SEA1K4EVR

While yes the inventory is indeed capacity controlled it is far more available than the capacity for comp upgrades on cheaper fares... the capacity is separate from the capacity used for other upgrades given to upgraders using miles or waiting for comp upgrades (these clear into the "R" or "RN" buckets). For 1K instant upgrades on a B or M fare you clear into the "PN" fare bucket... there is far more chance of clearing there. If you are on a Y fare you clear into the JN bucket and there is even less capacity control.

If you consistently buy M fares on domestic flights as a 1K your clearance rate will be near 100%, if not 100%. Heck, if you buy Q fares you'll do very well even without the instant upgrade..but you won't be at 100%.

Kacee

Actually, all GS upgrades clear into PN. No upgrades clear into RN.

Nope. Y instant upgrades also clear into PN.


Not even close to true. Not with current premium loads and all the UP/UPDI fares.

SEA1K4EVR

Since R=RN presently... and since I've had many upgrades clear into RN myself whether they were supposed to or not..I mentioned it. Hair splitting..you're incorrect that no upgrades clear into RN..they do indeed.

Also I stand by my statement on M fares for domestic flights.. at or near 100%. Always will be exceptions.

IAH-OIL-TRASH

I personally think it's hard to move away from a dominant carrier at your local airport. I don't think the extra hassle in flying is worth the difference between programs.

Kacee

Here's just one very recent report:

It's not uncommon these days for F to book full on hub-to-hubs days in advance.

lincolnjkc

I also think that they're getting smarter about holding space back for IrOps.

A few months ago (booked F) they wound up FIMing me to American in F because of a maintenance issue and I made it clear I wouldn't accept a downgrade.

Last week I was talking the long way home, again in F (MCI-ORD-DCA-CLE), the ORD-DCA took a 1hr + MX delay so I would have misconnected in DCA... they pulled me off the aircraft and put me right into the last available F seat on a ORD-CLE.

(Somewhat proving my point of "I'd rather fly an extra segment than spend more time in ORD", the DCA-CLE flight I should have been on landed on time at 7pm. The ORD-CLE flight, scheduled to get in at 5-something, landed at 7:25....)

physioprof

Nowadays, my experience is that it is mostly cheaper to just purchase a domestic P or Z fare (sometimes even A) than a Y/B/M instant upgrade for transcons (mostly EWR-SNA, EWR-SAN, EWR-LAX, and EWR-SFO).

jjmoore

Will fly SFO-DEN on Friday... ended up buying up for a fairly decent price from M to A.

Sunday, I will fly DEN-SFO again... My M class upgraded this morning finally after some PN opened up. First one of these I have had in a long while without paying up or accepting a middle seat in Y..

scnzzz

Looking at UA 1922 SFO-EWR in October (20th). It's an internationally configured 752 (16 BF, 45 Y+, 108 Y-) UA.com says F9 A0 JN9 C0 D0 Z0 ZN0 P0 PN0 R0 RN0. I'm probably going to book an M fare. As a 1k any guesses as to chances of PN inventory opening up?

Thanks all

lincolnjkc

This far out and with F9+ based on my experience (but not on SFO-EWR specifically) I'd say it's almost certain -- though you may need to watch it closely as PN can open and close with little warning.

Though... isn't SFO-EWR PS (and do upgrades apply to PS routes?) I don't do transcon so I haven't paid much attention to that change/what it actually means.

RobOnLI

You need to use an RPU or a GPU for p.s. configured flights (including when they change to EWR in October from JFK). There are no Y/B/M fare upgrades on p.s. flights. Instrument only or pay for it.

So if you're on an M fare and you apply an instrument you have a very high chance of clearing. A "G" fare not as much.

-RM

WineCountryUA

The PS switch to EWR does not start until Oct 25th, so the OP's flight will be prior to the designation of flights from EWR as PS. So there is a reasonable likelihood the flight on 20th Oct is CPU eligible and therefore Instant Upgrade eligible. The regular EWR<>LAX lie flat aircraft has been CU eligible (but little chance of CPU).
The best wait to tell is for the OP to check once booked and see if the CPU flag is showing. Then OP can use the free 24 hour cancel if it is not.

RobOnLI

Correct. Missed the exact date of the change. If it's before the JFK service moves to EWR then Y/B/M should still apply as well as CPU. An "M" fare booking into "PN" is highly likely IMO based on current loads.

-RM

Kacee

Slightly higher than the risk of a swap to a less desirable aircraft.

exerda

I noticed something odd with an M fare yesterday. Was looking at IAD-ITO, and my choices for the outbound were in Z/P for paid F, or in M with PN available, or W for upgrade roulette.

If I booked paid Z/P on the outbound, the trip was cheaper than if I booked M on the outbound. Must have been some combinability rule, but booking M made the cheaper Y fares unavailable for the return (and bumped the return up enough that it was, overall, a more expensive ticket than paid F on the outbound).

Baffling.