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[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

[Consolidated] Chance of upgrade clearing on my flight

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Old Jul 24, 19, 7:53 pm
  #1426  
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
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Originally Posted by NgatesSEA View Post
How do these flights look for a 1k using GPU or cash+miles on a Sunday departure in mid-August SFO-ICN, returning Friday in mid-Aug ICN-SFO? I will book in M class outbound and A (Premium Plus) for return.
  • UA893 SFO-ICN (779 w/o PP) Sunday: J9 C9 D9 Z0 P0 Y9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 Q9 V9 W3 S3 T0 L0 K0 G0 N9 (18/48 C booked)
  • UA806 ICN-SFO (772 w/ PP) Friday:_J9 C9 D9 Z8 P3 O9 A7 R1 Y9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 Q1 V0 W0 S0 T0 L0 K0 G0 N9 (13/24 C booked)
Thanks
The 13/24 you quote for UA806 must be for the PP section. What's the number for Polaris Business? With an A fare for PP you will be high up in the priority for the upgrade to Polaris Business.
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Old Jul 25, 19, 1:29 am
  #1427  
 
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Originally Posted by dkc192 View Post
I like your chances, decidedly more so on the return than on the outbound, but both seem doable. Last I checked, 806/805 had plenty of confirmable PZ 1-3 months out. Can you confirm the booked load though? 13/24 seems wrong. If it's in fact 13/50, then I'd feel pretty good.

893/892 seem to be more popular with premium pax, and the Z0 P0 inventory suggests UA thinks it can sell the remaining 30 seats at high-ish D fares. But given you're flying less than a month out, I'd still not feel terrible about your odds. Maybe 50/50 or slightly worse.
​​​​​​​Thank you!

Originally Posted by StuckinITH View Post
The 13/24 you quote for UA806 must be for the PP section. What's the number for Polaris Business? With an A fare for PP you will be high up in the priority for the upgrade to Polaris Business.
Indeed. The Polaris business cabin is currently booked 27/50.
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Old Jul 25, 19, 10:45 am
  #1428  
 
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Originally Posted by NgatesSEA View Post
​​​​​​​Indeed. The Polaris business cabin is currently booked 27/50.
Hmm. With 27/50 booked, I'm slightly less bullish and would downgrade my prediction to 50/50 or so.
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Old Jul 25, 19, 11:13 am
  #1429  
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Originally Posted by dkc192 View Post
Hmm. With 27/50 booked, I'm slightly less bullish and would downgrade my prediction to 50/50 or so.
Weekend TPACs are difficult. A fare helps, but I'd be much more optimistic on a weekday.
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Old Jul 25, 19, 11:13 am
  #1430  
 
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Originally Posted by dkc192 View Post
Hmm. With 27/50 booked, I'm slightly less bullish and would downgrade my prediction to 50/50 or so.
My $0.002 fwiw. I agree, popular flight at popular time (mid August). The good point is it is a Friday flight. From SFO to ICN is a huge business run out of the Bay Area (my wife takes this run like a bus to work) but most leave on Saturday or Sunday to hit Seoul running on Monday or Tuesday with the time/day change.
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Old Jul 25, 19, 12:04 pm
  #1431  
 
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Originally Posted by nomad420 View Post
My $0.002 fwiw. I agree, popular flight at popular time (mid August). The good point is it is a Friday flight. From SFO to ICN is a huge business run out of the Bay Area (my wife takes this run like a bus to work) but most leave on Saturday or Sunday to hit Seoul running on Monday or Tuesday with the time/day change.
You have the flights a little confused. The SFO-ICN is on a Sunday which is a huge business run day to hit Seoul. The return is on a Friday which is also heavily preferred by Business travelers. But the high fares might be helpful.

But I agree that going from the US to Asia is not as bad on Fridays. It was an easy upgrade on ORD-PVG: by that I mean it cleared a month in advance on a W fare. For the return on a Thursday I had to wait until T-23 for the upgrade to clear even though it was only sold 33/50. I was watching the weather report for a few days worrying about typhoons that would cancel some flights and was also watching for mechanicals on other routes.
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Old Jul 25, 19, 3:57 pm
  #1432  
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Originally Posted by StuckinITH View Post
But I agree that going from the US to Asia is not as bad on Fridays.
Agree. I've cleared SFO-HKG on Friday quite a few times. I don't attempt Saturdays or Sundays in either direction.
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Old Jul 25, 19, 4:20 pm
  #1433  
 
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Originally Posted by NgatesSEA View Post
How do these flights look for a 1k using GPU or cash+miles on a Sunday departure in mid-August SFO-ICN, returning Friday in mid-Aug ICN-SFO? I will book in M class outbound and A (Premium Plus) for return.
  • UA893 SFO-ICN (779 w/o PP) Sunday: J9 C9 D9 Z0 P0 Y9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 Q9 V9 W3 S3 T0 L0 K0 G0 N9 (18/48 C booked)
  • UA806 ICN-SFO (772 w/ PP) Friday:_J9 C9 D9 Z8 P3 O9 A7 R1 Y9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 Q1 V0 W0 S0 T0 L0 K0 G0 N9 (13/24 C booked)
Thanks
Why would you book M on the outbound and A on the return? R on the return will almost certainly be enough as a 1K, and the cost savings is likely large. Heck, for the price of the copay and R/A fare, you are probably better off grabbing the P directly (without looking at the price)

You're paying a *huge* effective copay on grabbing M vs S + copay... I mean there is no Z space, but aren't you looking at $1k + miles to grab a business seat? That's a lot of money....

