CloudsBelow

Doubt it highly. YOW is very well served to Europe and lucky to have 12-14 TATL 767s/week for most of the year. I realize Ottawa is certainly not a big-spender town, likely more suited to FI product, but AC/AP owns that city.
Agree the MAX-8 brings cities like Ottawa into contention, but FI won't start receiving these birds until 2018

PLeblond

I'm not sure how the 737MAX changes anything for FI as it relates to YOW. Unless you mean simply the fact they are increasing the size of their fleet?

nave888

I can't imagine YOW would have the same appeal as YEG for FI. YOW is within 45 minutes of YYZ and YUL by air, both of which offer connections to countless European destinations. YEG, on the other hand, has nothing, and requires a 3.5 hour flight to ORD, YYZ, or YUL to get anywhere (so a trip to europe from YEG usually starts on a morning YEG-YYZ flight, taking up the full day). Even YYC only offers FRA, LHR and AMS... The appeal of an easier trip to Europe is there, but in YOW, 45 minutes on an A320 to YYZ isn't a big deal...

CloudsBelow

Smaller gauge, significantly lower trip costs, reduced risk entering new markets.
Was thinking the MAX order would bring secondary markets lacking much/any TATL service (ie., not YOW) into KF’s plans (CVG, CLE, PIT perhaps?).

PLeblond

Interesting. operating costs of the 757s are rising, but at the age FI's fleet, you gotta figure the overhead is quite low. There would be a crossover point where a new 737-8 would cost (including financing/depreciation/etc.) would benefit. I was surprised to read that FI is saying the MAX "will be operated alongside with the Company’s current fleet of Boeing 757’s" as the newest one is pushing 15 years old.

Also, most of those cities already have 1 stop connection to most European cities via NYC, BOS, WAS, PHL , ORD, etc. It would make for an interesting analysis.

YoYUL

There can be more to it than that, including free advertising. Also, I can't understand why AC often no longer offer connections over YOW on their website, when one is actually possible. This also hurts YOW route viability. Look at what AC's dropped/reduced out of YOW in the past 5 years:
YHM - dropped even though you could easily fill 3-5 Q400s/day with some transit YOW feed (think of their YYZ obsession vs their YTZ disinterest back in the day)...if PD exercise their Q400 options, this and YUL-YHM, I can see PD doing, given they're pretty much maxed out on YTZ slots.
YQT - went seasonal, then dropped
YFB (this one never made any sense to begin with...why not a 3rd YWG frequency instead?).
YYG - reduced to summer-seasonal
YXE/YQR - reduced to summer-seasonal & even worse this summer became a YOW-YQR-YXE-YOW pattern...this is the trickle-down effect of 319s moving to Rouge.
YYC/YVR - capacity reduced from 3x to 2x in the winter (YYC & YVR have less capacity now than pre-CP merger days & YVR used to be 4x during the summer season.
YWG - reduced to 2x year-round on CRAs (used to operate with E90s & before that 737s/DC-9s = less capacity than 20 years ago)
YYZ - long gone are the days of 1/2 hourly service at peak times and no more late night YOW departures...why not even a late night CRJ to cater to late-night pax? For most of the year, Porter has better frenquency than AC (18 vs 16) and AC for a few years now has the latest ex-Toronto 1st departure of the day (at 0710) amongst PD, WS & AC...not exactly "Rapidair" if you have an early-morning meeting in Ottawa. Also, YOW has not had scheduled 321s in over a year, only the occasional sub (mainly to YYZ nowadays), whereas in the past YVR (both summer & winter) & YYZ (sometimes up to 5x/day) were both regular 321 routes.

DCA, YYT & YQM are the only 3 routes AC launched about 8 years ago at around the same time as FRA that have remained year-round. For YQM & YYT, it must be purely co-incidental that Porter provide AC within heavy competition on those routes. Nah that wouldn't have anything to do with it.

