ARCHIVE: Routes (Flights) and Hubs (Speculation, News and Discussion)
#122
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: BOS
Programs: AA EXP/2MM, HH Gold, MR Plat, Nat'l Exec Elite
Posts: 5,995
#123
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: PIT
Posts: 759
I'm aware of what the market sizes are Today. I'm addressing Future expansion "Speculation" from PHL - Total passengers/flights, including a significant increase in connecting OW passengers.
#124
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: May 2001
Location: LAX; AA EXP, MM; HH Gold
Posts: 31,789
It does, however, make more sense to concentrate LAX and NYC on O&D and INTL. That leaves a lot of room for PHX to serve regional traffic out west (and its own O&D, which is significant). As for DCA, no way that's too close to call - that's an important city to any airline and the only way it shrinks is if the new AA needs cash. PHL is already a fortress - even if you want to move its INTL traffic to NYC, there's still way too much O&D and connecting traffic to shift anywhere else.
If anything shrinks, it's rationalizing LGA/JFK - concentrate on O&D and INTL, and leave the domestic east to PHL/CLT. In addition, focus regional traffic at PHX and move INTL to LAX/DFW.
I could see shrinking LGA or JFK to focus on INTL and O&D, but that other traffic has to go to PHL.
If anything shrinks, it's rationalizing LGA/JFK - concentrate on O&D and INTL, and leave the domestic east to PHL/CLT. In addition, focus regional traffic at PHX and move INTL to LAX/DFW.
I could see shrinking LGA or JFK to focus on INTL and O&D, but that other traffic has to go to PHL.
Shrink LGA or JFK? New AA is already a very distant second to DL at LGA and a distant third at JFK. AA has not been concentrating on domestic connecting traffic at either airport.
For DC-area fliers, IAD and DCA are both Star Alliance hubs, so it would be very difficult for someone based there to avoid Star Alliance. DCA being a domestic hub and IAD international it seems like it's the best setup for someone who travels a lot both domestically and internationally. With US merging with AA and moving to OneWorld, you end up with a Star Alliance hub at IAD and OneWorld at DCA. So, a DC-based flier might be torn to pick what alliance to stick to. Unfortunately, AS is of no help here since it bridges OW and ST carriers but no Star Alliance.
The comment about UA is really puzzling. New AA has lower costs than UA and has been poaching HVFs and revenue from UA since AA filed for Ch 11 two years ago. Smisek at UA has been flailing in a desperate attempt to reduce the bleeding and so far, has not found the recipe. Not since the 1985 UA pilot strike or the 2000 Summer from Hell has UA been as vulnerable to AA, and if anything, AA is poised for growth at ORD. Small RJs are being replaced by 76-seat E175s and with A319s on the way, small mainline planes could also return.
Miami is the number one O&D market to Brazil, followed by NYC and then MCO. As South America transitions to complete open skies, I see MIA traffic expanding substantially. MIA has as much domestic O&D as does CLT. Add in the many multiples of international O&D compared to CLT, and the future looks bright for MIA.
CLT is an inexpensive airport with very low costs per enplaned passenger, but GRU/GIG-CLT-MCO isn't as efficient as Brazil-MIA-MCO.
Shrink at JFK, LGA or ORD? Advocates for this merger harped on AA's inability to secure new (or even retain older) corporate contracts unless it merged with US. Perhaps it's possible that AA's only weaknesses in this area were the lack of a SE connecting hub in CLT and big hubs at PHL and DCA. But it's also possible that those elusive corporate contracts also depend upon a sizable presence in the big cities where most business travel originates or arrives, and those include NYC and CHI.
#125
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: los angeles, calif.
Programs: Alaska Airlines Gold MVP
Posts: 7,170
#126
Join Date: Apr 2000
Location: Long Island, NY
Programs: CoFounder and Chairman, FFOCUS (Frequent Flyers Organized and concerned about Unacceptable Service.
Posts: 1,341
I brought this up on another board, but wonder what you all think about the new AA at my home airport, ISP. Right now, there are 4 props to PHL and 2 Satan's Chariots (read CRJ-200) to DCA. I would hope for a couple of 170 or 175 runs a day to ORD or CLT, with WN drawing down ISP..which they don't need any more now that they have expanded presence at LGA.
While I understand not wanting to draw traffic away from NYC, I think there's an opportunity for the new AA at ISP. Wishful thinking perhaps, but what the heck?
