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Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2018 master thread)

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Old Dec 17, 2017, 12:15 pm
FlyerTalk Forums Expert How-Tos and Guides
Last edit by: aztimm
Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing
NOTE: Be aware of recent (20 May 2017) upgrade priority changes.

"New Upgrade Priority as of 20 May 2017

(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)
  • Elite status
    1. Concierge Key
      • Executive Platinum
        • Platinum Pro
          • Platinum
            • Gold
    • Upgrade type
      1. Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
        • 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
          • 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)

      • Elite qualifying dollars in the past 12 months
        • Booking class
          • Time of request"


See Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017

Link to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017

Updated 17 Dec 2017 by aztimm
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Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2018 master thread)

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Old Dec 18, 2018, 2:58 pm
  #886  
 
Join Date: Dec 2012
Location: WAS/NYC/LON
Programs: AA EXP, HH DIA, Hyatt DIA
Posts: 286
Ended up using an SWU for a JFK->LAX this week, as I didn't want to chance higher pre-holiday loads. Cleared ~36 hours in advance.
ComplexAnalysis is offline  
Old Dec 18, 2018, 8:11 pm
  #887  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: RDU <|> MMX
Programs: AA EXP 2MM, SK EBS
Posts: 12,495
Originally Posted by Brandontheflyer
hey guys ,
Can someone tell me the chances of me and my dad getting upgraded on aa38 on the 12/23/18? We are using a swu.
Thanks in advance
What is your status? Business is pretty full but still J7, so there's a little bit of room. The good news is that normal paid business travel drops off a cliff from now to the beginning of the year (especially last minute paid J), so depending on your status I'd say chances are ok.
JJeffrey is online now  
Old Dec 18, 2018, 8:25 pm
  #888  
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Hoboken, NJ
Programs: AA Gold
Posts: 194
AA2418 on 12/21 on the 788 from DFW-ORD...

Pretty much an impossible upgrade for a PLT like me, right?
BOSishome is offline  
Old Dec 18, 2018, 8:30 pm
  #889  
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: PHX
Programs: AA PLT, Ent PLT
Posts: 57
Aa193 lax - hkg

Myself and a co-worker are both waitlisted on 193 from LAX to HKG on Christmas. EF currently shows J7 and 14 open seats. We are using BXP3 and are both Plt. Do you think that we have a chance?
Tommy Two Thumbs is offline  
Old Dec 18, 2018, 10:50 pm
  #890  
 
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Dallas, Texas
Programs: AA Exp. Bonvoy Gold, Hilton Gold, IHG Platinum.
Posts: 1,186
Originally Posted by Brandontheflyer
hey guys ,
Can someone tell me the chances of me and my dad getting upgraded on aa38 on the 12/23/18? We are using a swu.
Thanks in advance
Shows J7R7D7 with a dozen open seats on the seat map. I would say you have a very good chance of an upgrade. I'm assuming one of you is Exec Plat?
MorganB is offline  
Old Dec 19, 2018, 6:36 am
  #891  
 
