I wouldn't go that far (yet). Apparently in years past it was announced on the later side.

I am getting increasingly nervous, though. :(

Only last year was the Double EQM offer announced in September. In previous years, United made October announcements, even as late as October 17, so it is still possible for the promo to be offered.

we are Vultures waiting for the promo...

That's what I did for my Christmas flight this year since the DEQM promo usually ends around 12/15. I bought early and got a QUP fare from SEA-RDU. (I've made it a policy to fly F for the Christmas flights either paying for the trip on QUPs or upgrading with miles...)

I've got at least one more trip, maybe two, for work that I've not yet booked in hopes of being able to take advantage of the DEQM promo by knowing which fare buckets to pick from. *fingers crossed*

See post #222. Not counting last year, the earliest DEQM has been annnounced - in the three preceding years 2003-2005 - was on October 9.

Since we're heading towards the weekend, the earliest it could now be announced this year is October 8.

Thankfully so far I've been able to hold off all my purchases by putting them on hold every day, but if by the end of next week there has been no announcement I will personally assume there is no DEQM this year.

If there is no announcement by October 17 or October 24, then it is cause for concern. However, I think the promo will occur, as United will want to increase its profits.

Not to get anyone's hopes up (including my own), but I'll go out on a limb and say that the DEQM price of admission could go down this year from last year. There are various factors, but I imagine it's largely a financial optimization calculation - add up the DEQM fees plus the revenue from increased travel by FTers panicked to get higher status or more CR-1s, and subtract out the costs associated with additional elite members and their benefits. In my opinion, the huge jump in price last year was an experiment to see how price sensitive we all are. If the numbers dropped significantly from '05 to '06, it might be more profitable for UA to drop the price this year. We can all hope :rolleyes:

I don't think this is an optimization problem...since U = max profit...

There are a lot of unsubstantiated (and, if you ask me, wrong) assumptions in this post. That said, I agree with the last sentence :D.

I suspect it will be based on their analysis of the response last year. Doing an early announcement at a much higher price in 2006 gave them a chance to initiate an additional revenue producing program if the DEQM failed. Now that they have results from last year (which we do not) they will do the optimization. Still considering a MR to the xmas markets in Europe myself for my last 10K but its getting hard to fit it in with all the other travel that I have scheduled.

I wouldn't be surprised if UA doesn't do it and lets the chip's fall where they may. They plan on new biz and fc suites with less seats. Capacity is down and seatcount is up: and so are the prices. They may figure the can make more by not offering it, not swelling the top tier (and the problem of no UGs avail) and disgrunted real 1k's I think it would be funny if there was no DEQM and the prices were sky high and the beancounters watched all the people that were short on status pay thru the nose to make it. or stayed where they normally would be. :p

I agree, tripelite. I think we'll see no higher $$ than last year, and potentially lower.

If we didn't have any unsubstantiated/wrong posts in this thread (or for that matter, in this entire forum), there would be a small fraction of the posts. Where would the fun be in that? On the other hand, we would all have so much more free time... :) Before someone starts flaming me, I love this forum, I find it incredibly valuable, and I recommend it to all my airborne friends and colleagues. I personally get a kick out of all the speculation.

Some of you think that United has a big problem with having too many 1K's as a result of the double eqm/eqs program. I would say that since most 1K's get their upgrades (we have almost always gotten them and have been 1K lite for the last few years) there are hardly any disgruntled 1K's to deal with. It costs them almost nothing to make a 1K happy by upgrading. A few drinks, a slightly better meal (getting worse by the minute). I would say that United's greatest concern is maximizing the revenue from the fee we pay by multiplying the number of buyers by the fee. Wouldn't we all love to know how those numbers have been shaking out over the years? They must have felt they could justify the big hike last year. Wonder how it worked out for them. We could start a thread of flyertalkers who bought all the other years and whether they bought last year or not. Extrapolate. Etc. Keeping us busy until our fate is cast.