ty97

Sales of codeshares on UA ended on December 9

HUB Flyer

Thanks.

perseus11

I'm aware of what the market sizes are Today. I'm addressing Future expansion "Speculation" from PHL - Total passengers/flights, including a significant increase in connecting OW passengers.

FWAAA

I'm genuinely confused. What has AA been doing at JFK and LGA if not focusing on international flights and domestic O&D?

Shrink LGA or JFK? New AA is already a very distant second to DL at LGA and a distant third at JFK. AA has not been concentrating on domestic connecting traffic at either airport.

JAL has already announced that it will be flying that second daily JFK-NRT flight (replacing 167/168) with one of its new 787s. Double daily JAL service, no AA service. With the joint venture, it only matters to the AA pilots and AA elites who wanted to upgrade.

Before the merger was final, I had speculated that long term, nothing is stopping AA or JAL from flying IAD-NRT and BA already flies to London from IAD. New AA will never build a full-fledged hub at IAD, but perhaps some additional long-haul flights are a possibility, especially if AA continues to prosper at UA's expense, as AA has done for the last two years.

What does "Re-strategize JFK-LAX" mean? Perhaps increase frequencies from nine daily to 13, and perhaps use some new, fuel efficient A321s with 102 seats instead of old 168-seat 762s?

How come? To Europe and Asia, AA is far behind UA and DL in NYC. PHL, on the other hand, appears to already have about all the international flights it can fill. From where would additional passengers come at PHL, since US has almost all the international flights? At JFK, new AA has many multiples of O&D passengers to Europe and Asia, and can take some traffic away from UA, DL, and the myriad other foreign carriers. PHL is already filling its international flights with passengers from NYC and other big cities - many of whom have existing AA nonstop options.

This one is really confusing. Chicago has almost four times the domestic O&D of CLT and almost 2.5 times the domestic O&D of PHL. Chicago has several times more international O&D than CLT and PHL combined. From ORD, AA flies to PEK, PVG and NRT, five flights to London (between AA and BA) and a smattering of European cities, some of them seasonal. AA is planning to fly ORD-GRU next year.

The comment about UA is really puzzling. New AA has lower costs than UA and has been poaching HVFs and revenue from UA since AA filed for Ch 11 two years ago. Smisek at UA has been flailing in a desperate attempt to reduce the bleeding and so far, has not found the recipe. Not since the 1985 UA pilot strike or the 2000 Summer from Hell has UA been as vulnerable to AA, and if anything, AA is poised for growth at ORD. Small RJs are being replaced by 76-seat E175s and with A319s on the way, small mainline planes could also return.

Miami is the number one O&D market to Brazil, followed by NYC and then MCO. As South America transitions to complete open skies, I see MIA traffic expanding substantially. MIA has as much domestic O&D as does CLT. Add in the many multiples of international O&D compared to CLT, and the future looks bright for MIA.

CLT is an inexpensive airport with very low costs per enplaned passenger, but GRU/GIG-CLT-MCO isn't as efficient as Brazil-MIA-MCO.

Shrink at JFK, LGA or ORD? Advocates for this merger harped on AA's inability to secure new (or even retain older) corporate contracts unless it merged with US. Perhaps it's possible that AA's only weaknesses in this area were the lack of a SE connecting hub in CLT and big hubs at PHL and DCA. But it's also possible that those elusive corporate contracts also depend upon a sizable presence in the big cities where most business travel originates or arrives, and those include NYC and CHI.

MAH4546

How is it a distant second? It has 31% of slots (Delta has 41%) and 35% of seats (Delta has 33%).

Art234

I brought this up on another board, but wonder what you all think about the new AA at my home airport, ISP. Right now, there are 4 props to PHL and 2 Satan's Chariots (read CRJ-200) to DCA. I would hope for a couple of 170 or 175 runs a day to ORD or CLT, with WN drawing down ISP..which they don't need any more now that they have expanded presence at LGA.

While I understand not wanting to draw traffic away from NYC, I think there's an opportunity for the new AA at ISP. Wishful thinking perhaps, but what the heck?

flight62

Charlotte will grow both domestically and internationally.

I think a few things will happen. Lufthansa will likely stop their flight as there will be no feed with Star going bye bye. US will not have it's traditional 2 flights to FRA in the summer but one. I would say CLT either starts CLT to Berlin or AirBerlin comes in. I could see Iberia starting service here. Definitely look for BA to start a flight. You just may see two flights on US to LHR.

