ellinj

USAA is a very well respected insurance company, I hope calling the new airline USAA does not stick.

JPG3392

I wonder if CLT to DUS (on AA or AB) would make sense as an alternative. Though Frankfurt is an important business destination, the switch of alliances means that connecting flights within the alliance to other German cities and to cities in CH and A will be more readily available in DUS than in FRA.

GTITAN

Unlikely, CLT is as someone else noted, very, very efficient and useful. May CLT shrink some, that's possible, but one would not switch traffic from CLT to RDU.

Safe Travels

oldsmoboi

But now they they are no longer code-sharing with LH...?

PWMTrav

There are still possibilities. If the O&D at FRA wouldn't be enough, or if they don't want to compete at LH's hubs there's always codesharing with AB, or feeding their hubs at TXL/DUS. I think AB also has a presence at MUC.

ty97

There's also the possibility of keeping CLT-FRA but right sizing the plane (if needed) as cross fleeting or new aircraft arrive. The AA 763, for example, currently has 73 less seats than the US 333 (218 vs 291) and that will may reduce further when AA refurbs the 763 J seats.

And the 787s start coming on line in (late?) 2014 as well.

FWAAA

That's true, but how many of the German business executives (the ones in Germany who travel to NC or the CLT region) are loyal to LH/Star Alliance and how many are willing to switch to Oneworld? My WAG answers are 1. Most and 2. Almost None.

Why? NC may not be their only business travel. They might actually travel all over the world, and LH/Star may be their preferred carrier/alliance. Perhaps they put up with US from FRA because US was in Star.

The NC-based US citizen employees of those companies? Might be easier to get them to stay with new AA, but the real question is from which side of the ocean do most of the high-dollar, high-yielding customers originate? I have no idea. CLT already has a flight from MUC on LH, right? I wouldn't be surprised to see LH begin FRA-CLT as well.

dtremit

They're seasonal, so they may not be included on the map at this time of year.

Agree with others that shifting to CLT-DUS might make a lot of sense. Flyers actually in FRA are probably very loyal to LH/*A.

DUS is only 120mi away, so it's equally well positioned for many of the other cities in that part of Germany -- and thanks to rail connections, it's often an easy alternative for passengers in Belgium and the Netherlands. And, of course, it's an AB hub.

Sure, there are some routes that are better through DFW (though BOS-AUS isn't one; the CLT and DFW connections are equidistant). But there are others that are better through CLT that AA serves through DFW today -- MSY-BOS, say, or OKC-ATL. And remember, CLT is a cheaper facility.

Almost anything that would route better through ORD is already being routed through PHL; US fare rules make sure of that.

MAH4546

In terms of destinations, CLT will lose, easily, more than half if not three-fourths of it's international routes, but domestic will largely remain in tact. It's just capacity will be cut significantly. There is a lot of Northeast, California and Florida capacity right now that feeds each other via CLT. It's low-yield junk traffic that AA's new cost structure can't support.

lhl12

If that "low yield junk traffic that AA's new cost structure can't support" goes away from new AA, then who will take over that traffic and on what routes? I presume UA and DL wouldn't qualify, so that leaves Southwest and JetBlue, presumably. What routes will they start flying that they don't presently fly, to carry that traffic?

ty97

I can't speak knowledgeably to yields on Northeast to Florida routes, but it is definitely a competitive market in general, with a lot of LCCs that offer various [Northeast City] to [Florida City] non-stop routes which presumably drive fare competition.

Airtran, Allegiant, Frontier, Jetlue, Southwest, and Spirit all run routes between Northeast (and Midwest) cities and Florida.

Upgraded!

I think that CLT will lose mostly int'l flights, particularly those to *A cities. I also think that CLT-LHR is in mortal danger, since RDU is less than 150mi away and won't be losing its LHR flight any time soon. Perhaps that flight will see a larger aircraft, though. Definitely some cuts to LAX - with JFK and MIA having so many LAX flights, and RDU having one too, I just don't see US supporting a half-dozen dailies. Same with SFO.

PHL makes sense to keep as a hub for those smaller East Coast cities which don't have much O/D traffic from NYC. Won't be taking the Europe connections from ORD, though, since ORD has more O/D traffic. It wouldn't shock me if PHL saw a few transcon cuts to LAX/SFO since some will invariably go to JFK. PHL-SEA could be in danger as well.

Doubt there will really be much ORD cutting. Not only is it the only midwestern hub, it's also the country's third largest metro area. Perhaps some of the midwestern destinations served by DFW and ORD could see some redistribution to PHL flights (IND, MCI, ICT, OKC, TUL) and I would definitely expect to see an increase in PHL-AUS.

DCdeacon

The RDU-LHR flight really should have no bearing on the CLT-LHR flight. The RDU flight is all local traffic...nobody connects to RDU to fly to LHR. The CLT-LHR flight will live and die based on connecting traffic. With LHR being a huge Oneworld hub, I think it has a decent chance.

ty97

US managed to sustain CLT-LHR prior to joining OW. I can't see why the flight wouldn't be sustainable (and flourish) after US joins OW. The connecting traffic that used to fly CLT-FRA-ZZZ (connecting to LH) will now fly CLT-LHR-ZZZ (connecting to BA)

ty97

If I could count the number of times AA.com has suggested that I fly ORD-RDU-LHR or NYC-RDU-LHR, for cheaper than the non-stop option to LHR ...... I have politely declined each time