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Rumor, Speculation: AAdvantage Program Devaluation 31 Jul 2019

Rumor, Speculation: AAdvantage Program Devaluation 31 Jul 2019

Old May 31, 2019, 5:38 am
  #31  
 
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Originally Posted by GetSetJetSet
If I can still book CX/JL F at the same rate with miles.
This is my concern as well.
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Old May 31, 2019, 5:40 am
  #32  
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I read something yesterday about changes to upgrades and not something favorable. Along with changes in SWU use I could see AA restricting fares that are eligible for upgrades and/or copays. It's where the US3 are headed and I guess someone has to be first.
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Old May 31, 2019, 5:53 am
  #33  
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Originally Posted by newyorkgeorge
I read something yesterday about changes to upgrades and not something favorable. Along with changes in SWU use I could see AA restricting fares that are eligible for upgrades and/or copays. It's where the US3 are headed and I guess someone has to be first.
No foundation at this juncture
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Old May 31, 2019, 5:58 am
  #34  
 
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Originally Posted by newyorkgeorge
I read something yesterday about changes to upgrades and not something favorable. Along with changes in SWU use I could see AA restricting fares that are eligible for upgrades and/or copays. It's where the US3 are headed and I guess someone has to be first.
If the rumor becomes fact, seems that benefits of airline loyalty becomes a non issue. I average eight flights per week, 40 weeks per year. With densification, it is already becoming unnecessarily stressful just to board a flight. Take away real/ tangible incentives to be loyal to one airline- not much reason to stay loyal to one program. I doubt it matters much in Chairman Parker's business model... He states he leads the "worlds largest airline", and with barriers to entry for startup airlines, he does not really need to provide tangible incentives for domestic flying road warriors...... He has my business either way.... as I have limited options to switch carriers.
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Old May 31, 2019, 6:22 am
  #35  
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The current rumor that started this thread-- which is highly credible (albeit far from "filled in" at this time) as it came from me-- has nothing to do with SWU's from what I've seen so far.
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Old May 31, 2019, 7:00 am
  #36  
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At some point there is going to be a monetization of the domestic F cabin by the US3. If not this year not too far down the road. There's too much pressure from Wall Street to ever increase revenues and there are already airlines that in fact have no complimentary upgrade system. You can't get Mint for free. I think such a move would only fail if one of the US3 didn't go along but let's face it none of them have bucked the trend.

As far as "loyalty." I remember when the idea of status based upon dollar spend not just miles flown by the US3 was being discussed. Some of the newer airlines like VX at the time had already adopted that model. So many on FT said it would kill "loyalty" if the airlines went ahead. Well they did and loyalty stayed. If complimentary domestic upgrades went away FF loyalty would remain. Some of it forced due to hub dominance, some of it just because FF elite programs will still provide a level of benefits-free checked bags, free MCE (for certain levels), priority check in, better handling in irregular ops, etc.
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Old May 31, 2019, 7:18 am
  #37  
 
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I can book my honeymoon trip in Late August. I just hope partner awards don't change by then. UA has their dynamic pricing going into effect November 15th (I believe). At least for now, partner awards aren't changing.
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Old May 31, 2019, 8:12 am
  #38  
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Originally Posted by JonNYC
The current rumor that started this thread-- which is highly credible (albeit far from "filled in" at this time) as it came from me-- has nothing to do with SWU's from what I've seen so far.
Seems like the possibilities for mileage upgrades would include:
- Single cabin (Y --> PE, PE --> J)
- Multi cabin (Y --> PE introduced; Y --> J still allowed, may or may not require higher mileage amount)

Given your comments that one reading of this could merely be introduction of PE upgrade awards, my speculation would be that the uncertainty is between these two options... Y --> PE upgrade awards are getting introduced, but it's unknown whether Y --> J will survive.

I suppose it's possible AA would be looking to follow DL down the path of abandoning the upgrade charts and pricing upgrades as the difference between the case fares at a rate of 1 mile/$0.01.

Possibly the end of complimentary Y --> PE for EXP/CK as well?

