Rumor, Speculation: AAdvantage Program Devaluation 31 Jul 2019
#32
Suspended
Join Date: Sep 2006
Programs: AAdvantage PP
Posts: 13,913
I read something yesterday about changes to upgrades and not something favorable. Along with changes in SWU use I could see AA restricting fares that are eligible for upgrades and/or copays. It's where the US3 are headed and I guess someone has to be first.
#33
Suspended
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: FIND ME ON TWITTER FOR THE LATEST
Posts: 27,730
No foundation at this juncture
#34
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: SLC
Programs: AA EXP, Marriott Plat
Posts: 616
If the rumor becomes fact, seems that benefits of airline loyalty becomes a non issue. I average eight flights per week, 40 weeks per year. With densification, it is already becoming unnecessarily stressful just to board a flight. Take away real/ tangible incentives to be loyal to one airline- not much reason to stay loyal to one program. I doubt it matters much in Chairman Parker's business model... He states he leads the "worlds largest airline", and with barriers to entry for startup airlines, he does not really need to provide tangible incentives for domestic flying road warriors...... He has my business either way.... as I have limited options to switch carriers.
#35
Suspended
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: FIND ME ON TWITTER FOR THE LATEST
Posts: 27,730
The current rumor that started this thread-- which is highly credible (albeit far from "filled in" at this time) as it came from me-- has nothing to do with SWU's from what I've seen so far.
#36
Suspended
Join Date: Sep 2006
Programs: AAdvantage PP
Posts: 13,913
At some point there is going to be a monetization of the domestic F cabin by the US3. If not this year not too far down the road. There's too much pressure from Wall Street to ever increase revenues and there are already airlines that in fact have no complimentary upgrade system. You can't get Mint for free. I think such a move would only fail if one of the US3 didn't go along but let's face it none of them have bucked the trend.
As far as "loyalty." I remember when the idea of status based upon dollar spend not just miles flown by the US3 was being discussed. Some of the newer airlines like VX at the time had already adopted that model. So many on FT said it would kill "loyalty" if the airlines went ahead. Well they did and loyalty stayed. If complimentary domestic upgrades went away FF loyalty would remain. Some of it forced due to hub dominance, some of it just because FF elite programs will still provide a level of benefits-free checked bags, free MCE (for certain levels), priority check in, better handling in irregular ops, etc.
As far as "loyalty." I remember when the idea of status based upon dollar spend not just miles flown by the US3 was being discussed. Some of the newer airlines like VX at the time had already adopted that model. So many on FT said it would kill "loyalty" if the airlines went ahead. Well they did and loyalty stayed. If complimentary domestic upgrades went away FF loyalty would remain. Some of it forced due to hub dominance, some of it just because FF elite programs will still provide a level of benefits-free checked bags, free MCE (for certain levels), priority check in, better handling in irregular ops, etc.
#37
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: DTW/MBS
Programs: UA 1K, HHonors Diamond, Hyatt Globalist, Formerly Starbucks Gold
Posts: 3,524
I can book my honeymoon trip in Late August. I just hope partner awards don't change by then. UA has their dynamic pricing going into effect November 15th (I believe). At least for now, partner awards aren't changing.
#38
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Original Poster
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Bye Delta
Programs: AA EXP, HH Diamond, IHG Plat, Hyatt Plat, Marriott Plat, Nat'l Exec Elite, Avis Presidents Club
Posts: 16,247
- Single cabin (Y --> PE, PE --> J)
- Multi cabin (Y --> PE introduced; Y --> J still allowed, may or may not require higher mileage amount)
Given your comments that one reading of this could merely be introduction of PE upgrade awards, my speculation would be that the uncertainty is between these two options... Y --> PE upgrade awards are getting introduced, but it's unknown whether Y --> J will survive.
I suppose it's possible AA would be looking to follow DL down the path of abandoning the upgrade charts and pricing upgrades as the difference between the case fares at a rate of 1 mile/$0.01.
Possibly the end of complimentary Y --> PE for EXP/CK as well?
My worst fear is that they'd start to treat MCE as a separate cabin like DL does with Comfort+, and treat them as capacity-controlled upgrades just like they do with First Class. I know we have seen some shuffling of fare classes already come September, but I hope this is not also part of the "Fare Class Realignment" they're talking about.
#39
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: NYC
Posts: 27,190
At some point there is going to be a monetization of the domestic F cabin by the US3. If not this year not too far down the road. There's too much pressure from Wall Street to ever increase revenues and there are already airlines that in fact have no complimentary upgrade system. You can't get Mint for free. I think such a move would only fail if one of the US3 didn't go along but let's face it none of them have bucked the trend.
DL said years ago that its goal was to sell 80% of domestic first class seats (though it didn't specify at what price...)
I don't know if there's any reason to take away complimentary upgrades altogether. Mint is somewhat of a different beast vs. regular domestic FC, and in fact DL did remove comp upgrades on its transcons when it introduced "DeltaOne" but reinstated them, albeit only on day of departure (and they're unicorns for all but top-tier or Saturday night flights). I guess they could always try again and see if AA/UA would follow...
#42
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: LHR / BHX / MAN / ATL
Programs: DL DM 2MM - IHG Diamond
Posts: 4,051
Up until a few years ago, Delta required VERY expensive fare classes to use the upgrade certificates... often more expensive than just buying discount J. So the carriers havent exactly been in lockstep here. I think AA would be fine offering single-cabin upgrades while Delta allowed Y> J.
So in summary, GUC's went from heavily restricted but virtually guaranteed upgrades to a more widely accessible CHANCE of an upgrade into the leftover seats that DL hasn't sold. Each procedure s*cks, they just s*ck in different ways.
#43
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Los Angeles
Programs: AA LT Gold
Posts: 3,637
With respect to PE, DL is behind AA so they are followers in this case.
#44
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: PHL
Programs: AA - Plat, HHonors - Diamond, IHG - Plat, Marriott - Gold, National - Exec, Amtrak - Select, NEXUS
Posts: 1,075
If/when AA was to implement this, the only value of PPro for me - where I actually get upgrades at a rate better than the 10% I was getting as a Plat - would be the no charge SDFC. I don't check bags and the mileage bonus doesn't matter to me given my (relatively) high EQD level with OPM.
#45
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Wesley Chapel, FL
Programs: American Airlines
Posts: 29,759
The fact Delta treats this as an upgrade is laughable but ultimately sad as AA only follows DL's moves.