ARCHIVE: Routes (Flights) and Hubs (Speculation, News and Discussion)
Dec 13, 2013, 10:26 am
#136
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: May 2001
Location: LAX; AA EXP, MM; HH Gold
Posts: 31,789
IMO, if you're going to be in a joint venture, sharing revenues and profits, then you really should co-locate with the partners, and that would be at T-8. Now that AA is out of Ch 11, it would be nice to hear that AA and the Port Authority have agreed on the completion of T-8 so that BA and other OW airlines not at T-8 can move there.
Dec 13, 2013, 10:51 am
#137
Moderator: American AAdvantage, Signatures
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: London, England
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I stand corrected! You are right.
I agree that T8 would be a great place to bring in BA at a minimum, hopefully JL, CX and QF as well, though I think for BA to come to T8 they would have to finish construction and build out a few more long-haul gates and some additional lounge space. I'm not even sure how many T8 gates could accommodate a 747, and none have twin jetways. With BA being much less tied into T7 than I previously thought, it seems that such planning would need to begin rather soon.
IMO, if you're going to be in a joint venture, sharing revenues and profits, then you really should co-locate with the partners, and that would be at T-8. Now that AA is out of Ch 11, it would be nice to hear that AA and the Port Authority have agreed on the completion of T-8 so that BA and other OW airlines not at T-8 can move there.
Dec 13, 2013, 10:56 am
#138
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: NYC
Programs: AA EXP, B6 Mosaic, UA Platinum, others
Posts: 1,270
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-0...-terminal.html
Thanks. Fixed.
Dec 13, 2013, 10:59 am
#139
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: NYC
Programs: AA EXP, B6 Mosaic, UA Platinum, others
Posts: 1,270
I stand corrected! You are right.
I agree that T8 would be a great place to bring in BA at a minimum, hopefully JL, CX and QF as well, though I think for BA to come to T8 they would have to finish construction and build out a few more long-haul gates and some additional lounge space. I'm not even sure how many T8 gates could accommodate a 747, and none have twin jetways. With BA being much less tied into T7 than I previously thought, it seems that such planning would need to begin rather soon.
I agree that T8 would be a great place to bring in BA at a minimum, hopefully JL, CX and QF as well, though I think for BA to come to T8 they would have to finish construction and build out a few more long-haul gates and some additional lounge space. I'm not even sure how many T8 gates could accommodate a 747, and none have twin jetways. With BA being much less tied into T7 than I previously thought, it seems that such planning would need to begin rather soon.
I suspect IAG would see some benefits from consolidating all their brands at one place too. That place could be T7, but T8 makes some sense as long as logistical challenges around 388 and 747s could be addressed.
Dec 13, 2013, 11:23 am
#140
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: May 2001
Location: LAX; AA EXP, MM; HH Gold
Posts: 31,789
I agree that T8 would be a great place to bring in BA at a minimum, hopefully JL, CX and QF as well, though I think for BA to come to T8 they would have to finish construction and build out a few more long-haul gates and some additional lounge space. I'm not even sure how many T8 gates could accommodate a 747, and none have twin jetways. With BA being much less tied into T7 than I previously thought, it seems that such planning would need to begin rather soon.
Dual jetbridges? Those wouldn't take several years to buy and install.
As for timing, no way it could be built in 18-24 months, so BA would need to sign some short-term lease extensions on T-7 to tide it over until construction was finished.
A380 gates require some construction at almost every airport, so the design of the remaining unbuilt portion of T-8 would certainly account for them.
Dec 13, 2013, 11:34 am
#141
Moderator: American AAdvantage, Signatures
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: London, England
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Posts: 9,765
The plan in 1999 was that all 38 mainline gates at T-8 would be 777/747-capable, but I don't think the post-September 11 revisions preserved that. All gates in B (1-16) are widebody gates. 747s have the same wingspan as 77Ws, so they'll fit. Besides, if ground were broken today, the rest of T-8 wouldn't be finished until 2016-17, at the earliest. How many 747s will still be flying for BA then?
Dual jetbridges? Those wouldn't take several years to buy and install.
As for timing, no way it could be built in 18-24 months, so BA would need to sign some short-term lease extensions on T-7 to tide it over until construction was finished.
A380 gates require some construction at almost every airport, so the design of the remaining unbuilt portion of T-8 would certainly account for them.
Dual jetbridges? Those wouldn't take several years to buy and install.