While I understand not wanting to draw traffic away from NYC, I think there's an opportunity for the new AA at ISP. Wishful thinking perhaps, but what the heck?
#127
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: The views I express here are not necessarily supported by any airline or codeshare partners, nor do I represent their views and/or opinions. They are my own OPINIONS dont like them dont read them.....
Posts: 1,615
Charlotte will grow both domestically and internationally.
I think a few things will happen. Lufthansa will likely stop their flight as there will be no feed with Star going bye bye. US will not have it's traditional 2 flights to FRA in the summer but one. I would say CLT either starts CLT to Berlin or AirBerlin comes in. I could see Iberia starting service here. Definitely look for BA to start a flight. You just may see two flights on US to LHR.
There is a lot of construction at the CLT airport and it is a big mess now and will be for a while, but the city is expanding and making improvements to the airport that positions them to grow. And Doug is a fan of the CLT airport and Charlotte area. And why not. The city knows the importance of a hub and caters to US Airways on many levels. One is keeping cost down
I think a few things will happen. Lufthansa will likely stop their flight as there will be no feed with Star going bye bye. US will not have it's traditional 2 flights to FRA in the summer but one. I would say CLT either starts CLT to Berlin or AirBerlin comes in. I could see Iberia starting service here. Definitely look for BA to start a flight. You just may see two flights on US to LHR.
There is a lot of construction at the CLT airport and it is a big mess now and will be for a while, but the city is expanding and making improvements to the airport that positions them to grow. And Doug is a fan of the CLT airport and Charlotte area. And why not. The city knows the importance of a hub and caters to US Airways on many levels. One is keeping cost down
#128
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: SEA
Posts: 3,955
I'm genuinely confused. What has AA been doing at JFK and LGA if not focusing on international flights and domestic O&D?
Shrink LGA or JFK? New AA is already a very distant second to DL at LGA and a distant third at JFK. AA has not been concentrating on domestic connecting traffic at either airport.
Shrink LGA or JFK? New AA is already a very distant second to DL at LGA and a distant third at JFK. AA has not been concentrating on domestic connecting traffic at either airport.
#129
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Winston Salem, NC USA
Posts: 1,074
This one is really confusing. Chicago has almost four times the domestic O&D of CLT and almost 2.5 times the domestic O&D of PHL. Chicago has several times more international O&D than CLT and PHL combined. From ORD, AA flies to PEK, PVG and NRT, five flights to London (between AA and BA) and a smattering of European cities, some of them seasonal. AA is planning to fly ORD-GRU next year.
The comment about UA is really puzzling. New AA has lower costs than UA and has been poaching HVFs and revenue from UA since AA filed for Ch 11 two years ago. Smisek at UA has been flailing in a desperate attempt to reduce the bleeding and so far, has not found the recipe. Not since the 1985 UA pilot strike or the 2000 Summer from Hell has UA been as vulnerable to AA, and if anything, AA is poised for growth at ORD. Small RJs are being replaced by 76-seat E175s and with A319s on the way, small mainline planes could also return..
The comment about UA is really puzzling. New AA has lower costs than UA and has been poaching HVFs and revenue from UA since AA filed for Ch 11 two years ago. Smisek at UA has been flailing in a desperate attempt to reduce the bleeding and so far, has not found the recipe. Not since the 1985 UA pilot strike or the 2000 Summer from Hell has UA been as vulnerable to AA, and if anything, AA is poised for growth at ORD. Small RJs are being replaced by 76-seat E175s and with A319s on the way, small mainline planes could also return..
It just doesn't make sense to build up international at PHL when a stronger market is available elsewhere.
#130
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Winston Salem, NC USA
Posts: 1,074
Charlotte will grow both domestically and internationally.
I think a few things will happen. Lufthansa will likely stop their flight as there will be no feed with Star going bye bye. US will not have it's traditional 2 flights to FRA in the summer but one. I would say CLT either starts CLT to Berlin or AirBerlin comes in. I could see Iberia starting service here. Definitely look for BA to start a flight. You just may see two flights on US to LHR.
There is a lot of construction at the CLT airport and it is a big mess now and will be for a while, but the city is expanding and making improvements to the airport that positions them to grow. And Doug is a fan of the CLT airport and Charlotte area. And why not. The city knows the importance of a hub and caters to US Airways on many levels. One is keeping cost down
I think a few things will happen. Lufthansa will likely stop their flight as there will be no feed with Star going bye bye. US will not have it's traditional 2 flights to FRA in the summer but one. I would say CLT either starts CLT to Berlin or AirBerlin comes in. I could see Iberia starting service here. Definitely look for BA to start a flight. You just may see two flights on US to LHR.
