sdsearch

The first thing to understand is that many people now say the whole concept of AOR is now dead.

AOR was based on the fact that if you applied for card X at 12:05 pm and card Y at 12:32 pm and card Z at 1:07 pm, card Z would not see the pull for card X or card Y. That's because pulls tended to take about day years ago when AORs were popularized.

But nowadays pulls tend to be instaneous, so there is no big advantage to applying one hour later compared to one day later compared to one week later (for cards at different banks). And thus the whole concept of AOR evaporates.

What you have to understand is that blogger write blogs, and then they don't take those blogs down necessarily after the info is "stale". They make money from links in the blongs, and as long the update the links, they may not pay attention to "is the content of this blog still valid". So old blogs with stale info abound, whether you're browsing at a particular blogs site, or searching for something on the web and coming with blog pages as a result.

So you'll find a lot blogs out there instructing you how to get started with an AOR, which either have no date or you didn't check the date, and their recommendations, even if they may have made sense at one point, no longer make sense.

sdsearch

Since there is not a scientific definition of "often" that I have ever heard of, that statement is simply warning of a possibility, nothing more. It was based I presume on a noticed trend, that's all. It is far from a statement of absolute irrefutable consistent fact.

Thus it cannot be "wrong" unless a lot of datapoints prove that exactly the opposite happens every time. A single anecdote, or even a small series of anecdotes, cannot disprove a statement that includes the hedge word "often".

(But it cannot be proven "right" either, if there is "often" is "fuzzy math".)

beltway

Congrats. You made a wise decision based on the group's collective experience & were rewarded for it.

RNE

Earth to beltway. He did not get the card he wanted: CSP. But you're right, that result is due to the group's collective hysteria. Some reward.

benosufan

Wife was approved for CSP...had 5 new CC's opened in last 11 months....2 were Chase (Southwest and Disney rewards) only spent min spend on those. Instant approval for CSP. She also recently had received pre-qualification letter in the mail. I have as well..I'm waiting a month bc I need to spend on my BCA+ to reimburse a final travel expense....then I'm getting CSP before moving on to other CC's.

RNE

Allow me to quote: "Congrats. You made a wise decision based on [ignoring] the group's collective experience & were rewarded for it."

knowledgeispower

5 new cards in past 11 months isn't ignoring the advice it is in line with it

sdsearch

It is if no more cards applied in the preceding 13 months. That person's report was missing all sorts of info, like the total count in the past 24 months, whether any of those cards were business cards or charge cards (which may not show on "mainstream" credit reports), etc.

Datapoints without enough data cannot prove or disprove a theorized pattern.

Also, at many banks, having a pre-qualified offer bypasses some of the "rules" that the bank imposes on "from scratch" applications. So it could be that if you happen to have a pre-qualified offer from Chase, various Chase things that might apply otherwise might not apply in that case.

Brugge

What's wrong with this picture?

The crucial piece of information is hidden in the middle.

There is NO group collective experience, AFAIK, that says if you get a targeted offer in the mail, that you will be denied when you apply. This is a very specific situation, and does not in any way apply to those of us who have not received a targeted offer.

benosufan

All were personal credit card accounts. I don't think she had any other credit accounts opened in the preceding 12 months. It could have just been she was within the parameters for instant approval. Or maybe the prequal had something to do with it. Sorry that it will not help anyone here...but I'm sure glad she got this card now...plan on getting the Freedom to get 5% bonus URPs and txr to CSP. Got to make good use of the first year no annual fee.

RNE

Or maybe there is no 5/24 rule at all.

Nobody knows for sure, of course, but that uncertainty is conveniently overlooked in the frenzy to coronate "The Rule." Woe to those who do not sing its praises.

RNE, congratulating your missus for her success.

sdsearch

No, the 5/24 rule as speculated in the wiki is "more than 5 credit cards". Not 5, more than 5.

So since this person had exactly 5 in the past 24 months, even if it was no prequal there is no reason (for those who "believe" the 5/24 rule) to expect this person to have been denied.

You ask everyone else to keep their facts straight, but when someone presents facts that are not in contradiction to the theorized "rule", you conveniently ignore those facts and trumpet that the rule may have been disproved. Huh?

Whether the "rule" exists or not has nothing to with this particular anecdote. Please wait for anecdote which clearly is in contraction to the theorized 5/24 rule before labeling that anecdote as a counter-example to the theorized rule.

RNE

I don't follow you. I'm clicking on the links throughout your post and none of them are working. What do you mean?

isle-hawg

Exactly - which is why this is my favorite site on the web that has helped me highly subsidize so many excellent vacations!

I give you credit for providing comic relief with your eccentric posts throughout this thread.

duranza

I just found a 50k offer for the United Explorer on my husband's UA account.
Seems to be a targeted offer, only problem is with 9 HP over the last 24 mos across all banks I don't think he has a good chance to get the card ( again) right now.
He has 5 Chase cards but very low CL overall ( dropped most after acquiring them)