Biggie Fries

Absolutely. One needs to turn upside down everything we know about markets and supply and demand in general (and, in particular, what has happened with recent airline mergers and, in more particular, the touchingly frank e-mails and what-not from the current US CEO) to believe otherwise.

As someone who was pleasantly surprised by the filing, I am very buoyed on the political plane by the strange bedfellows (state AGs) who signed on with the DoJ. One has the whole gamut of "the current political atmosphere," and all objecting to the merger.

hillrider

Indeed. Incredible what a promise of $20m to the old CEO buys you; absolutely brilliant.

AFIK almost nobody in management has actually left AA; they could all get retention bonuses and stay on. It doesn't seem terminal to AA; the distraction of having to fight Parker's war with the DOJ would be much more costly and disruptive than cutting the losses and going back to plan A (standalone company after BK). AA has a bit over 3 months to be able formally walk away, and you bet that they're all currently busy dusting plan A.

Note that someone was able to negotiate no break-up fee into the agreement, which is usually something quite typical in a multibillion merger to provide an incentive to get it done (e.g. the $3b fee in the AT&T/T-Mobile case that AT&T had to pay); the fact that US/AA would not get regulatory approval may not have been such an unforeseen event.

Kootur

That plan is long since dead. The market forces have changed and industry analysts never thought it was a worthwhile plan anyway.

AA growing organically by 20% will cause harm on the industry as a whole.

In the end the only reason the plan was put forth was because US airways was making their move against horton.

I see the next plan B as being a dismantling of AA in parts and leaving AA as a mid tier major like us airways is now. Who knows maybe parker has his eye on snapping up the Miami hub.

FWAAA

My post isn't about AA employees, and further, I didn't fail to realize anything. How 'bout you stick to the topic and focus less on me? I'm not the topic.

Didn't know that. I guess Horton really is as stupid as y'all been saying he is.

Lobby? Lobby whom? The Department of Justice? I guess when the toolbox is full of hammers, everything starts to look like a nail.

hillrider

Wow. Incredible (in the real sense of the word).

Can you please teach us poor FTers how does it work in going from $5.8b in cash, positive cash flow (+$1b y/y), record revenues, record PRASM and record net income to "dismantling in parts", presumably without the external shocks (e.g. someone causing an accident to a AA plane)?

Are you forecasting this to take place in a week, in a month, or in a quarter?

tom911

But 9 months ago there was dissension:
Some American Airlines Pilots Start A Website To Oppose US Airways Merger

Did this group come back into the pro-merger fold?

tom911

That's sort of like the AA employees dropping petitions with 8,000 signatures off at DOJ in Tulsa today asking them to drop their antitrust suit on the merger. Do they really think that employee petitions are going to sway DOJ? It sounds like a move of desperation to me.

Kootur

Ah yes you mean Chris AKA jet head? This guy is clown at aa and only got about 50 super senior guys. These are the same guys that would sell out the rest of everyone else.

I bet there were mroe us air guys against this that aa.

Chris is a joke around here, he's afraid to fly in dca and always "Takes full tanks".

Biggie Fries

Look, even though I will be happy to see the merger go away, I don't begrudge AA or US employees wanting it to go through. Who doesn't want to get paid more? I make (a) less than I want and (b) more than most of you think I'm worth ... and I'm guessing everybody could make those two statements.

If the merger promises a better contract, why shouldn't the employees want that?

Just like the flyers would like all those promises about better service and no fare increases and blah blah blah.

Yes, I recognize that the labor stuff is contractual and, yes, I suppose that some of those other guarantees could be written in the sand, or wherever ....

Unfortunately, an oligopoly most benefits ... the oligopolists. And it does so in a way that does not grow the pie. It will shrink the pie, at the eventual expense of labor, and the more immediate expense of consumers (save those who occupy positions that are, to a first approximation, not sensitive to price).

FWAAA

If the merger is blocked, it's either Plan A or liquidation. And given that AA is currently larger and more profitable than any prior legacy airline emerging from bankruptcy (larger than US or UA or DL or NW when they all emerged from Ch 11), the odds that the AA creditors choose liquidation are practically zero.

So what? Who cares whether it harms the industry? Talking heads have long said that AA's network is too small to effectively compete, and if the merger is blocked, growth becomes the only realistic alternative.

To be clear, you're talking about the actual Horton 20% growth plan over five years which equals 3.7% per year, right? You're not talking about Holly's ignorant, misinformed and biased rantings where she repeatedly posted that it called for 20% per year, right? I would submit that anyone who actually believes that 3.7% annual growth at AA (which will be the low-cost legacy, except for US) is not achievable does not understand much about the industry.

Horton released the plan on February 1, 2012, just two months after the bankruptcy filing.

Of course the Wall St "analysts" don't like the idea, as they would prefer that AA not "harm the industry" as a whole - they've recommended UAL and DAL stock to their clients and don't want anyone upsetting the apple cart.

Uhh, yeah. Right. Liquidation is the next step. Thanks for playing.

I understand many of the reasons that the pro-merger crowd doesn't want to see AA emerge from Ch 11 as an independent airline. A lot of people have staked their reputation on their assertions that AA would quickly fail if that happens. If, on the other hand, AA were to grow and thrive, they would once again feel the sting of being wrong. I get it - many people absolutely hate being wrong.

jfinsocal

The proposed merger (or not) will have a pretty significant effect on not only the airline industry but also the nation's economy. If allowed to go forward there's no going back.

With something of this importance and permanence, why not take your time and get it right? Let each side prepare throughly and let the cards fall where they lie per se. With this in mind, let's hope the judge sets the trial date after the first of the year.

Jacobin777

I think Horton isn't as stupid as many think he is. Maybe he's quite positive of the outcome and figures "why not, at least I should show some kind of superficial lip-service support for this merger".

wr_schwab

US & AA got a November date for the trial. It may end up getting wrapped up before the Dec 13 deadline where either party could walk away.

AA_EXP09

Most PAX were against it.

Fanjet

You know this how again? AA and US fly a few hundred thousand people each day on their aircraft.