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2017 Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (consolidated)

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Old May 22, 2017, 6:21 am
FlyerTalk Forums Expert How-Tos and Guides
Last edit by: JDiver
Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing

NOTE: Be aware of recent (20 May 2017) upgrade priority changes.

"New Upgrade Priority as of 20 May 2017

(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)
  • Elite status
    1. Concierge Key
    2. Executive Platinum
    3. Platinum Pro
    4. Platinum
    5. Gold
  • Upgrade type
    1. Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
    2. 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
    3. 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)
  • Elite qualifying dollars in the past 12 months

  • Booking class

  • Time of request"


See Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017

U]Link[/U] to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017

Updated 22 May 2017 by JDiver
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2017 Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (consolidated)

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Old Oct 5, 2017, 11:14 am
  #676  
 
Join Date: Apr 2017
Location: PVD, BOS
Programs: AA EXP
Posts: 1,664
Originally Posted by AtomicLush
Has anyone ever cleared NRT to ORD on AA 154 on a Wednesday (or midweek)? Looks like a really large plane with a tiny biz class and the biz cabin is already 1/2 full for my flight in 2 months. We're on separate PNR's EXP + PLAT.
I cleared AA154 on a Friday a few weeks ago. Then I cleared AA153 on the following Sunday. I was Plat at the time travelling solo.

The cabin looked fairly full in the weeks leading up to the trip, so I was very surprised to clear upgrades on both flights.
TravelLawyer likes this.
swingaling is offline  
Old Oct 5, 2017, 12:24 pm
  #677  
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: Bay Area, CA
Posts: 9
Originally Posted by solewalker
10/10 Looks promising. They are almost sold out in Y, so I imagine that taking a SWU from you is preferably to giving a free op-up. Tuesdays are also quite ok out of LAX.

10/28 Might be slightly tougher. What does the MCE occupancy look like? Empty? Full?

On 10/28, 24 of 30 MCE seats have been selected, so seemingly quite full.

I appreciate the help!!
wildabeast4 is offline  
Old Oct 5, 2017, 1:37 pm
  #678  
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: ORD (formerly SAN)
Programs: Hilton Diamond; IHG Platinum; Bonvoy Gold; AA Platinum Pro and United Premier Silver (DH = AA EXP)
Posts: 1,929
Originally Posted by JJeffrey
Sure, it's one worthless data point but I've cleared NRT-ORD many times over the years, typically flying early to midweek.

Like most other AA long haul flights these days, you likely won't clear till 1 or 2 days before if the current space holds up.
Originally Posted by swingaling
I cleared AA154 on a Friday a few weeks ago. Then I cleared AA153 on the following Sunday. I was Plat at the time travelling solo.

The cabin looked fairly full in the weeks leading up to the trip, so I was very surprised to clear upgrades on both flights.
Thanks for the insights. I'll hold out hope, but not too much. And prep myself for hanging out in Y if necessary (ugh). We cleared DFW-HKG on the way there, so we're happy about that (knock on wood that we don't lose those seats somehow). We typically book biz outright, but sale fares never dipped below $3k (our typical threshold for ORD-HKG w/ max 1 connex) this year (at least not when we were tracking) so we're flying Y and hoping for upgrades to clear.
TravelLawyer is offline  
Old Oct 6, 2017, 10:52 am
  #679  
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: Bay Area, CA
Posts: 9
Originally Posted by solewalker
10/10 Looks promising. They are almost sold out in Y, so I imagine that taking a SWU from you is preferably to giving a free op-up. Tuesdays are also quite ok out of LAX.

10/28 Might be slightly tougher. What does the MCE occupancy look like? Empty? Full?
For what it's worth, my upgrade for 10/10 just cleared with the following expert flyer inventory showing as of the time of upgrade:

F5 A4 J5 R4 D3 I1 Y0 B0 H0 K0 M0 L0 G0 V0 S0 N0 Q0 O0 E0

Worth noting, I did have to call AA to get it done...it had not auto cleared yet even though I was on the upgrade list.