As for timing, no way it could be built in 18-24 months, so BA would need to sign some short-term lease extensions on T-7 to tide it over until construction was finished.
A380 gates require some construction at almost every airport, so the design of the remaining unbuilt portion of T-8 would certainly account for them.
Dec 13, 2013, 1:06 pm
#142
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Berkeley, CA
Posts: 2,290
AIUI a fair bit of planning had already been done, though put on hold due to the bankruptcy. No doubt an important topic of conversation for IAG and the new management...
Dec 13, 2013, 1:07 pm
#143
Join Date: Jan 2011
Programs: One World Emerald/AA Executive Platinum/Qantas Gold/United Premier Gold/most USA airlines
Posts: 64
I live near Boise ID (BOI) which currently has no AA or One World airline...but does have USAir. I have 500K miles on AA and over 200K on a One World airline (QF)...and it has been difficult to use these. What is the likelihood that USAir might pull out like AA did a few years ago?
If not mistaken, BOI was one of those places that had AA service cut back when they were getting rid of less profitable routes. Before the merger, I've not heard of USAir having any plans to reduce flights from BOI, so is there any reason to think there will be any similar reductions? I'm excited about the possibility of being able to begin and end from here all on the same airline.
If not mistaken, BOI was one of those places that had AA service cut back when they were getting rid of less profitable routes. Before the merger, I've not heard of USAir having any plans to reduce flights from BOI, so is there any reason to think there will be any similar reductions? I'm excited about the possibility of being able to begin and end from here all on the same airline.
Dec 13, 2013, 1:44 pm
#144
Join Date: Oct 2012
Programs: AA: EXP/5.2mm
Posts: 251
Here's my thoughts:
JFK:
T8 is a solid facility by JFK standards, and while AA is smaller than B6 and DL, the injection of poorly utilized US slots and potentially new wide bodies should permit some growth internationally here. NYC-area is probably the best market in the US for paid C/F traffic too.
Should invest in T8 further, making it the OneWorld "under one roof" site to further support IAG/BA partnership.
If they're smart, they'll try and kill UA on JFK-LAX -- United's presence at JFK is basically zilch aside from P.S., and if JFK-LAX goes, perhaps they and VA/B6 can make JFK-SFO unprofitable enough to get UA to rebase P.S. out of EWR and grab some slots. The demolition of T7 could then commence.
ORD
Again, if they want to get aggressive with United, here's a great place to do it. They're very well positioned for both Asia and Europe, have both strong O&D and connecting marketplace, and can probably chip away at those valuable corporate contracts.
DFW
Fortress hub. Great to see expansion to S. Korea and Hong Kong in 2014, would love to see additional international growth out of here. Perhaps an opportunity with the 788s to try some service to the S. Pacific, although Qantas is a mess. Solid, profitable growth here.
MIA
Gateway to the Americas, concentrate on building the most comprehensive non-stop network to every destination south of the US. Tie that into enough US destinations, and you've got a super competitive 1-stop story there. Domestic connecting in the southeast should shift towards CLT.
LAX
It's a solid O&D market with great corporate contracts for C&F. But the competition is fierce and the facilities need investment and better scheduling/aircraft. More Asia service a must, especially with lie-flats. Can probably de-emphasize the domestic connecting market in favor of PHX, and concentrate on int'l. Should consider OneWorld terminal consolidation here if possible.
PHL
Solid marketplace but a small local market. Make this your connecting point for the northeast instead of LGA or JFK. Keep enough international but don't try and nail every B and C tier European market like they have now, but instead save that for...
CLT
Great market, great position. Some local O&D from finance, but here's where you roll up the entire southeast in a non-constrained location with good weather. It's a bit far for the 752s, but those were crappy economics anyway. Attack Delta's international connecting traffic in ATL and United's dismal IAD with reliable service to Europe. Leave the Americas to MIA. Leave Asia to ORD/DFW. And let JFK concentrate on pure O&D and a more premium mix of seating.
PHX
Shrink down to a focus city or use for western connecting traffic. The question is whether you can make LAX work. If you can, you really don't need PHX and can de-hub by 2016.
Not a hub, but special mention: LGA
If LGA is going to work, you need a new terminal ASAP. DL is doing great stuff with their facility. The Shuttle is a great service, but kinda a one-off. Probably need to fight UA here first, then figure out how to match DL. LGA-ORD is an obvious place to start.
JFK:
T8 is a solid facility by JFK standards, and while AA is smaller than B6 and DL, the injection of poorly utilized US slots and potentially new wide bodies should permit some growth internationally here. NYC-area is probably the best market in the US for paid C/F traffic too.