There is a lot of construction at the CLT airport and it is a big mess now and will be for a while, but the city is expanding and making improvements to the airport that positions them to grow. And Doug is a fan of the CLT airport and Charlotte area. And why not. The city knows the importance of a hub and caters to US Airways on many levels. One is keeping cost down
#131
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: CLT
Programs: AA EP, AA AC
Posts: 4,268
Well to anyone that flies out of CLT, I am sure we will not see a price reduction. The non-stop penalty is severe in these parts.
Safe Travels
Safe Travels
#132
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Winston Salem, NC USA
Posts: 1,074
ORD
One more reason I don't see a further retrenchment at ORD is all the Oneworld partners fly in there and depend on that feeder traffic.
BA
JAL
AirBerlin
Finnair
Iberia
Cathay Pacific
Qatar Airways
Royal Jordanian
Alaska
These airlines are NOT all at CLT, PHL, or even DFW.
BA
JAL
AirBerlin
Finnair
Iberia
Cathay Pacific
Qatar Airways
Royal Jordanian
Alaska
These airlines are NOT all at CLT, PHL, or even DFW.
#133
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: NYC
Programs: AA EXP, B6 Mosaic, UA Platinum, others
Posts: 1,270
Here's my thoughts:
JFK:
T8 is a solid facility by JFK standards, and while AA is smaller than B6 and DL, the injection of poorly utilized US slots and potentially new wide bodies should permit some growth internationally here. NYC-area is probably the best market in the US for paid C/F traffic too.
Should invest in T8 further, making it the OneWorld "under one roof" site to further support IAG/BA partnership.
If they're smart, they'll try and kill UA on JFK-LAX -- United's presence at JFK is basically zilch aside from P.S., and if JFK-LAX goes, perhaps they and VA/B6 can make JFK-SFO unprofitable enough to get UA to rebase P.S. out of EWR and grab some slots. The demolition of T7 could then commence.
ORD
Again, if they want to get aggressive with United, here's a great place to do it. They're very well positioned for both Asia and Europe, have both strong O&D and connecting marketplace, and can probably chip away at those valuable corporate contracts.
DFW
Fortress hub. Great to see expansion to S. Korea and Hong Kong in 2014, would love to see additional international growth out of here. Perhaps an opportunity with the 788s to try some service to the S. Pacific, although Qantas is a mess. Solid, profitable growth here.
MIA
Gateway to the Americas, concentrate on building the most comprehensive non-stop network to every destination south of the US. Tie that into enough US destinations, and you've got a super competitive 1-stop story there. Domestic connecting in the southeast should shift towards CLT.
LAX
It's a solid O&D market with great corporate contracts for C&F. But the competition is fierce and the facilities need investment and better scheduling/aircraft. More Asia service a must, especially with lie-flats. Can probably de-emphasize the domestic connecting market in favor of PHX, and concentrate on int'l. Should consider OneWorld terminal consolidation here if possible.
PHL
Solid marketplace but a small local market. Make this your connecting point for the northeast instead of LGA or JFK. Keep enough international but don't try and nail every B and C tier European market like they have now, but instead save that for...
CLT
Great market, great position. Some local O&D from finance, but here's where you roll up the entire southeast in a non-constrained location with good weather. It's a bit far for the 752s, but those were crappy economics anyway. Attack Delta's international connecting traffic in ATL and United's dismal IAD with reliable service to Europe. Leave the Americas to MIA. Leave Asia to ORD/DFW. And let JFK concentrate on pure O&D and a more premium mix of seating.
PHX
Shrink down to a focus city or use for western connecting traffic. The question is whether you can make LAX work. If you can, you really don't need PHX and can de-hub by 2016.
Not a hub, but special mention: LGA
If LGA is going to work, you need a new terminal ASAP. DL is doing great stuff with their facility. The Shuttle is a great service, but kinda a one-off. Probably need to fight UA here first, then figure out how to match DL. LGA-ORD is an obvious place to start.
JFK:
T8 is a solid facility by JFK standards, and while AA is smaller than B6 and DL, the injection of poorly utilized US slots and potentially new wide bodies should permit some growth internationally here. NYC-area is probably the best market in the US for paid C/F traffic too.
