlanta Hawks game.They are in a different city in Tennessee. So, of my 5 immediate family members, I suspect ALL of us infected. We've all contacted the county health departments. Even if we wanted testing, what would it show? We would probably test negative.

So, my point is I think most would test positive for the antibody. And it would be actually harder to find someone with Active/Positive to invite to the party, if we've been more infected than we realize.

1P

On the contrary, far more people have had it without knowing it than can be currently tested. Alongside developing a vaccine, governments should be working on supplying every household with self-testing kits.

I am pretty sure that I have had it, and could therefore work as a volunteer, but there is no way that I can be tested since all testing is reserved for those with symptoms, health care workers, and members of government.

LondonElite

I agree with you but the problem is that the at-home kits are in very short supply.

BearX220

I think the summer is shot, for international longhaul anyway, given that different countries are riding different curves at wildly varying rates.