Join Date: Jul 2016
Location: DC
Programs: AA PPRO, HH Diamond, National EE
Posts: 603
If someone puts in a SWU for me, is the priority based of their status or my status?
hawkfan7314 is offline  
Old Dec 19, 2018, 8:21 am
  #892  
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: AUS
Programs: AA Exec Platinum/MM, DL Gold/MM, Hilton Diamond, Accor Platinum, Hertz Presidents Circle
Posts: 6,978
Originally Posted by hawkfan7314
If someone puts in a SWU for me, is the priority based of their status or my status?
Yours
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Stripe is offline  
Old Dec 19, 2018, 10:48 am
  #893  
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: PBI/FLL/MIA/BOS/NYC/DXB
Programs: Emirates Skywards (Gold) / SPG Gold / Intercontinental Ambassador / AMEX Platinum
Posts: 196
I am on LAX>HKG. I don't understand - there were 14 seats available as of yesterday. Now I called in and there are only one or two seats. Did folks get upgraded? I booked and requested an SWU yesterday. This is flight AA 193 for December 19 (Today)...EXP with 12k EQD rolling. Any chance?
sis22 is offline  
Old Dec 19, 2018, 10:54 am
  #894  
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Miami, Florida, USA
Posts: 213
Well colour me impressed - right at 48 hours out (ok well technically 3 minutes less), I received an email from AA confirming my upgrade using a few 500 certs for MIA-BOS. I'd pretty much given up trying to use 500 mile upgrades especially once the PlatPro level was intro'd and likewise the whole rolling spend - especially considering most times I fly domestic, the upgrade list at the gate seems to be a minimum of 12 or more. Maybe this is a little holiday gift from AA to try to woo me back considering I won't even qualify for Gold at the end of the year and my spend with them has been minuscule this year.
pmanchuk is offline  
Old Dec 19, 2018, 11:22 am
  #895  
Moderator: American AAdvantage, Travel Safety/Security & Texas, FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: AUS / GRK
Programs: AA, HHonors, Hertz
Posts: 13,492
Originally Posted by sis22
I am on LAX>HKG. I don't understand - there were 14 seats available as of yesterday. Now I called in and there are only one or two seats. Did folks get upgraded? I booked and requested an SWU yesterday. This is flight AA 193 for December 19 (Today)...EXP with 12k EQD rolling. Any chance?
According to Expert Flyer, the biz cabin is zero'd out, as is PE. But in looking at the seatmap, there are 4 unassigned seats in biz and a few in PE.
aztimm is offline  
Old Dec 19, 2018, 1:56 pm
  #896  
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: SoCal
Programs: AA EXP, HHonors LTDia, Marriott Plat
Posts: 639
Originally Posted by BOSishome
AA2418 on 12/21 on the 788 from DFW-ORD...

Pretty much an impossible upgrade for a PLT like me, right?
Not impossible, just improbable. As an EXP with 27k EQDs I'm lucky to get it on the 789 from LAX-DFW 50% of the time.
TSparky is offline  
Old Dec 19, 2018, 2:01 pm
  #897  
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: SoCal
Programs: AA EXP, HHonors LTDia, Marriott Plat
Posts: 639
12/17 LAX-DFW 789 ugraded at 100h. 42 on the upgrade list at the airport.
12/17 DFW-IND 738 upgraded at 23h. 2 on the upgrade list
12/21 IND-DFW 738/DFW-LAX 789 upgraded at 100h

The 789 upgrade at 100 hasn't happened in a while. Maybe because it's Mon-Fri instead of the usual Sun-Thu and less EXPs?
TSparky is offline  
Old Dec 19, 2018, 5:11 pm
  #898  
 
Join Date: Apr 2017
Location: ORD
Programs: aadvantage, mileage plus, millemiglia
Posts: 100
I recently made EXP and I'm trying to figure out how the SWUs work. Is an SWU more or less (or exactly the same) likely to clear as compared to miles + copay? I'm traveling ORD-FCO (via PHL) on either 1/6 or 1/7 (Sun or Mon). I'm hoping to buy a coach ticket and use an SWU to upgrade. I'm assuming that I'll be waitlisted. I have about 19k EQD. Are my chances good to get the upgrade?
goldmarch is online now  
Old Dec 19, 2018, 5:24 pm
  #899  
 
Join Date: Jul 2017
Location: NYC/BOS
Programs: AA Platinum, Marriott Bonvoy Gold
Posts: 54
Originally Posted by goldmarch
I recently made EXP and I'm trying to figure out how the SWUs work. Is an SWU more or less (or exactly the same) likely to clear as compared to miles + copay? I'm traveling ORD-FCO (via PHL) on either 1/6 or 1/7 (Sun or Mon). I'm hoping to buy a coach ticket and use an SWU to upgrade. I'm assuming that I'll be waitlisted. I have about 19k EQD. Are my chances good to get the upgrade?
I checked expertflyer for you and there is no confirmable upgrade space on either date for PHL-FCO, so you would have to be waitlisted. Also, it shows J7 on 1/6 with 12 seats open on seat map and J4 on 1/7, so you have a better chance on 1/6.
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kjm12898 is offline  
Old Dec 19, 2018, 8:15 pm
  #900  
 
Join Date: Jul 2016
Location: DC
Programs: AA PPRO, HH Diamond, National EE
Posts: 603
BWI-DFW cleared at 48hrs for two pax.
hawkfan7314 is offline  


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