mathlete

At first I thought "if AA expects the upgrade to clear so it offers LFBUs, why not just clear the elite in the first place?"

Then I remembered that AA's computer systems, like most to be fair, are probably a patchwork of code written at different times for different purposes. The algorithm and code used to decide whether or not to offer a LFBU is separate from that used to decide when to upgrade elites. Sure, in a perfect world, they'd be in complete harmony, but it's not cost effective, I'm sure, to synchronize them now.

gemac

We request a window and an aisle, as we believe it makes it easier to swap (window for window, aisle for aisle). We are normally assigned seats at opposite ends of the F cabin.

Mark_T

I think it is more basic than that.

The un-upgraded elites on the list represent the flexibility they have in case of unexpected events.

If they actually upgrade all the elites before they have to, then they have no 'float' left.

Most of the time this will work just fine and all the elites will get their upgrades, occasionally it won't and someone will get thrown to the wolves

We should remember that this is really the normal situation we are in for upgrades most of the time.

It is only in those cases where at T-24 they believe that they have an excess of seats over and above those needed for the upgrade list that there is any impact from the LFBU sales.

gemac

I understand this, but I would prefer that the LFBUs be the 'float'. It seems that it would not be hard to sell the LFBUs with the understanding that they will probably get the upgrade, but it will be determined at the gate, and AA reserves the right to keep them in their coach seat and not charge their credit card. That would fix this situation.

sukn

It makes little sense to "float" the elites in order to chase a few dollars from ma and pa kettle. While you many have no problem with this approach, I bet even you could come up with a more effective approach than AA.

EsquireFlyer

This is an excellent question. I don't think the IT answer is a sufficient justification.

AA seems to be following UA in this regard, and originally, UA also claimed that buy-ups were only offered if all elites were expected to clear (but apparently, not so certainly expected to clear that UA was willing to actually just clear them??). Even if you believed UA's claim, UA sold buy-ups before clearing EUAs, ensuring that in the event of last-minute F bookings, IRROP rebooks, etc., the additional F seats would come from denying "expected to clear" upgrades, rather than from $$ upsells, and that is clearly a policy decision. And that is where I think UA most clearly backstabs its elite flyers.

AFAIK, however, UA has stopped claiming that buy-ups are only offered if all elites were expected to clear, because that claim is no longer credible, after being publicly refuted numerous times on FT.

sukn

It is also important to note that as of this moment, AA's official presence (here or elsewhere) has yet to publicly address this concern.

mikeef

I'm pretty sure my wife requests to be at an opposite end of the cabin from me. But she has three eAAgles, so she gets anything she wants.

One would think that this would be the rational solution, wouldn't one?

Mike

Mark_T

I won't take offence at the 'even you' comment since we do not know each other

I suspect the logic is that selling a chance of something happening is a lot less likely to work than selling the upgrade itself.

Also, the elites are already the 'float' in the system on most flights right now, so to that extent nothing has changed.

Only time that isn't the case is when you see an empty upgrade list at the gate and that doesn't happen all that often, at least not on my flights.

We are not talking about all elites being held back on all flights in some attempt to make a few extra $$, this is after we've gone through the 100 hour window or previous upgrade inventory has been released and used by elites so we are actually only talking about those left on the list at the 24 hour point.

Even then it is only going to come into play if there are so few on the list that it appears that some seats would go out empty in F/J

So, for me at least, it represents a very small risk as there are too many conditions for it to affect many (any?) of the flights I am on.

As far as I can see, this is only a real issue for people who tend to request upgrades within 24 hours of departure and even then only to the extent that the flights they book usually have more empty seats than people on the list.

sukn

Here is the thing though, if these situations are truly that rare and if they truly represent a very small risk, let AA take the risk instead of placing it on their elites. Also the GLD window only opens at the 24-hr. mark, so they have zero chance of being upgraded prior to LFBUs being offered.

There are routes that go out routinely with empty seats in first, this is usually followed by route cancellations.

beerup

My impression of LFBU availability, like other areas controlled by RM, is that it is highly dynamic. The earliest LFBU could be offered now is 24hrs (OLCI)* but I could imagine there are often times when RM don't start offering them at T-24, even if they subsequently offer them closer to flight time. For flights where GLD upgrades clear right at the 24hr mark, they shouldn't be affected by LFBU.

*I guess if you check-in for a multi-leg trip, it is possible that you could be offered LFBU for a connecting flight more than 24hrs before that flight time. However, I have no idea if LFBU are offered earlier than T-24.

mvoight

This is wrong.
If they have upgrades to sell at T-24, then they have they should upgrade the elites first.

brp

Simply, yes. I know that there has been a whole lot of discussion about "OLCI at 24 hours" here, but I'm not sure why that's relevant. The upgrade system is still working off the original list for about another 21 hours after the check-in window is open. So, things should be processed off of that list prior to offering things for sale. Checking in and being added to the upgrade list should have no bearing.

Cheers.

brp

I've always found the assignment to be back-to-front based on our preferences, no matter what. We've always been in 6/6, or 6/5, or something like that, when they're open.

Cheers.

Mark_T

Ultimately I have to wonder just how much they make from the LFBU sales as it seems to be quite a motivator for them, but I do see why they are doing what they do.

They have all the data and I imagine they have been evaluating the lost revenue from unoccupied J/F seats when the wheels leave the ground so they would know just how much this process could be worth.

The point of check-in is the last easy opportunity they have to make a sale and the last point that they can deliver the full set of benefits that go along with say an F ticket like baggage for example which could be a factor in convincing someone to pay for the upgrade.

Sure, they could offer them at the gate but that would take time that the GA doesn't usually have and adds complications like what to do with someone who paid to check a bag but is now paying to be in F.

So they are forced to predict the seats that will go out unsold and use LFBU to monetize them but at the same time they are also trying to maintain some flexibility just in case of walk-ups or IRROPS.

They appear to believe that they need to offer LFBU via OLCI, not just kiosks at the airport, to get the sales they want.

They can't just process the upgrade queue as they would lose their flexibility.

They appear to have decided that they can't take money off non-elites on the hope of an upgrade then have to process refunds if they don't get it, or they believe that selling a possibility just isn't compelling, so they leave the elites on the list as their buffer.

Their gamble is that they get it wrong so infrequently that we don't get upset about it.

I don't disagree that this is not in the interests of the elites still on the list in the last 24 hours, but if they manage to hit the target better than 95% of the time then should we really be getting that excited about it?

Real question I guess is just how good are they?

95%+ and I have trouble getting bothered by it, <50% and I'd be getting angry I think.

So how good are they at doing this I wonder?

I imagine they had hoped that we wouldn't even notice it was happening