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Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2018 master thread)

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Old Dec 17, 2017, 12:15 pm
FlyerTalk Forums Expert How-Tos and Guides
Last edit by: aztimm
Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing
NOTE: Be aware of recent (20 May 2017) upgrade priority changes.

"New Upgrade Priority as of 20 May 2017

(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)
  • Elite status
    1. Concierge Key
      • Executive Platinum
        • Platinum Pro
          • Platinum
            • Gold
    • Upgrade type
      1. Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
        • 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
          • 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)

      • Elite qualifying dollars in the past 12 months
        • Booking class
          • Time of request"


See Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017

Link to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017

Updated 17 Dec 2017 by aztimm
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Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2018 master thread)

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Old Feb 27, 2018, 9:04 am
  #136  
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Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: KHOU/KIAH
Programs: AA EXP | Marriott Bonvoy Titanium| Hyatt Globalist
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A chunk of my rolling EQD spend just passed the 1 year mark (2017 was very top heavy). Found myself #14 on the UG list from DFW-IAH on Sunday
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Old Mar 1, 2018, 8:40 pm
  #137  
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Posts: 91
Originally Posted by chicagoflyer1976
are most of these flights at prime business time? Those are some pretty rough lists
most returns to ORD are, most outbounds are not.
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Old Mar 4, 2018, 9:15 pm
  #138  
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: HND
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Posts: 1,230
NRT-MIA upgrade strategy

deleted

Last edited by tylerdurden4543; Mar 7, 2018 at 6:09 pm
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Old Mar 7, 2018, 12:29 pm
  #139  
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Posts: 7
Anyone know the chances of an SWU clearing on 3/9 LAX - LHR on AA 108?
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Old Mar 7, 2018, 2:19 pm
  #140  
 
Join Date: May 2017
Location: San Francisco
Programs: AA EXP
Posts: 369
Originally Posted by ticos
Anyone know the chances of an SWU clearing on 3/9 LAX - LHR on AA 108?
Not great. Showing J2 R1 D0 I0 currently.
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Old Mar 7, 2018, 8:23 pm
  #141  
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Posts: 7
Originally Posted by potus18
Not great. Showing J2 R1 D0 I0 currently.
Thanks for the prompt reply. That's what I was afraid of. Looks like the 6:55 (AA 136) might have slightly better availability.
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Old Mar 10, 2018, 10:13 am
  #142  
 
Join Date: Jul 2017
Posts: 204
Upgrade cleared yesterday morning for Mar 22 flight DFW to PEK. Still waiting on the March 26 return leg.
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Old Mar 12, 2018, 6:43 pm
  #143  
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 16
Originally Posted by Antarius
Both ways, LAX-HKG and HKG-LAX aren't terribly hard for upgrades from what I have seen or heard.
Potentially flying this exact route (roundtrip) in May or June. Does "not terribly hard" mean that a plain Gold AA member, on an inexpensive economy ticket, could get upgraded to Premium Economy or even Business class? Or is this highly unlikely? Asking for a friend...
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Old Mar 12, 2018, 8:42 pm
  #144  
PHL
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Join Date: Dec 2000
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Programs: AA PLT, DL SLV, UA SLV, MR LTT, HH DIA
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Some of you might hate me for this, but my experience as a Gold on domestic flights to/from PHL hasn't been terrible. I'm batting probably 30%, which sounds like a better average than some other FT'ers on elite heavy routes. Thanks to EF, if I see my flight is pretty heavy in J a few days before the flight, then I lose any hope for the T minus 24 upgrade. If it's light, then I'll make sure there are enough E-certs in my account if I want the upgrade. Otherwise, if I see my flight is heavy in Y, then I will pay the fee to bump up to a guaranteed MCE seat and be totally content - especially in a month or two when MCE gets some additional perks. My trips are usually around 3 hours so I'm not even thinking about the transcons. I know those are a battlefield for even the ExP's. If I have the flexibility, I would probably just pay ahead for an MCE seat in those cases too.
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Old Mar 12, 2018, 8:46 pm
  #145  
PHL
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Originally Posted by exactabox
Potentially flying this exact route (roundtrip) in May or June. Does "not terribly hard" mean that a plain Gold AA member, on an inexpensive economy ticket, could get upgraded to Premium Economy or even Business class? Or is this highly unlikely? Asking for a friend...
Tell your "friend" that it's highly unlikely unless the plane is in an oversell situation where:

