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Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2018 master thread)

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Old Dec 17, 2017, 12:15 pm
FlyerTalk Forums Expert How-Tos and Guides
Last edit by: aztimm
Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing
NOTE: Be aware of recent (20 May 2017) upgrade priority changes.

"New Upgrade Priority as of 20 May 2017

(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)
  • Elite status
    1. Concierge Key
      • Executive Platinum
        • Platinum Pro
          • Platinum
            • Gold
    • Upgrade type
      1. Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
        • 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
          • 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)

      • Elite qualifying dollars in the past 12 months
        • Booking class
          • Time of request"


See Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017

Link to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017

Updated 17 Dec 2017 by aztimm
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Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2018 master thread)

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Old Jun 1, 2018, 11:59 am
  #286  
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Location: FL, USA
Programs: AA Plat, Hyatt Explorist, Hilton Diamond, IHG Plat, Marriot Gold
Posts: 1,666
Originally Posted by chicagoflyer1976
depending on when you go, this can be really tough to clear. I booked a trip last summer for this past February, and first through Dallas (to/from both Honolulu and Maui) were practically sold out 6 months in advance.
I looked at some routes on aa.com and the seat availability in 1st was pretty wide open for my dates.
Originally Posted by Antarius
Avoid PHX to Hawaii. Not worth the upgrade. It's the worst flight in the network IMO.
in first or in general? I flew this route two years ago, PHX-KOA (kona?) in economy and it wasn't bad. MCE seats though. but no food which I though was absurd.
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Old Jun 1, 2018, 1:01 pm
  #287  
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Posts: 11,249
Originally Posted by miadukes
in first or in general? I flew this route two years ago, PHX-KOA (kona?) in economy and it wasn't bad. MCE seats though. but no food which I though was absurd.
It is basically an old LUS bird with no power, no IFE. In F, I felt it was a total ripoff, especially given LAX has the nice LAA 321s and DFW has the 772s (which are by far the best).

In summary, not worth the upgrade. The delta between F and Y on these 752s is not worth the price paid. At all.
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Old Jun 1, 2018, 1:24 pm
  #288  
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Location: FL, USA
Programs: AA Plat, Hyatt Explorist, Hilton Diamond, IHG Plat, Marriot Gold
Posts: 1,666
Originally Posted by Antarius
It is basically an old LUS bird with no power, no IFE. In F, I felt it was a total ripoff, especially given LAX has the nice LAA 321s and DFW has the 772s (which are by far the best).

In summary, not worth the upgrade. The delta between F and Y on these 752s is not worth the price paid. At all.
Ok thanks for the info, I will keep that in mind when selecting itineraries as well. What plane is that from PHX? Granted I must be in the minority or maybe cuz it was my first eve flight up front but from LIM-MIA was the 767 and i thought that was just fine LOL (but again from what I read I am in the minority and in all fairness I haven't experienced any other First class product)
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Old Jun 1, 2018, 1:27 pm
  #289  
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Originally Posted by miadukes
Ok thanks for the info, I will keep that in mind when selecting itineraries as well. What plane is that from PHX? Granted I must be in the minority or maybe cuz it was my first eve flight up front but from LIM-MIA was the 767 and i thought that was just fine LOL (but again from what I read I am in the minority and in all fairness I haven't experienced any other First class product)
old US airways 757. 12 F seats but they replaced the LUS angle flats with the domestic F seats. No power, no in flight entertainment.

DFW has the 777 with lay flat seats. I highly recommend this route.
lds89 and miadukes like this.
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Old Jun 1, 2018, 6:12 pm
  #290  
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Programs: United Premier Platinum
Posts: 638
Booked DFW-HKG departing mid-August on a Saturday, my first time on this route. I immediately requested a Y -> J Miles + copay upgrade.

I’ve heard about how difficult it is to be upgraded on this flight, and know from experience that Saturday is a bad day for J upgrades on TPACs. OTOH, most of my NRT/HND upgrade requests this year have cleared between 3-6 weeks prior to departure.

What are my ballpark chances of this leg clearing either several weeks out or at the gate?

I am an EXP, but barely made the EQD cutoff.
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Old Jun 1, 2018, 6:34 pm
  #291  
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: SLC
Programs: AA EXP, Marriott Plat
Posts: 616
Originally Posted by mcrw00
Booked DFW-HKG departing mid-August on a Saturday, my first time on this route. I immediately requested a Y -> J Miles + copay upgrade.