Should invest in T8 further, making it the OneWorld "under one roof" site to further support IAG/BA partnership.
If they're smart, they'll try and kill UA on JFK-LAX -- United's presence at JFK is basically zilch aside from P.S., and if JFK-LAX goes, perhaps they and VA/B6 can make JFK-SFO unprofitable enough to get UA to rebase P.S. out of EWR and grab some slots. The demolition of T7 could then commence.
ORD
Again, if they want to get aggressive with United, here's a great place to do it. They're very well positioned for both Asia and Europe, have both strong O&D and connecting marketplace, and can probably chip away at those valuable corporate contracts.
DFW
Fortress hub. Great to see expansion to S. Korea and Hong Kong in 2014, would love to see additional international growth out of here. Perhaps an opportunity with the 788s to try some service to the S. Pacific, although Qantas is a mess. Solid, profitable growth here.
MIA
Gateway to the Americas, concentrate on building the most comprehensive non-stop network to every destination south of the US. Tie that into enough US destinations, and you've got a super competitive 1-stop story there. Domestic connecting in the southeast should shift towards CLT.
LAX
It's a solid O&D market with great corporate contracts for C&F. But the competition is fierce and the facilities need investment and better scheduling/aircraft. More Asia service a must, especially with lie-flats. Can probably de-emphasize the domestic connecting market in favor of PHX, and concentrate on int'l. Should consider OneWorld terminal consolidation here if possible.
PHL
Solid marketplace but a small local market. Make this your connecting point for the northeast instead of LGA or JFK. Keep enough international but don't try and nail every B and C tier European market like they have now, but instead save that for...
CLT
Great market, great position. Some local O&D from finance, but here's where you roll up the entire southeast in a non-constrained location with good weather. It's a bit far for the 752s, but those were crappy economics anyway. Attack Delta's international connecting traffic in ATL and United's dismal IAD with reliable service to Europe. Leave the Americas to MIA. Leave Asia to ORD/DFW. And let JFK concentrate on pure O&D and a more premium mix of seating.
PHX
Shrink down to a focus city or use for western connecting traffic. The question is whether you can make LAX work. If you can, you really don't need PHX and can de-hub by 2016.
Not a hub, but special mention: LGA
If LGA is going to work, you need a new terminal ASAP. DL is doing great stuff with their facility. The Shuttle is a great service, but kinda a one-off. Probably need to fight UA here first, then figure out how to match DL. LGA-ORD is an obvious place to start.
Dec 13, 2013, 5:02 pm
#145
Join Date: Jun 2006
Programs: DL DM, US CP
Posts: 237
Here's my thoughts:
JFK:
T8 is a solid facility by JFK standards, and while AA is smaller than B6 and DL, the injection of poorly utilized US slots and potentially new wide bodies should permit some growth internationally here. NYC-area is probably the best market in the US for paid C/F traffic too.
Should invest in T8 further, making it the OneWorld "under one roof" site to further support IAG/BA partnership.
If they're smart, they'll try and kill UA on JFK-LAX -- United's presence at JFK is basically zilch aside from P.S., and if JFK-LAX goes, perhaps they and VA/B6 can make JFK-SFO unprofitable enough to get UA to rebase P.S. out of EWR and grab some slots. The demolition of T7 could then commence.
ORD
Again, if they want to get aggressive with United, here's a great place to do it. They're very well positioned for both Asia and Europe, have both strong O&D and connecting marketplace, and can probably chip away at those valuable corporate contracts.
DFW
Fortress hub. Great to see expansion to S. Korea and Hong Kong in 2014, would love to see additional international growth out of here. Perhaps an opportunity with the 788s to try some service to the S. Pacific, although Qantas is a mess. Solid, profitable growth here.
MIA
Gateway to the Americas, concentrate on building the most comprehensive non-stop network to every destination south of the US. Tie that into enough US destinations, and you've got a super competitive 1-stop story there. Domestic connecting in the southeast should shift towards CLT.
LAX
It's a solid O&D market with great corporate contracts for C&F. But the competition is fierce and the facilities need investment and better scheduling/aircraft. More Asia service a must, especially with lie-flats. Can probably de-emphasize the domestic connecting market in favor of PHX, and concentrate on int'l. Should consider OneWorld terminal consolidation here if possible.