There is a lot of construction at the CLT airport and it is a big mess now and will be for a while, but the city is expanding and making improvements to the airport that positions them to grow. And Doug is a fan of the CLT airport and Charlotte area. And why not. The city knows the importance of a hub and caters to US Airways on many levels. One is keeping cost down

PWMTrav

Either I didn't provide context or you're taking my statement in a vacuum - either way, that is what they're doing and my position is that they should continue down that path. In the context of shrinking PHL/DCA, as someone else suggested, I was merely going after the idea that maybe shifting some INTL or premium TCON from PHL to NYC made sense, but not domestic connecting traffic. The larger point was that if they really were to shrink PHL or DCA, where would that connecting traffic go since NYC wasn't feasible.

trvlr70

I couldn't agree more. Giving the behemoth that is the Chicago metro to UA by giving up on ORD would be akin to handing it to them on a silver platter. For all the woe's of O'hare, it is geographically one of the best situated airports for domestic connections and a jumping off point to Europe and Asia. Contrary to what is imagined, ORD is actually closer in air miles to most Western European cities than CLT! (although by looking at a Mercator map, it just doesn't appear to be so). Then there is the 3rd strongest O&D market in the country. And and someone has already pointed out, AA has the larger share of the lucrative O&D market in the metro.

It just doesn't make sense to build up international at PHL when a stronger market is available elsewhere.

trvlr70

CLT is basically my home airport. Over the last couple of years, it has been a dream airport. There are far more flights originating here that the market locally supports. But, I don't see this continuing. I can imagine a shifting of international to the bigger O&D markets within the new AA and a general reduction of domestic capacity at the airport. I see the new CLT in role much like DEN or MSP.

GTITAN

Well to anyone that flies out of CLT, I am sure we will not see a price reduction. The non-stop penalty is severe in these parts.

Safe Travels

trvlr70

One more reason I don't see a further retrenchment at ORD is all the Oneworld partners fly in there and depend on that feeder traffic.

BA
JAL
AirBerlin
Finnair
Iberia
Cathay Pacific
Qatar Airways
Royal Jordanian
Alaska

These airlines are NOT all at CLT, PHL, or even DFW.

jmr50

Here's my thoughts:

JFK:

T8 is a solid facility by JFK standards, and while AA is smaller than B6 and DL, the injection of poorly utilized US slots and potentially new wide bodies should permit some growth internationally here. NYC-area is probably the best market in the US for paid C/F traffic too.

Should invest in T8 further, making it the OneWorld "under one roof" site to further support IAG/BA partnership.

If they're smart, they'll try and kill UA on JFK-LAX -- United's presence at JFK is basically zilch aside from P.S., and if JFK-LAX goes, perhaps they and VA/B6 can make JFK-SFO unprofitable enough to get UA to rebase P.S. out of EWR and grab some slots. The demolition of T7 could then commence.

ORD

Again, if they want to get aggressive with United, here's a great place to do it. They're very well positioned for both Asia and Europe, have both strong O&D and connecting marketplace, and can probably chip away at those valuable corporate contracts.

DFW

Fortress hub. Great to see expansion to S. Korea and Hong Kong in 2014, would love to see additional international growth out of here. Perhaps an opportunity with the 788s to try some service to the S. Pacific, although Qantas is a mess. Solid, profitable growth here.

MIA

Gateway to the Americas, concentrate on building the most comprehensive non-stop network to every destination south of the US. Tie that into enough US destinations, and you've got a super competitive 1-stop story there. Domestic connecting in the southeast should shift towards CLT.

LAX

It's a solid O&D market with great corporate contracts for C&F. But the competition is fierce and the facilities need investment and better scheduling/aircraft. More Asia service a must, especially with lie-flats. Can probably de-emphasize the domestic connecting market in favor of PHX, and concentrate on int'l. Should consider OneWorld terminal consolidation here if possible.

PHL

Solid marketplace but a small local market. Make this your connecting point for the northeast instead of LGA or JFK. Keep enough international but don't try and nail every B and C tier European market like they have now, but instead save that for...

CLT

Great market, great position. Some local O&D from finance, but here's where you roll up the entire southeast in a non-constrained location with good weather. It's a bit far for the 752s, but those were crappy economics anyway. Attack Delta's international connecting traffic in ATL and United's dismal IAD with reliable service to Europe. Leave the Americas to MIA. Leave Asia to ORD/DFW. And let JFK concentrate on pure O&D and a more premium mix of seating.

PHX

Shrink down to a focus city or use for western connecting traffic. The question is whether you can make LAX work. If you can, you really don't need PHX and can de-hub by 2016.

Not a hub, but special mention: LGA

If LGA is going to work, you need a new terminal ASAP. DL is doing great stuff with their facility. The Shuttle is a great service, but kinda a one-off. Probably need to fight UA here first, then figure out how to match DL. LGA-ORD is an obvious place to start.

Microwave

For what it's worth, British Airways own T7, so there are slightly more dynamics involved than just moving them to T8 and calling in the bulldozers. Also, I don't think you mean that United's presence at EWR is basically zilch except for p.s.; that would be JFK.

malcolmkettering

OAK to anywhere new. OAK-DFW or OAK-ORD or OAK-LAX ideally.