CDSEA

The yeilds in all 6 of those markets are pretty trashy. With the long (expensive) flights from SFO those places it makes a lot more sense for UAL to connect those passengers.

I'm surprised by the talk about BKK, traditionally a pretty poor market from a RASK standpoint. Yeilds to TLV on the other hand are pretty good.
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cerealmarketer

Wonder how a SFO-GRU/SCL/EZE would look from a yield standpoint.

Would have figured SFO-DEL or BOM would be an easy one but I guess with 2x Air India SFO-DEL and biz fares only in the $3k roundtrip range it's a tough one right now.

CDSEA

My guess is that Air India doesn't make money on those flights. They're state run so it's kinda moot. Since the Gulf Carriers have grown USA-India has become very low yeilding. The business traffic for UA likley goes over FRA or Zurich.

GRU to the West Coast is really only served by AA out of LAX and I think it's only 5X a week. LATAM does LIM 2X daily from LAX and SCL 3 or 4X a week. UA probably prefers to flow that traffic over IAH but the yeilds are at least higher.

uastarflyer

spartacusmcfly

RASK (Revenue Per Available Seat Kilometer) isn's a good way to look at the India or Thailand markets for a variety of reasons. What's more important is can you sell enough C seats. United provided a glimpse into that metric by upgrading the EWR-BOM flight to a 77W -- so there is increasing demand in C.

It's a shame United doesn't attack markets with weak competitors. Air India and Thai are in fiscal shambles. Why attack Cathay, Singapore and the well funded Chinese carriers by chasing CAN, HGX, SZX, XIY -- that to, without the Polaris product in the 78x fleet. To UA's credit, I think they've done a good job eating El Al's lunch with their huge expansion into TLV. I think they can do the same in India and Thailand.

PsiFighter37

I think the business argument for launching SFO-India makes a lot more sense than SFO-BKK. That said, I imagine that EK's coverage of DXB-secondary Indian cities is far more appealing (if you have to connect) vs. SFO-DEL/BOM and connect to Air India there.

Assuming IAD-TLV does well, ORD-TLV does seem to be a logical route to launch next. If anything, it seems like the higher-profile international route launches (e.g. LAX-SIN, SFO-MUC/ZRH, IAH-SYD) seem to be on routes where UA is focused on strengthening coverage to existing locations. It feels like the 'new' destinations (e.g. PPT, KEF, OPO) are flyers being taken on seasonal routes that can be dropped easily enough if they do not perform. I'm honestly not sure how UA plans on making any money on EWR-KEF given how low Icelandair and WOW fares are...

spartacusmcfly

True, but the same EK dynamic exists out of EWR and UA is thriving. Only difference is Polaris out of EWR vs non-Polaris 789s from SFO.

How much water can you squeeze out of the TLV rock? Probably enough meetings between CIA and Mossad alone to justify IAD route, but ultimately Tel Aviv has the same population as Brooklyn...

I'm hoping PPT makes it. I think there's good demand from west coast for PPT. I agree with you on KEF. Barring a WOW bankruptcy, I don't see how that route makes it.

I believe:

- 77W can go SFO-DEL & SFO- BKK
- Would need a 789 to go SFO-BOM or SFO-BLR

username

I have always wondered about Wuhan in China. Isn't it supposed to be a big industrial center?

West Coast - Latin America might be good for some Asian/Oceania connections?

PsiFighter37

To be fair, DL has flown JFK-KEF for a while (I think), so maybe there is a way to make it work. But I have to imagine that UA can make quite a bit more money using that sCO 752 on a p.s. TCON route. IMO, it might be an ideal route for a 737 MAX 9/10 once there are enough of those in-house...

Not sure that is the right analogy...I have never been to Israel, but isn't TLV basically the international gateway for the entire country, not just Tel Aviv itself?

pushmyredbutton

Wuhan is a fairly large industrial center. However, China Southern already serves it via SFO; not sure UA would want to double capacity on what's likely an already thin route (CZ continues to CAN). There's currently no carriers via LAX, but LAX also has an overcapacity of mainland China service at the moment.

I find Latin America/South America more interesting; the *A connections options are terrible without detouring to IAH or taking Copa. Perhaps SFO-BOG would work to connect to the AV feed.

spartacusmcfly

Yes, but it's just not a big country. Population = NYC population. Also, TLV not a practical connection to anywhere. Neighboring countries (Turkey, Gulf, Egypt) all have ample direct flights. In the old days, it was a connection point to India for TWA, but Gulf airlines have taken that business...

jamesinclair

Anyone know if the Fresno-Chicago flight has performed well? It was a new destination this year, but only for summer

FATFlyer

My understanding is the the FAT-ORD loads have been good but the front of the plane was filled nearly exclusively with upgraded frequent flyers. How the overall financial performance of the flight is evaluated will determine if it returns next summer.

PsiFighter37

jamesinclair

Surely they expected that, FAT isnt an F market, the airport doesn't even have a basic shared lounge