Should invest in T8 further, making it the OneWorld "under one roof" site to further support IAG/BA partnership.
If they're smart, they'll try and kill UA on JFK-LAX -- United's presence at JFK is basically zilch aside from P.S., and if JFK-LAX goes, perhaps they and VA/B6 can make JFK-SFO unprofitable enough to get UA to rebase P.S. out of EWR and grab some slots. The demolition of T7 could then commence.
ORD
Again, if they want to get aggressive with United, here's a great place to do it. They're very well positioned for both Asia and Europe, have both strong O&D and connecting marketplace, and can probably chip away at those valuable corporate contracts.
DFW
Fortress hub. Great to see expansion to S. Korea and Hong Kong in 2014, would love to see additional international growth out of here. Perhaps an opportunity with the 788s to try some service to the S. Pacific, although Qantas is a mess. Solid, profitable growth here.
MIA
Gateway to the Americas, concentrate on building the most comprehensive non-stop network to every destination south of the US. Tie that into enough US destinations, and you've got a super competitive 1-stop story there. Domestic connecting in the southeast should shift towards CLT.
LAX
It's a solid O&D market with great corporate contracts for C&F. But the competition is fierce and the facilities need investment and better scheduling/aircraft. More Asia service a must, especially with lie-flats. Can probably de-emphasize the domestic connecting market in favor of PHX, and concentrate on int'l. Should consider OneWorld terminal consolidation here if possible.
PHL
Solid marketplace but a small local market. Make this your connecting point for the northeast instead of LGA or JFK. Keep enough international but don't try and nail every B and C tier European market like they have now, but instead save that for...
CLT
Great market, great position. Some local O&D from finance, but here's where you roll up the entire southeast in a non-constrained location with good weather. It's a bit far for the 752s, but those were crappy economics anyway. Attack Delta's international connecting traffic in ATL and United's dismal IAD with reliable service to Europe. Leave the Americas to MIA. Leave Asia to ORD/DFW. And let JFK concentrate on pure O&D and a more premium mix of seating.
PHX
Shrink down to a focus city or use for western connecting traffic. The question is whether you can make LAX work. If you can, you really don't need PHX and can de-hub by 2016.
Not a hub, but special mention: LGA
If LGA is going to work, you need a new terminal ASAP. DL is doing great stuff with their facility. The Shuttle is a great service, but kinda a one-off. Probably need to fight UA here first, then figure out how to match DL. LGA-ORD is an obvious place to start.
Last edited by jmr50; Dec 13, 2013 at 10:55 am Reason: EWR isn't JFK.
#134
Moderator: American AAdvantage, Signatures
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: London, England
Programs: UA 1K, Hilton Diamond, IHG Diamond Ambassador, National Exec, AA EXP Emeritus
Posts: 9,765
JFK:
T8 is a solid facility by JFK standards, and while AA is smaller than B6 and DL, the injection of poorly utilized US slots and potentially new wide bodies should permit some growth internationally here. NYC-area is probably the best market in the US for paid C/F traffic too.
Should invest in T8 further, making it the OneWorld "under one roof" site to further support IAG/BA partnership.
If they're smart, they'll try and kill UA on JFK-LAX -- United's presence at EWR is basically zilch aside from P.S., and if JFK-LAX goes, perhaps they and VA/B6 can make JFK-SFO unprofitable enough to get UA to rebase P.S. out of EWR and grab some slots. The demolition of T7 could then commence.
T8 is a solid facility by JFK standards, and while AA is smaller than B6 and DL, the injection of poorly utilized US slots and potentially new wide bodies should permit some growth internationally here. NYC-area is probably the best market in the US for paid C/F traffic too.
Should invest in T8 further, making it the OneWorld "under one roof" site to further support IAG/BA partnership.
If they're smart, they'll try and kill UA on JFK-LAX -- United's presence at EWR is basically zilch aside from P.S., and if JFK-LAX goes, perhaps they and VA/B6 can make JFK-SFO unprofitable enough to get UA to rebase P.S. out of EWR and grab some slots. The demolition of T7 could then commence.
#135
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: SFO/OAK/SJC
Programs: AA LT PLT, 2.15 million miles; Priority Club PLT
Posts: 987
OAK to anywhere new. OAK-DFW or OAK-ORD or OAK-LAX ideally.