CX635/636 has a pretty low load factor, sometimes with even less than 100 people. It makes sense to switch to the A321 given that Business travellers (not necessarily seatinv in J class) are more time sensitive and keeping the frequency may improve competitiveness, rather than axing the service altogether.

Fair point, I'm guilty myself above (I totally forgot what this thread was even about). We could use a mod or two!

Should at least a 28J A330, with free seats open up for redemption

Some good news other than the farce of A32Q: Boeing CEO believed that B777-9 would get certified by the end of 2025 or early 2026. Hopefully that will ease the shortage of aircraft with long-haul J in CX.

https://leehamnews.com/2025/02/20/or...rs-conference/

While CX does need 777-9 to re-open F routes and free up 77W for refurbishment, it feels to me CX needs A359 more urgently to open up long thin routes. I’m not sure how many A359 routes can be replaced by A339, so let’s see what the next order is. Hopefully it’ll be announced on March 12.

Still the arrival of B779 will free up some A359. B779 would replace B77W/A35K on some pre-covid F routes such as CDG/LAX/JFK/BOS/ORD, and these aircraft will replace A359 on some well performing routes such as MAD/MAN/SFO/AMS etc.

By the way any new widebody order may not materialize until 2030s. Airbus further delayed the ramp up of A350 production these days. The production rate would stay the same in 2025 compared to 2024, and A350F EIS would slip into 2027 H2.

Basically if CX wants to bigger than 2019 in 2030.
it needs to order at minimum 20 more long haul 777 9s.

Else expect shrinkage and more narrow bodies relative to 2019.

Its an interesting strategy considering most competitors are starting to eclipse pre covid capacity.

I know that this is a repeated question of mine from a while ago, but when CX increases frequency to a long-haul destination, how far in advance would they announce it? I am wondering that because I am very curious to find out if CX will restart their second daily AKL flight during NZ summer. There is definitely a ton of demand for connections to within Asia (India, Sri Lanka, Japan, South Korea etc.) from AKL, which is not possible at the moment with the current flight timing from AKL. CX used to have a second daily service in NZ summer to cater to Asian connections, and it seems like a no-brainer to bring it back. SQ is able to come to AKL 3x daily in summer, and even 2x daily to CHC on top of that, so demand really won't be an issue. Has anyone heard any whispers about this possibly returning?

On another note, so far, it seems to me that CX is downsizing NZ ops by a bit this NS25 by putting the 359 on the AKL route, instead of the usual 35K. The A35Ks are all being sent to NA and Europe, when they could also be used to go to SYD, AKL, PER, and other long-haul destinations like MAD and ZRH too. It has been clear for a long while now that CX has a glaring shortage of A35Ks, and I think that instead of just ordering more A359s, A35Ks are arguably more important for CX to order more of. A mix of 359s and 35Ks would probably be ideal.

I wonder whether there is such a demand, at least for now. First, there is a Air NZ daily (or recently reduced due to aircraft shortage?) which has JV with CX. Second, NZ is probably more recreational to HK than Biz which may not support higher yields (as compared to other routes). Third, for the comparison with SQ, SG is so much closer to NZ and Southeast Asia destinations are popular destinations for vacations (which is in a much better position to support NZ such transit traffic than HK), compared to Northeast Asia destinations (which is farther and more expensive). It is pretty telling that Air NZ said AKL-ICN has a relatively low loadfactor chooses to cut the ICN route altogether amid the aircraft shortage. Transit at HK for India is also a detour compared to SG.

The current CX flight is perfectly timed for Europe connections (with CX and LH group), which is optimal. It is pretty telling why CX decides to do seasonal CHC rather than 2 daily AKL.

I would expect the same with compensation credits + options. Wonder whether CX will use A35K or 779 regional config as replacement for the 773s.

Pretty sure neither - A339 and A321 for regional expansion, and just forgo the extra seats. Can always reduce demand for the peak/ slot constrained flights by increasing price/ less connecting traffic.

I think that a large part of the pax on a flight timed for Intra-Asia connections would be immigrants into NZ returning home to visit family, rather than people vacationing. Most immigrants into NZ come from India, China, the Philippines, and smaller numbers come from South Korea, Thailand, and Sri Lanka, among other countries. When considering that pricing is usually the main factor for many of the aforementioned passengers, CX would gain a lot of business from these pax as they are usually cheaper than the competition (SQ, MH, and even Air NZ). I personally know a lot of people who would have booked CX when they saw prices, but opted for SQ since there was no need for an overnight stay when connecting intra-Asia. I am convinced that there is more than sufficient demand for a second daily flight during the NW season (NZ summer) because that is the main holiday season for NZ residents, and that is when schools have 2 month summer holidays.

With regards to your comment about a low Air NZ load factor to ICN, I think that Korean pax, or vacationers to Korea would not make up a large percentage of the pax on the second daily service anyways, plus, now that NZ is indefinitely cancelling their ICN service, those pax would probably choose to fly with CX over KE (when considering their often shocking pricing).
In terms of distance and flight lengths, flying to SG is only an hour shorter than flying to HK directly from NZ, which isn't much of a difference at all, and when considering that the pax I think would fly on the second daily service would fly mainly to India, the Philippines, and China, Cathay would be a more convenient option with a shorter or comparable flight time anyways.

Of course, during NS, AKL only needs 1 service a day which caters to European connections like you said, but during the NW season, it would most likely be a good idea to use the aircraft freed from a seasonal European service (e.g. BCN, FCO) to have a second daily AKL service. Of course, CX clearly thought it made more sense to fly out of CX rather than a 2nd daily to AKL like you said, however, I think there would still be enough demand for the 2nd daily to AKL on top of that.

Oh well, at the end of the day CX management almost certainly knows better than me, and they will make the decision they think will deliver the most profit, or most benefit to the company.

They may extend leases.
definitely agree with the second daily AKL flight.

I also regularly fly the route and hope CX reinstates the early morning departure, so much better for Asian connections and would weaken SQ significantly.
everyone avoids Air NZ....


Looks like Cathay almost matched SQs numbers for Jan 2025.
SQ group is still much bigger thanks to Scoot.
but with the significant expansion CX has planned over the next few months , 2025 could be the year CX finally recovers it's spot.

To be honest, I would rather fly CX for 20hrs with a stopover than anywhere direct with Air NZ. Air NZ are totally shambolic, the crew are half-good half-bad, the onboard hard product is rubbish and uncomfortable, the soft product in economy is also woeful, many of their aircraft feel old or dated, and they are terribly unreliable thanks to the 787 engine issues and their aircraft shortage, and given their prices compared to their competitors you would expect top-notch service. They are only surviving thanks to Kiwi passengers who fly them because of their old reputation, which is dying. CX has a big opportunity to pull loyal Air NZ pax away with their superior prices, and keep them there thanks to their superior product. I have met a few people this year who have switched from Air NZ to CX for the reasons I mentioned, and upping services (especially during summer in NZ), increasing supply, and thereby reducing their prices would really serve them very well and help boost CX demand from NZ. The only reason this might not happen is because of their JV with Air NZ.

CX328 now loaded mondays and thursdays.