My worst fear is that they'd start to treat MCE as a separate cabin like DL does with Comfort+, and treat them as capacity-controlled upgrades just like they do with First Class. I know we have seen some shuffling of fare classes already come September, but I hope this is not also part of the "Fare Class Realignment" they're talking about.
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Old May 31, 2019, 8:14 am
  #39  
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Originally Posted by newyorkgeorge
At some point there is going to be a monetization of the domestic F cabin by the US3. If not this year not too far down the road. There's too much pressure from Wall Street to ever increase revenues and there are already airlines that in fact have no complimentary upgrade system. You can't get Mint for free. I think such a move would only fail if one of the US3 didn't go along but let's face it none of them have bucked the trend.
Yes, Casey/Isom also talked about the first class up-sell, and recognizing that currently it takes a lot of work on behalf of the customer, and then you have to call into an agent (and he didn't mention that half the agents would try to charge a change fee, or that (I think) there's a fee for AA to take over a TA-issued ticket). They specifically see a $50m revenue opportunity.
DL said years ago that its goal was to sell 80% of domestic first class seats (though it didn't specify at what price...)

I don't know if there's any reason to take away complimentary upgrades altogether. Mint is somewhat of a different beast vs. regular domestic FC, and in fact DL did remove comp upgrades on its transcons when it introduced "DeltaOne" but reinstated them, albeit only on day of departure (and they're unicorns for all but top-tier or Saturday night flights). I guess they could always try again and see if AA/UA would follow...
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Old May 31, 2019, 8:23 am
  #40  
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Originally Posted by javabytes
Possibly the end of complimentary Y --> PE for EXP/CK as well?
Didn't know that was a published benefit.
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Old May 31, 2019, 8:23 am
  #41  
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Originally Posted by newyorkgeorge
It's where the US3 are headed and I guess someone has to be first.
That's Deltas job.
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Old May 31, 2019, 8:46 am
  #42  
 
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Originally Posted by javabytes
Up until a few years ago, Delta required VERY expensive fare classes to use the upgrade certificates... often more expensive than just buying discount J. So the carriers havent exactly been in lockstep here. I think AA would be fine offering single-cabin upgrades while Delta allowed Y> J.
A few years ago DL started allowing the use of Global Upgrade Certificates (GUC's....same as SWU) from virtually any fare class. But when that was implemented, DL also quietly changed the way that GUC's were processed. Previously, a GUC basically got you confirmed AT TIME OF BOOKING if there was a J seat available (and a spot on a waitlist on the rare occasions that a J seat wasn't available). Now, a GUC gets you onto a waitlist at time of booking. As travel date gets closer and DL has a handle on how many J seats will likely be unsold, DL starts releasing seats to thiose on the waitlist. It is pretty unheard of for GUC's to clear at time of booking anymore.

So in summary, GUC's went from heavily restricted but virtually guaranteed upgrades to a more widely accessible CHANCE of an upgrade into the leftover seats that DL hasn't sold. Each procedure s*cks, they just s*ck in different ways.
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Old May 31, 2019, 9:04 am
  #43  
 
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Originally Posted by ryan182
I don't think SWUs being Y->W or W->J is too likely, for starters I would point out that Delta has not done that as of yet so good chance no one at AA has even thought of it. Second, Delta hasn't done that yet.
Delta is just in the middle of premium economy implementation. They only have it on A350s and some 777.
With respect to PE, DL is behind AA so they are followers in this case.
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Old May 31, 2019, 9:12 am
  #44  
 
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Originally Posted by javabytes
My worst fear is that they'd start to treat MCE as a separate cabin like DL does with Comfort+, and treat them as capacity-controlled upgrades just like they do with First Class.
My DL flying colleagues are amazed that I can book directly into MCE for free, and that my upgrades put me in (domestic) F. They think that's as ridiculous as I do the DL system.

If/when AA was to implement this, the only value of PPro for me - where I actually get upgrades at a rate better than the 10% I was getting as a Plat - would be the no charge SDFC. I don't check bags and the mileage bonus doesn't matter to me given my (relatively) high EQD level with OPM.
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Old May 31, 2019, 9:32 am
  #45  
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Originally Posted by pa3lsvt
My DL flying colleagues are amazed that I can book directly into MCE for free,
The funny thing like MCE is anything extra....I sit in seats that already have extra leg room (bulkhead or exit row) and I guess if you are flying overseas you get a free drink or two but for me at least my work travels are all domestic travel so MCE is nothing more than a few inches of additional leg room.

The fact Delta treats this as an upgrade is laughable but ultimately sad as AA only follows DL's moves.
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