Fingers crossed for the return clearing!
solewalker likes this.
wildabeast4 is offline  
Old Oct 6, 2017, 11:27 am
  #680  
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: DCA/IAD/WAS
Programs: MAR AMB, WOH Explorist, AA EXP, UA 2P
Posts: 2,138
I think I'm in good shape here but figured I'd ask (though yesterday the return was J7 I4 with 10 empty seats, grr).

11/15 PHL-FCO
J7 R7 D7 I7 Y7 B0 H7 K7 M7 L7 G7 V7 S7 N7 Q7 O7 E7

11/19 FCO-PHL
J6 R4 D5 I3 Y7 B0 H7 K7 M7 L7 G7 V7 S7 N7 Q7 O7 E7
iadisgreat is offline  
Old Oct 6, 2017, 4:52 pm
  #681  
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: NYC
Programs: AA EXP
Posts: 1,372
Anyone have any experience with AA 95 MAD-JFK? I'm waitlisted with a SWU for 10/23, but in the past week it's gone from J7 to J2. Is this usually a full flight in J? I figured a Monday in October would be a good chance for the SWU to clear, but maybe I was wrong?
DMPHL is offline  
Old Oct 6, 2017, 6:56 pm
  #682  
 
Join Date: Dec 2012
Programs: AAdvantage Executive Platinum (3 Million Miler), IHG Spire Royal Amdassador
Posts: 282
Flying DFW>NRT, flt 61, tomorrow 7 Oct. Been waitlisted for SWU since April. At T-27, I received the Expert Flyer Notification that C class opened up (3 seats available for upgrade with a total of 6 seats open in biz). Called EXP desk within minutes and although it hadn't automatically cleared yet, the agent was able to process the upgrade. Yay! But still don't like sweating it out for 6 months... We'll see what happens on the return next Saturday, 14 Oct, flt 60!
VaBeachGirl is offline  
Old Oct 6, 2017, 7:00 pm
  #683  
 
Join Date: Dec 2012
Programs: AAdvantage Executive Platinum (3 Million Miler), IHG Spire Royal Amdassador
Posts: 282
Originally Posted by iadisgreat
I think I'm in good shape here but figured I'd ask (though yesterday the return was J7 I4 with 10 empty seats, grr).

11/15 PHL-FCO
J7 R7 D7 I7 Y7 B0 H7 K7 M7 L7 G7 V7 S7 N7 Q7 O7 E7

11/19 FCO-PHL
J6 R4 D5 I3 Y7 B0 H7 K7 M7 L7 G7 V7 S7 N7 Q7 O7 E7
I had my sister (with no status) waitlisted for SWU on FCO>PHL on 9/21. She cleared T-40 with J3.
VaBeachGirl is offline  
Old Oct 6, 2017, 7:38 pm
  #684  
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: DCA/IAD/WAS
Programs: MAR AMB, WOH Explorist, AA EXP, UA 2P
Posts: 2,138
Originally Posted by VaBeachGirl
I had my sister (with no status) waitlisted for SWU on FCO>PHL on 9/21. She cleared T-40 with J3.
Awesome makes me happier haha
iadisgreat is offline  
Old Oct 8, 2017, 4:55 am
  #685  
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 989
Hey guys, need some expert advice. Long story short, I have JFK-LAX-HKG upgrade for 2 passengers. The LAX-HKG segment cleared, but I only have one SWU. I assume that I must split the record in order to process one with SWU and the other with miles and cash. However, I don't want to do that until the first segment clears also, so that my daughter would inherit my EXP status on the priority list. Can I wait until the gate to pay for the upgrade portion that is miles and cash? What other options may I have? Thanks in advance!
babypuwet is offline  
Old Oct 11, 2017, 7:12 pm
  #686  
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 989
Hi guys, I need some help figuring out if I have been upgraded or not. I applied a SWU for JFK-LAX-HKG. The LAX-HKG had already been upgraded. A couple of days ago, the JFK-LAX segment shows requested. Today, it shows confirmed. But it lists two flights, one says original flight and the other says standby flight. Both shows upgrade confirmed and in business, but one shows seats 12C and 12A, while the other shows 3A and 3D. However, I cannot change seats and when I call in, the phone reps tell me that I am still waitlisted for that segment. Please look at the below screenshots and let me know what you think. Am I still waitlisted and the website showing SWU confirmed is just an IT glitch? Thanks
Attached Images    
babypuwet is offline  
Old Oct 11, 2017, 7:23 pm
  #687  
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Programs: AA, United, Alaska, Virgin America
Posts: 15
Unfortunately that is how AA shows your situation - they don’t have a way of showing it correctly and since the long haul cleared, your upgrade is confirmed. They don’t do married segments anymore either so your chances for the transcontinental are only increased by the fact that you are on an SWU.