1.) There are more coach pax booked than there are seats
*AND*
2.) There are available PEY and J seats that haven't been booked so that *ELITE* coach passengers can be moved up, starting with the highest levels

In that scenario, the gate agent may start to roll elites forward to make room for the overbooked coach passengers. In the meantime, I suggest your friend find the best coach seat and expect to sit in it. Especially if he/she is a Gold....
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Old Mar 12, 2018, 11:00 pm
  #146  
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Programs: AA
Posts: 10
For an international flight, does a SWU and a BXP3 award have the same priority on the upgrade list? or does a SWU come first?
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Old Mar 13, 2018, 12:04 am
  #147  
 
Join Date: May 2017
Location: San Francisco
Programs: AA EXP
Posts: 369
Originally Posted by nyctechguy
For an international flight, does a SWU and a BXP3 award have the same priority on the upgrade list? or does a SWU come first?
SWU and BXP3 (also miles/copay) are weighed equally.
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Old Mar 13, 2018, 4:06 am
  #148  
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Join Date: Feb 2001
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Posts: 12,494
Originally Posted by exactabox
Potentially flying this exact route (roundtrip) in May or June. Does "not terribly hard" mean that a plain Gold AA member, on an inexpensive economy ticket, could get upgraded to Premium Economy or even Business class? Or is this highly unlikely? Asking for a friend...
If your friend is just hoping for a free upgrade, then there's virtually no chance, as PHL mentioned above.

However, if your friend is willing to use miles/copay (25k + $350 each way) then the chances are decent. There are scattered dates from now through the summer with C space, so your friend could get upgraded immediately, no waitlist.
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Old Mar 13, 2018, 1:21 pm
  #149  
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 16
Originally Posted by PHL
Tell your "friend" that it's highly unlikely unless the plane is in an oversell situation where:

1.) There are more coach pax booked than there are seats
*AND*
2.) There are available PEY and J seats that haven't been booked so that *ELITE* coach passengers can be moved up, starting with the highest levels

In that scenario, the gate agent may start to roll elites forward to make room for the overbooked coach passengers. In the meantime, I suggest your friend find the best coach seat and expect to sit in it. Especially if he/she is a Gold....
Thanks for the info, we've never had the opportunity to try for international upgrades.. From previous experience, the "best coach seat" would probably be on a different airline entirely, so despite the AA Gold status we will likely choose a different carrier..

Originally Posted by JJeffrey
If your friend is just hoping for a free upgrade, then there's virtually no chance, as PHL mentioned above.

However, if your friend is willing to use miles/copay (25k + $350 each way) then the chances are decent. There are scattered dates from now through the summer with C space, so your friend could get upgraded immediately, no waitlist.
Thank you for this info. I read the details on AA's web site and I'm still not 100%... would a paid upgrade from Economy land us in Premium Economy, or in Business class? I don't know if Premium Economy is considered its own "next cabin of service." Thanks.

Last edited by JY1024; Mar 13, 2018 at 4:46 pm Reason: Merged consecutive posts
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Old Mar 13, 2018, 1:35 pm
  #150  
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Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: DEN
Programs: AA EXP, AA Million Miles, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 2,586
Originally Posted by exactabox
Thanks for the info, we've never had the opportunity to try for international upgrades.. From previous experience, the "best coach seat" would probably be on a different airline entirely, so despite the AA Gold status we will likely choose a different carrier..
On international longhauls the only way to "try" for an upgrade is with an SWU or miles and money request. There are no free upgrades (operational upgrades are so rare as to be completely irrelevant). There is currently no way to upgrade, as a gold, from Y to PEY (other than by buying up to the PEY fare).

On LAX/HKG AA's MCE coach seats are, IMO, likely to the best "hard product" regular coach seat available - unless you fly JAL and connect in Tokyo, which provide a better than average Y seat.
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