PHL
Solid marketplace but a small local market. Make this your connecting point for the northeast instead of LGA or JFK. Keep enough international but don't try and nail every B and C tier European market like they have now, but instead save that for...
CLT
Great market, great position. Some local O&D from finance, but here's where you roll up the entire southeast in a non-constrained location with good weather. It's a bit far for the 752s, but those were crappy economics anyway. Attack Delta's international connecting traffic in ATL and United's dismal IAD with reliable service to Europe. Leave the Americas to MIA. Leave Asia to ORD/DFW. And let JFK concentrate on pure O&D and a more premium mix of seating.
PHX
Shrink down to a focus city or use for western connecting traffic. The question is whether you can make LAX work. If you can, you really don't need PHX and can de-hub by 2016.
Not a hub, but special mention: LGA
If LGA is going to work, you need a new terminal ASAP. DL is doing great stuff with their facility. The Shuttle is a great service, but kinda a one-off. Probably need to fight UA here first, then figure out how to match DL. LGA-ORD is an obvious place to start.
JFK:
T8 is a solid facility by JFK standards, and while AA is smaller than B6 and DL, the injection of poorly utilized US slots and potentially new wide bodies should permit some growth internationally here. NYC-area is probably the best market in the US for paid C/F traffic too.
Should invest in T8 further, making it the OneWorld "under one roof" site to further support IAG/BA partnership.
If they're smart, they'll try and kill UA on JFK-LAX -- United's presence at JFK is basically zilch aside from P.S., and if JFK-LAX goes, perhaps they and VA/B6 can make JFK-SFO unprofitable enough to get UA to rebase P.S. out of EWR and grab some slots. The demolition of T7 could then commence.
ORD
Again, if they want to get aggressive with United, here's a great place to do it. They're very well positioned for both Asia and Europe, have both strong O&D and connecting marketplace, and can probably chip away at those valuable corporate contracts.
DFW
Fortress hub. Great to see expansion to S. Korea and Hong Kong in 2014, would love to see additional international growth out of here. Perhaps an opportunity with the 788s to try some service to the S. Pacific, although Qantas is a mess. Solid, profitable growth here.
MIA
Gateway to the Americas, concentrate on building the most comprehensive non-stop network to every destination south of the US. Tie that into enough US destinations, and you've got a super competitive 1-stop story there. Domestic connecting in the southeast should shift towards CLT.
LAX
It's a solid O&D market with great corporate contracts for C&F. But the competition is fierce and the facilities need investment and better scheduling/aircraft. More Asia service a must, especially with lie-flats. Can probably de-emphasize the domestic connecting market in favor of PHX, and concentrate on int'l. Should consider OneWorld terminal consolidation here if possible.
PHL
Solid marketplace but a small local market. Make this your connecting point for the northeast instead of LGA or JFK. Keep enough international but don't try and nail every B and C tier European market like they have now, but instead save that for...
CLT
Great market, great position. Some local O&D from finance, but here's where you roll up the entire southeast in a non-constrained location with good weather. It's a bit far for the 752s, but those were crappy economics anyway. Attack Delta's international connecting traffic in ATL and United's dismal IAD with reliable service to Europe. Leave the Americas to MIA. Leave Asia to ORD/DFW. And let JFK concentrate on pure O&D and a more premium mix of seating.
PHX
Shrink down to a focus city or use for western connecting traffic. The question is whether you can make LAX work. If you can, you really don't need PHX and can de-hub by 2016.
Not a hub, but special mention: LGA
If LGA is going to work, you need a new terminal ASAP. DL is doing great stuff with their facility. The Shuttle is a great service, but kinda a one-off. Probably need to fight UA here first, then figure out how to match DL. LGA-ORD is an obvious place to start.
I realize PHX is definitely going to see a reduction in service, but its not going to be totally dehubbed like CLE/MEM/CVG. PHX has a lot more O&D (albeit mostly leisure traffic) traffic than those and a sizable local population that's almost entirely reliant on air travel to get out of the state (no trains, and by car LA and SD are 5 hours away and Vegas is about 6) and except for the summer (when locals fleeing the scene take over for tourist traffic) its a very popular tourist destination. Furthermore, LAX can't accommodate all of the connecting traffic that is currently routed through PHX (AA can't even currently fit the few US flights ex-LAX into T4 as it is). It would have to move a lot of that traffic to DFW if they were going to dehub and that would completely ignore the large passenger base in the city itself. I could see it becoming more like DEN or even SLC, but not completely dehubbed.