I’ve heard about how difficult it is to be upgraded on this flight, and know from experience that Saturday is a bad day for J upgrades on TPACs. OTOH, most of my NRT/HND upgrade requests this year have cleared between 3-6 weeks prior to departure.

What are my ballpark chances of this leg clearing either several weeks out or at the gate?

I am an EXP, but barely made the EQD cutoff.
Out of DFW the upgrade is tough, and I have found being #1 on the upgrade list one our prior to departure means nothing, with three open seats, a lot of weird things go on and suddenly other PAX are higher on the list or PAX lower on the list are selected. Seemed fishy to me as it has happened twice, but if I wanted a J ticket I needed to buy one, anything else is just a wish and a prayer.

I flew last Tuesday on a paid J LAX to HKG- went out with three empty J seats. I suspect LAX-HKG may be a bit easier upgrade than DFW-HKG.
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Old Jun 1, 2018, 7:34 pm
  #292  
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Programs: United Premier Platinum
Posts: 638
Originally Posted by GunsOfNavarone
Out of DFW the upgrade is tough, and I have found being #1 on the upgrade list one our prior to departure means nothing
In these two cases how many days/weeks were you on the waitlist prior to DoD?
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Old Jun 1, 2018, 7:59 pm
  #293  
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Originally Posted by mcrw00
In these two cases how many days/weeks were you on the waitlist prior to DoD?
Why does it matter? Time of request doesnt affect your position. Unless you mean they release advance C inventory - which I have not seen/heard of on this route
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Old Jun 1, 2018, 9:06 pm
  #294  
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Programs: United Premier Platinum
Posts: 638
Originally Posted by Antarius
Why does it matter? Time of request doesnt affect your position. Unless you mean they release advance C inventory - which I have not seen/heard of on this route
That’s what I meant. All 4 of my SWU redemptions this year cleared with advance C inventory, though not for the HKG route.
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Old Jun 2, 2018, 9:55 am
  #295  
 
Join Date: Nov 2016
Posts: 532
Upgrade Success from MCI, DCA, and MIA

Do any Platinums or Platinum Pros have any experience with how frequently they get upgraded on these routes:

DCA-MIA
DCA-ORD
DCA-DFW
IAD-DFW

MIA-TGU
MIA-STI

MCI-DCA
MCI-CLT
MCI-MIA
EQDsSUCK is offline  
Old Jun 2, 2018, 12:00 pm
  #296  
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: DCA
Programs: AA Gold, HH Diamond, UA Silver
Posts: 1,366
Don’t hold your breath. As a plat flying in/out of dca and iad regularly, i have not been upgraded on any of the routes you list this year, though I always request the upgrade. Last year as EXP, I flew dca to/from dfw a number of tImes, and never received an upgrade; on one trip back from dfw, I was number 17 on the upgrade list.
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Old Jun 2, 2018, 1:43 pm
  #297  
 
Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: DCA/IAD
Programs: AA EXP; 1W Emerald; HHonors Diamond; Marriott Gold; UA dirt
Posts: 7,816
Agree and disagree with last poster. I've upgraded three out of four in the last 12 months and have upgraded MCI last time I did it.

However, prime time ORD flights are tough. I upgraded ORD three weeks ago as a Plat - a noon flight. I missed upgrading ORD-DCA on the return on a prime time dinner flight - was #1 on the list.

I do ten to upgrade MIA - in the early morning and late evening flights. This is an elite heavy route as its hub-hub and you get a lot of cruisers who pay for F. Prime time upgrades for plats are tough.

DFW is hit and miss. Ive had success and I;ve been way back on the list.
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Old Jun 2, 2018, 11:36 pm
  #298  
 
Join Date: Nov 2016
Posts: 532
Thank you for the feedback!!! :-)
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Old Jun 3, 2018, 12:52 am
  #299  
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: SLC
Programs: AA EXP, Marriott Plat
Posts: 616
Originally Posted by mcrw00


In these two cases how many days/weeks were you on the waitlist prior to DoD?
I am a typically a full fare Y flyer, who often purchases tickets from 24-72 hours out, so I am not typically wait-listed for extended periods of time.
GunsOfNavarone is offline  
Old Jun 3, 2018, 3:49 pm
  #300  
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Posts: 230
I’ve applied to use a couple of my 500 mile upgrades on my CLT-DFW tomorrow, and I’m on the list with 1 seat left in F.

I don’t fancy my chances as gold with $7K EQD over the last 12 months.

Same goes for the return on Tuesday. Got to try though, haven’t you?
thedeeg is offline  


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