Originally Posted by babypuwet
Hi guys, I need some help figuring out if I have been upgraded or not. I applied a SWU for JFK-LAX-HKG. The LAX-HKG had already been upgraded. A couple of days ago, the JFK-LAX segment shows requested. Today, it shows confirmed. But it lists two flights, one says original flight and the other says standby flight. Both shows upgrade confirmed and in business, but one shows seats 12C and 12A, while the other shows 3A and 3D. However, I cannot change seats and when I call in, the phone reps tell me that I am still waitlisted for that segment. Please look at the below screenshots and let me know what you think. Am I still waitlisted and the website showing SWU confirmed is just an IT glitch? Thanks
j25borg is offline  
Old Oct 11, 2017, 7:54 pm
  #688  
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 989
Originally Posted by j25borg
Unfortunately that is how AA shows your situation - they don’t have a way of showing it correctly and since the long haul cleared, your upgrade is confirmed. They don’t do married segments anymore either so your chances for the transcontinental are only increased by the fact that you are on an SWU.
I see, thanks for the reply. Just had a follow up question to your answer though. The upgrade request was showing correctly a few days ago. I.e. LAX-HKG confirmed and JFK-LAX requested. Any ideas to why it is showing something different now?
babypuwet is offline  
Old Oct 11, 2017, 8:07 pm
  #689  
 
Join Date: Feb 2014
Programs: AA, United, Alaska, Virgin America
Posts: 15
Originally Posted by babypuwet
I see, thanks for the reply. Just had a follow up question to your answer though. The upgrade request was showing correctly a few days ago. I.e. LAX-HKG confirmed and JFK-LAX requested. Any ideas to why it is showing something different now?
My experience with how they display a waitlisted reservation for SWUs online has shown that it can flop back and forth between what you see now and what you saw. I’ve been fooled and had my hopes up many times due to this, and then call to no avail. That transcon leg is actually harder to get a pre-confirmed upgrade on than the long haul, IMHO. It doesn’t hurt to call and try to force the agent to make a formal request to revenue, but that is hard in itself. I probably tried 20 times on the phone with the EXP desk on an SFO - JFK SWU. I flew in coach that night after 8 months on the waitlist. Also if it comes down to the gate you might be able to sweet talk further priority due to it being on a connection.
j25borg is offline  
Old Oct 11, 2017, 8:27 pm
  #690  
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 989
Originally Posted by j25borg
My experience with how they display a waitlisted reservation for SWUs online has shown that it can flop back and forth between what you see now and what you saw. I’ve been fooled and had my hopes up many times due to this, and then call to no avail. That transcon leg is actually harder to get a pre-confirmed upgrade on than the long haul, IMHO. It doesn’t hurt to call and try to force the agent to make a formal request to revenue, but that is hard in itself. I probably tried 20 times on the phone with the EXP desk on an SFO - JFK SWU. I flew in coach that night after 8 months on the waitlist. Also if it comes down to the gate you might be able to sweet talk further priority due to it being on a connection.
Thanks for the detailed response! I definitely learned something new. Fingers crossed hoping for the upgrade to clear. Thanks again!
babypuwet is offline  


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