Dec 13, 2013, 6:46 pm
#146
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Los Angeles
Programs: AA LT Gold
Posts: 3,646
I had to travel from SAN to cities in Mexico (GDL for example) for work a lot this year. The best connections were on US through PHX. I thought the airport is easy to navigate (I like walking) and immigrations/customs was super quick.
With AA I had to go all the way to DFW which added 2-3hrs to the travel time. AS from LAX has limited service. Nothing like US from PHX
With AA I had to go all the way to DFW which added 2-3hrs to the travel time. AS from LAX has limited service. Nothing like US from PHX
Dec 13, 2013, 7:46 pm
#147
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: NYC
Programs: AA EXP, B6 Mosaic, UA Platinum, others
Posts: 1,270
I realize PHX is definitely going to see a reduction in service, but its not going to be totally dehubbed like CLE/MEM/CVG. PHX has a lot more O&D (albeit mostly leisure traffic) traffic than those and a sizable local population that's almost entirely reliant on air travel to get out of the state (no trains, and by car LA and SD are 5 hours away and Vegas is about 6) and except for the summer (when locals fleeing the scene take over for tourist traffic) its a very popular tourist destination. Furthermore, LAX can't accommodate all of the connecting traffic that is currently routed through PHX (AA can't even currently fit the few US flights ex-LAX into T4 as it is). It would have to move a lot of that traffic to DFW if they were going to dehub and that would completely ignore the large passenger base in the city itself. I could see it becoming more like DEN or even SLC, but not completely dehubbed.
Population-wise, it's bigger than Cleveland or Minneapolis, but leisure-only destinations are tough to justify big investment. From a investment perspective, AA would be way better off making a play for Boston (#6 MSA) and putting the PHX market into harvest mode.
Dec 13, 2013, 8:02 pm
#148
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Usually in SAN or Central Europe.
Programs: AA:EXP/1MM. Accor/Radisson:Silver; HH:Gold; ICH:Plt Amb.
Posts: 22,307
Contrary to what is imagined, ORD is actually closer in air miles to most Western European cities than CLT! (although by looking at a Mercator map, it just doesn't appear to be so). Then there is the 3rd strongest O&D market in the country. And and someone has already pointed out, AA has the larger share of the lucrative O&D market in the metro.
It just doesn't make sense to build up international at PHL when a stronger market is available elsewhere.
It just doesn't make sense to build up international at PHL when a stronger market is available elsewhere.
As for CLT. There will still be flights to Europe. I expect to see at least two flights to LHR. FRA (while no longer having Star feed) will likely stay as well. There is a lot of miltary traffic on that flight. MAD will now have OW feed on both ends. And I see a possibilty for CLT-DUS to start for that very same reason. The area around DUS has the highest population concentration in Germany. CDG, FCO, DUB, and maybe MAN will probably be flown in the spring/summer months. Coach tickets to Europe (including the connecting traffic) are not cheap anymore, even in the wintertime. If the demand is there, then why not connect them through CLT. Which will have the lowest hub costs in the network.
Last edited by Fanjet; Dec 13, 2013 at 8:11 pm
Dec 13, 2013, 8:20 pm
#149
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: New York
Programs: AA EXP 1.0mm, not sure where I am with hotels these days
Posts: 2,795
Edit - fwaaa responded to lease comment. I posted before reading.
Last edited by george 3; Dec 13, 2013 at 8:27 pm
Dec 13, 2013, 8:21 pm
#150
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: san clemente ca
Programs: AA,DL
Posts: 374
People that Say Phx is going can be shifted over to DFW Are obviously not from the west coast..
I like mileage runs but when I'm traveling for business or Leisure on a tight scedual or a weekend trip I can't afford to travel from Lax to most places in the western US Tru Dal. Ill be back tracking huge for most destinations what a joke..
AA at lax can't even even absorb the Small US operation and will only be left with on gate in T-3..
If AA give up Phx they give up any hope of have a presence on the west coast besides what they have now. And if AS and AA were to lose there partnership it will be really a pain to fly around this half of the country..
I like mileage runs but when I'm traveling for business or Leisure on a tight scedual or a weekend trip I can't afford to travel from Lax to most places in the western US Tru Dal. Ill be back tracking huge for most destinations what a joke..
AA at lax can't even even absorb the Small US operation and will only be left with on gate in T-3..
If AA give up Phx they give up any hope of have a presence on the west coast besides what they have now. And if AS and AA were to lose there partnership it will be really a pain to fly around this half of the country..