I don't know how your copay couples into this, however.
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Old Jul 25, 19, 5:30 pm
  #1434  
 
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Originally Posted by ryman554 View Post
Why would you book M on the outbound and A on the return? R on the return will almost certainly be enough as a 1K, and the cost savings is likely large. Heck, for the price of the copay and R/A fare, you are probably better off grabbing the P directly (without looking at the price)

You're paying a *huge* effective copay on grabbing M vs S + copay... I mean there is no Z space, but aren't you looking at $1k + miles to grab a business seat? That's a lot of money....

I don't know how your copay couples into this, however.
Who knows? Maybe the employer has a policy that they don't purchase Business travel but below that they don't care about the price. Maybe on the days of travel, the delta to Business is huge. The chances of upgrades are higher with the higher fares. S + copay and the passenger will most probably find that Economy + is painful......
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Old Jul 25, 19, 5:36 pm
  #1435  
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Originally Posted by StuckinITH View Post
The chances of upgrades are higher with the higher fares.
In theory, sure. In practice, I can't imagine there's much of a difference except for potentially buying up from W to V (for a GS/1K, to bypass everyone who is buying the minimum GPU'able fare). I assume the OP has other reasons for buying those fares -- maybe they're the cheapest flexible fare; maybe they're connecting from somewhere and the connection is nearly sold out. If the intent is to goose upgrade chances... it's not likely to matter.
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Old Jul 25, 19, 6:23 pm
  #1436  
 
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UA 952 ORD-MUC on Friday, August 9 on a 772.

I'm 1K using a GUC on a B fare. There appear to be 9 biz seats left from the seat map.

What do folks think my chances are?

Also, how do I check to see what the offers are for a buy up to biz? With the certificate applied I'm not seeing any offers....

J9 C9 D9 Z6 P5 Y9 B9 M9 E9 U9 H9 Q9V9 W9 S9 T9 L9 K9 G0 N9

Last edited by Irish93DCA; Jul 25, 19 at 6:42 pm
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Old Jul 25, 19, 9:50 pm
  #1437  
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Originally Posted by Irish93DCA View Post
UA 952 ORD-MUC on Friday, August 9 on a 772.

I'm 1K using a GUC on a B fare. There appear to be 9 biz seats left from the seat map.

What do folks think my chances are?
With the B fare, you have a chance. Really difficult to predict, though P5 suggests UA doesn't think there's much demand the next two weeks, which is a mildly positive sign for you.

And it's GPU
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Old Jul 25, 19, 11:15 pm
  #1438  
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Originally Posted by Kacee View Post
With the B fare, you have a chance. Really difficult to predict, though P5 suggests UA doesn't think there's much demand the next two weeks, which is a mildly positive sign for you.

And it's GPU
I miss the future flight status tool already.

There are actually 12 seats free on the seat map -- it's the old three-class config, but 1CHK now count as business class also.

I'm quite surprised that a Friday would be P5 two weeks out. Perhaps they're just anticipating less business travel since it's August.

The chances are still iffy, though. The B fare definitely helps, but a couple of sales, a couple of buy-ups, and a couple of GSes, and OP could end up in E+ at #1 on the standby list.

OP: to answer your other question, once you've applied a certificate, UA generally suppresses the buy-up information. I think they had too many complaints from people who felt that they were trying to sell them the upgrade that they're already waitlisted for. A UA agent may be able to tell you what the buy-up would be. They could certainly tell you the fare difference to the lowest business class fare, but note that it may be more restrictive than your B fare (in particular, it might be nonrefundable, whereas most B fares are fully refundable).
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Old Jul 25, 19, 11:32 pm
  #1439  
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Originally Posted by jsloan View Post
There are actually 12 seats free on the seat map -- it's the old three-class config, but 1CHK now count as business class also.

I'm quite surprised that a Friday would be P5 two weeks out. Perhaps they're just anticipating less business travel since it's August.

The chances are still iffy, though. The B fare definitely helps, but a couple of sales, a couple of buy-ups, and a couple of GSes, and OP could end up in E+ at #1 on the standby list.
Booked 37/48.

It could go either way. Sometimes sales go flat the last two weeks.
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Old Jul 25, 19, 11:45 pm
  #1440  
 
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Originally Posted by StuckinITH View Post
You have the flights a little confused. The SFO-ICN is on a Sunday which is a huge business run day to hit Seoul. The return is on a Friday which is also heavily preferred by Business travelers. But the high fares might be helpful.
You are correct: outbound on Sunday SFO-ICN. On this Sunday, there is only one flight, UA893, and no UA805 with Premium Plus. Our return ICN-SFO is on Friday. Thanks to all for the input.

Originally Posted by ryman554 View Post
Why would you book M on the outbound and A on the return? R on the return will almost certainly be enough as a 1K, and the cost savings is likely large. Heck, for the price of the copay and R/A fare, you are probably better off grabbing the P directly (without looking at the price)

You're paying a *huge* effective copay on grabbing M vs S + copay... I mean there is no Z space, but aren't you looking at $1k + miles to grab a business seat? That's a lot of money....

I don't know how your copay couples into this, however.
A on the return is Premium Plus, and is only $200 more than the current lowest-available coach fare. My company has economy fares that book into M. Unfortunately, business is $2k more than any coach+coach or coach+PP fare.

Thanks for the question about copays, I tried a lot of combinations to make business work but couldn't unfortunately. I'm returning to DEN and was surprised (and tempted) seeing business class fares ICN-SFO-DEN-COS only $800 more than ICN-SFO-DEN coach (!) and more than $3,500 less than ICN-SFO-DEN business. I probably would have done it to try the new Polaris on UA806 but that fare was only on the 789 UA894.
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