The YVR 767 this summer is the first route in a long time where AC has actually added capacity at YOW. Mind you they are adding a lot of new seasonal winter sun flights ex-YOW, including new Samana & TPA routes. I wonder whether the 2x/week summer FLL flights did well enough to return next year?

To the poster that mentioned YOW-SJC from years ago, it was launched a few months before the tech bubble burst and shouldn't have ever gone to SJC to begin with. It should have been SFO, but AC didn't want to pass transpac pax to their so-called 'partner' at UA's SFO hub. If it were to SFO, it would likely still be around today, if even on a seasonal basis.

FI will be at YOW eventually. It's only a matter of time as there's too much low hanging fruit to grab (and now AC's major reduction makes it all the more a business case). The price-sensitive leisure pax have virtually no choice out of YOW, save for a seasonal weekly to LGW on TS. Over 100,000 pax per year (at least, probably double that or more) drive/train/bus it from Ottawa to YUL each year, mostly the bargain hunters (FI's bread & butter) and virtually none of these pax are using AC at YUL. When the MAX comes, they'll even serve YWG and given they're not afraid to do 2x weekly, don't be surprised if you see them at YQR, YXE, YYT & YQB within the next decade.

YoYUL

YOW has a lot of J traffic on +8 hour trips due to J being gov't policy. The problem is a lot of gov't travel has been cut the past 2 years, whether it made sense or not.

I'm not saying FI will launch YOW tomorrow, but when the max arrives comes 2018, it's a no-brainer. Why is YOW 'lucky' to have up to 15 transatlantic flights per week vs. YYC having 4 or more per day + NRT? Are they lucky given Calgary is still (albeit not by much) still a smaller metro area than Ottawa? It's nothing more than geography, which folks in Edmonton can totally relate to...yet somehow FI thought YEG would be good to serve. Here's a perfect example of geography playing to YYC's advantage. How is it that YYC has seasonal service to CDG, yet YOW, which houses the 3rd largest francophone population in North America, has none? Gee I wonder if it's the close to 2000 seats per day to Paris out of YUL that has anything to do with it? It's mind-boggling that Transat don't fly YOW-CDG and instead are content on having Ottawa folks drive to YUL, whereas they could capture so much O&D by 'overflying' that AF bus to YUL, even on a summer-seasonal basis.

LETTERBOY

If an airline (AC, AF, or someone else) thought they could make money flying YOW-CDG, they'd do it. I think it has more to do with that than anything that's happening in YUL.

Jagboi

YOW seems overserved on TATL, no doubt do to the government given total paggenger numbers. YOW seems to have ~ 4.5 Million passengers per year, and YYC is close to 15M in the last 12 months.

It's also fairly easy to get to YUL (bus/train) for YOW originating passengers, there isn't another major airport with strong TATL service close to YYC.

CloudsBelow

The actions (and inactions) of airlines tell a different story.
A no-brainer? From not even on FI's radar to a no-brainer
Except TS did operate a weekly YOWCDG flight a few years ago .... And they cancelled it.

PlanetYYZ

And let's not forget most of the TS flights are not solely supported by YYC but rather most are routed YVR-YYC onward to Europe and most of the YYC pax on those particular flights are tourists heading to and going from the Rockies.

Hence most are summer seasonal.

why fly

Lets hope F1 can get earlier delivery of planes, to force AC to become competitive.

TheGreatestX

LOL. AC won't compete against FI. They'll retreat from the market with their tail between their legs.

PLeblond

Am I missing something??? FI is Icelandair right?

jcamp028

I wouldn't be surprised to see YWG get FI service before YOW ever does. YWG and surrounding area actually has a huge population with Icelandic heritage; I think a two or three times weekly service would sell well, and unlike most of FI's routes, you would have many customers actually staying in Iceland rather than just transiting.

My wife's family lives in YWG, and off the top of my head, I can think of at least 30 people who would use this service at the drop of a hat.